2020 NFL Early-Draft Exploits: VOA vs. ADP for Tight Ends

Recently, I introduced three metrics for fantasy football: Value Over Starter (VOS), Value Over Average (VOA), and Value Over Replacement (VOR). The idea behind the concept was simple. Take position scarcity into account and calculate how each player overperformed or underperformed when compared to those with starter/average/replacement value at that concrete position. With that in mind, it is easy to identify who provides the most value at each skill position, how the players pertaining to it rank in similar tiers, and who should be drafted earlier based on how many more points he provides compared to his peers.

Now that the 2019 season is well behind us and we're already locked into what is about to come in just a few months time, it is time to check the drafts and ADP values before the NFL draft to see who is going under the radar and who is being massively overvalued this time of the year.

I already went through the data in another column as an introduction to the positional breakdown I'll be doing next. Using VOA+ and ADP, I will try to identify overvalued players at each position and picks going under the radar worth taking later in drafts given their performance levels when compared to the average starter at the position. Let's get it going.

Overvalued/Undervalued Tight Ends by VOA/ADP

With the data at hand (that is, the 2019 VOA+ and 2020 ADP values of each player as of this writing), it is time to try and find some players going off the board way earlier than they should considering the value they provide compared to other players at the position. In order to do so in an objective way, I have made a simple calculation: VOA squared to ADP. Those with higher values would carry the best value/price and those with the lowest the worst. Imagine two players with a VOA+ of 200 going first overall and 100th overall. You'd definitely want the second one (same production, 100 times cheaper), and in fact, his value would be much higher (200^100 against 200^1) than that of the first player.

First of all, here is how both VOA+ and ADP compare for players at the tight end position.

As you can see, only 10 tight ends yielded more than average starter production in 2019. That is the fewest number of players at any of the four offensive positions (quarterback was second with 11). That means that in 12-team leagues, two fantasy owners had to start a below-average producer weekly, which in turn means that this position has a high scarcity that makes it worth taking a surefire player early in redraft leagues.

Right now, the only TE going off the board inside the first two rounds is George Kittle (ADP 24.0), yet he produced fewer fantasy points and played to a lesser level than No. 1 in VOA+ last season (177.4) Travis Kelce who currently has a 25.8 ADP. Even at their high prices, both of them are worth taking early.

ADP Values

Going a little bit down the ADP leaderboard (to the right of the chart above) we find the first market inefficiencies:

• All of Zach Ertz (153), Mark Andrews (147), and Darren Waller (157) had very similar VOA+ marks last year to that of George Kittle, but none of them is being drafted inside the first four rounds. You can get a similarly productive player to Kittle as many as 30 positions (or two and a half rounds) later in the draft!
• Don't get lost in that trio, though, and move your eyes down the plot. Yes, that red cross in there labeled "Evan Engram" has a 49.3 ADP while he only posted a 74 VOA+ last season. Surely, he played in just eight games and VOA+ is a counting stat, but the risk is not worth taking given the players at the position going later and their proved levels of production.
• Austin Hooper didn't have his best season in 2019 but was one of the best players at the position even missing three games, and is now part of a more loaded offense. His value/price is not as high as that of the other three players highlighted above, but he's definitely worth taking at his ADP.

Further down the ADP leaderboard, we get to the actual bargains at the position:

• Both Jared Cook and Tyler Higbee played to better levels than both Hunter Henry and Dallas Goedert, yet they're being drafted way later, already inside the 11th round of early drafts. If you pass on drafting your starting tight end early or straight punt on the position, consider adding any of them really late or through waivers once the draft is completed.
• The opposite goes for Noah Fant, O.J. Howard, T.J. Hockenson, Vance McDonald, and most of all David Njoku. Even while playing to horrific levels compared to the average TE (none of them even reached an 80 VOA+ in 2019) all are being drafted inside the first ten rounds of drafts. All of them have fantasy reasons to improve next season (Fant and Hockenson becoming sophomores, Howard playing under Tom Brady, Njoku... nothing to see here) but those are subjective what-ifs you should avoid.

Finally, here are the top three players to target and to avoid at the tight end position given their VOA+ marks from 2019 and their current ADPs:

• Top-3 TEs to Target: Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz.
• Top-3 TEs to Avoid: Noah Fant, Evan Engram, David Njoku

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