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It’s draft day! Hopeful NFL fans are optimistic and excited, ready for their favorite team to ace the draft. For some fanbases, the reality may be more disappointing. Part of the fun of the NFL Draft is the uncertainty of it. "Chalk" mock drafts rarely turn out to be even remotely accurate.
Creating a mock draft for accuracy is usually an exercise in futility. After the first trade, the whole thing usually crumbles. No matter how much scouting, research, and Vegas line-reading someone can do - mocks are tough. So why make one? Because that's just what draftniks do.
This is my final stab at it. You can also see my Mock Draft 1.0 and Mock Draft 2.0. These NFL Draft projections are what I believe will happen tonight, not what I would do if I were making the picks.
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Round One - The Top 10
1. Bengals - Joe Burrow - QB, LSU
Joe Burrow is probably on Day 14 of install at this point.
2.Redskins - Chase Young - EDGE, Ohio St.
Chase Young will help give the Redskins one of the best defensive lines in football next year.
Projected Trade – Dolphins get pick No. 3. Lions get picks No. 5 and No. 39.
3. Dolphins (f/DET) - Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Alabama
It doesn't make any sense for the Dolphins to make this move for anyone but Tua Tagovailoa.
4. Giants - Tristan Wirfs - OT, Iowa
The Giants go with Tristan Wirfs because of his right tackle experience and athleticism.
5. Lions (f/MIA) - Derrick Brown - DT, Auburn
The Lions could go Jeff Okudah here, but reports say they are high on Derrick Brown.
Projected Trade – Falcons get pick No. 6. Chargers get picks No. 16, No. 47 and a 2021 1st-round pick.
6. Falcons (f/LAC) - Jeff Okudah - CB, Ohio State
Rumors are swirling about the Falcons trading up for an impact defender.
7. Panthers - Isaiah Simmons - LB, Clemson
The Panthers need help at safety and linebacker. Isaiah Simmons can play safety and linebacker.
8. Cardinals - Andrew Thomas - OT, Georgia
The Cardinals could go C.J. Henderson here, but decide Andrew Thomas is the best player available.
Projected Trade – Buccaneers get pick No. 9. Jaguars get picks No. 14 and No. 45.
9. Buccaneers (f/ARI) - Jedrick Wills Jr. - OT, Alabama
The Buccaneers need to protect Tom Brady. Jedrick Wills Jr. gave up just one sack at Alabama.
Projected Trade – Eagles get pick No. 10. Browns get picks No. 21, No. 53, and No. 103.
10. Eagles (f/CLE) - CeeDee Lamb - WR, Oklahoma
This draft is deep at wide receiver, but the Eagles jump the Jets for Carson Wentz’s future WR1.
Round One - #11-20
11. Jets - Mekhi Becton - OT, Louisville
The Jets miss out on Lamb so go tackle before focusing on receivers on day two.
12. Raiders - C.J. Henderson
The Raiders have a need at cornerback and C.J. Henderson has shutdown potential.
13. 49ers (f/IND) - Henry Ruggs III - WR, Alabama
The 49ers go with the speedy teammate of Jerry Jeudy due to question marks about Jeudy’s knee.
14. Jaguars (f/TB) - Javon Kinlaw - DT, S. Carolina
The Jaguars wanted Javon Kinlaw all along and add some extra picks in the process.
15. Broncos - Justin Jefferson - WR, LSU
The Broncos need an outside wide receiver and a slot wide receiver. Justin Jefferson can play both. Not at the same time, though. I think.
16. Chargers (f/ATL) - K'Lavon Chaisson - EDGE, LSU
The Chargers move down and pass on a quarterback for a high-upside pass-rusher.
17. Cowboys - Jerry Jeudy - WR, Alabama
The Cowboys are thrilled to land a sliding Leon Lett - I mean Jerry Jeudy.
18. Dolphins (f/PIT) - Xavier McKinney - S, Alabama
The Dolphins add a starting safety with a pick they got for trading a starting safety.
19. Raiders (f/CHI) - Denzel Mims - WR, Baylor
The Raiders can't pass on the dominant traits of Denzel Mims.
20. Jaguars (f/LAR) - Trevon Diggs - CB, Alabama
Trevon Diggs is rising up boards as the Jaguars continue to re-tool their defense.
Round One - #21-32
21. Browns (f/PHI) - Ezra Cleveland - OT, Boise St.
Ezra Cleveland lands in Cleveland as the Browns stockpile picks.
22. Vikings (f/BUF) - A.J. Terrell - CB, Clemson
The Vikings have a desperate need at cornerback.
23. Patriots - Justin Herbert - QB, Oregon
In the 2011 NFL Draft, Bill Belichick used the 74th overall pick on Ryan Mallett. Justin Herbert is like Ryan Mallett, but if he had a scantron.
24. Saints - Kenneth Murray - LB, Oklahoma
Kenneth Murray can step in and call the defense for Dennis Allen on day one.
25. Vikings - Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, USC
In a surprise pick, Michael Pittman Jr. and strong hands go to Minnesota.
26. Dolphins (f/HOU) - Jonathan Taylor - RB, Wisconsin
Brian Flores comes from New England, where a pounding early-down running back has some value. Jonathan Taylor can be the Dolphins non-terrible version of Sony Michel.
27. Seahawks - Austin Jackson - OT, USC
When this pick turns out to be Cam Akers or Zack Moss, Seahawks fans will still defend John Schneider. Schneider had an all-time great draft in 2012, but hasn’t hit on a first-round pick once since then.
28. Ravens - Patrick Queen - LB, LSU
Patrick Queen won’t call the defense, but he’ll run really fast and hit people, which fits the Ravens style.
29. Titans - A.J. Epenesa - EDGE, Iowa
A.J. Epenesa’s poor three-cone time might be a bad omen, but his toughness and length fit in well with Mike Vrabel’s smashmouth tendencies.
30. Packers - Jalen Reagor - WR, TCU
The Packers need a deep threat for Aaron Rodgers. Jalen Reagor has speed to burn.
Projected Trade – Chargers get pick No. 31. 49ers get picks No. 37 and No. 71.
31. Chargers (f/SF) - Jalen Hurts - QB, Oklahoma
Lamar Jackson may have changed the way teams evaluate running quarterbacks. The Bolts trade up to get the fifth-year option on Jalen Hurts.
32. Chiefs - Cesar Ruiz - C, Michigan
It makes perfect sense for a team that lacks speed like the Chiefs want to move up for Henry Ruggs III. That turns out to be smoke as they stay put and add yet another slow-footed player to their anemic offense.
Round 2
- Bengals - Cole Kmet - TE, Notre Dame
- Colts (f/WAS) - Jordan Love - QB, Utah St.
- Lions - Yetur Gross-Matos -EDGE, Penn St.
- Giants - Matt Hennessy - C, Temple
- 49ers (f/LAC) - Kristian Fulton - CB, LSU
- Panthers - Jordyn Brooks - LB, Texas Tech
- Lions (f/MIA) - D'Andre Swift - RB, Georgia
- Texans (f/ARI) - Curtis Weaver - EDGE, Boise State
- Browns - Antoine Winfield Jr. - S, Minnesota
- Jaguars - Isaiah Wilson - OT, Georgia
- Bears (f/LVR) - Grant Delpit - S, LSU
- Colts - Damon Arnette - CB, Ohio St.
- Jaguars (f/TB) - Jonathan Greenard - EDGE, Florida
- Broncos - Malik Harrison - LB, Ohio St.
- Chargers (f/ATL) - Brandon Aiyuk - WR, Arizona St.
- Jets - Tee Higgins - WR, Clemson
- Steelers - Jaylon Johnson - CB, Utah
- Bears - Josh Jones - OT, Houston
- Cowboys - Jeff Gladney - CB, TCU
- Rams - Zack Baun - EDGE, Wisconsin
- Browns (f/PHI) - Neville Gallimore - DL, Oklahoma
- Bills - J.K. Dobbins - RB, Ohio St.
- Ravens (f/NE t/ATL) - Ross Blacklock - DL, TCU
- Dolphins (f/NO) - Lloyd Cushenberry - C, LSU
- Rams (f/HOU) - Terrell Burgess - SCB, Utah
- Vikings - Josh Jones - OT, Houston
- Seahawks - Cam Akers - RB, Florida St.
- Ravens - Laviska Shenault Jr. - WR, Colorado
- Titans - Raekwon Davis DL Alabama
- Packers - Logan Wilson LB Wyoming
- Chiefs (f/SF) - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB, LSU
- Seahawks (f/KC) - Darrell Taylor - EDGE, Tennessee
Round 3
- Bengals - Julian Okwara - EDGE, Notre Dame
- Redskins - Jeremy Chinn - S, Southern Illinois
- Lions - Lucas Niang - OT, TCU
- Jets (f/NYG) - Josh Uche - EDGE, Michigan
- Panthers - Kyle Dugger - S, Lenoir-Rhyne
- Dolphins - Jordan Elliot - DL, Missouri
- 49ers (f/LAC) - Justin Madubuike - DL, Texas A&M
- Cardinals - K.J. Hamler - WR, Penn St.
- Jaguars - Bryan Edwards - WR, S. Carolina
- Browns - Damien Lewis - OG, LSU
- Colts - Tyler Johnson - WR, Minnesota
- Buccaneers - Marlon Davidson - EDGE, Auburn
- Broncos Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn
- Falcons - Davon Hamilton - DT, Ohio St.
- Jets - Lynn Bowden Jr. - WR, Kentucky
- Raiders - Jacob Eason - QB, Washington
- Raiders (f/CHI) - Chase Claypool - WR, Notre Dame
- Cowboys - Ashtyn Davis - S, Cal
- Broncos (f/PIT) - Ben Bartch - OG, St. Josephs
- Rams - Matt Peart - OT, Connecticut
- Lions (f/PHI) - Zack Moss - RB, Utah
- Bills - Bryce Hall - CB, Virginia
- Patriots - Anfernee Jennings - EDGE, Alabama
- Saints - Antonio Gibson - WR, Memphis
- Vikings - Reggie Robinson II - CB, Tulsa
- Texans - Jason Strowbridge - DT, North Carolina
- Raiders (f/SEA) - Jonah Jackson - OG, Ohio St.
- Ravens - Jabari Zuniga - EDGE, Florida
- Titans - Devin Duvernay - WR, Texas
- Packers - James Lynch - DL, Baylor
- Broncos (f/SF) - Donovan Peoples-Jones - WR, Michigan
- Chiefs - Cameron Dantzler - CB, Mississippi St.
- Browns (f/HOU)* - Amik Robertson - CB, La. Tech
- Patriots* - Alton Robinson - EDGE, Syracuse
- Giants* - Terrell Lewis - EDGE, Alabama
- Patriots* - Antonio Gandy-Golden - WR, Liberty
- Seahawks* - Nick Harris - C, Washington
- Steelers* - Saahdiq Charles - OT, LSU
- Browns (f/PHI)* - Akeem Davis-Gaither - LB, App. State
- Rams* - Van Jefferson - WR, Florida
- Vikings* - Isaiah Hodgins - WR, Oregon St.
- Ravens* - John Simpson - OG, Clemson
More NFL Draft Analysis
