RADIO
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs.
Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers at the forward position. For whatever reason -- be it talent, lack of opportunity, chances to rack up minutes, good and bad environments, etc-- these are players who fantasy GMs are currently buying at too high or too low ADPs this early in the pre-season.
Let's look at some guards that have bust/sleeper potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues looking at their early September ADPs.
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Undervalued: De'Aaron Fox - Sacramento Kings
Franchise player? Check. On-the-court leader? Double check. Possession hogger? Triple check. Marvelous, young, still-improving performer? Ultimate check. Fox, for reasons that escape my understanding, is currently getting drafted with an overall ADP of 43 and is the 20th guard getting off draft boards. That, just for context, means that the likes of Jrue Holiday, Ja Morant, and LaMelo Ball are all getting drafted before Fox does even though those players--eight total in the top-20--averaged fewer FP per game and per minute. Uh, oh.
The only concern about Fox's upside might be his potential involvement in a Ben Simmons trade, but I'm not buying into that happening. Fox played a healthy 58 games and an even better 35 MPG last season to close the 2021 campaign as a borderline top-20 player overall and 10th-best guard. Fox's 31% usage rate was sky-high and his 19+ FGA ranked in the top-10 in terms of volume among G-eligible players. While his rebounding is middling at best, Fox contributes tons of dimes (7+ APG) and is a steady force at stealing the ball (1.5 SPG) turning him into a unique guard--obviously, his large playing time helped him at that but it's not that Sacramento will stop heavily featuring him daily. It's virtually impossible to get a better finish than last year's, but Fox has gone from a top-60 player in 2020 to a top-20 last year, and if he can play a few more games next season there is a real chance of seeing him enter the top-10 realm in most fantasy leagues.
Overvalued: Zach LaVine - Chicago Bulls
It took Zach LaVine five years to make the leap, but he finally did so back in 2019 and he's never looked back. It's been three seasons in a row for ZLV finishing as a top-30 fantasy player while playing for a Bulls squad that was never loaded after Chicago went for it to close the 2021 season and doubled down on those efforts this summer adding Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, and DeMar DeRozan to the fold--after acquiring big man Vucevic last season. Nobody except LaVine topped a 29% usage rate in 2021 for the Bulls. Will that be the case in a much more crowded court come 2022? Let me doubt it.
I'm not saying LaVine doesn't hold value on pure efficiency, but the truth is that he needed a lot of large runs to reach that near-top-20 finish in 2021: ZLV played 35+ MPG in his 58 games and averaged 19+ FGA and 5+ FTA per game. Only 10 other guards averaged as many total shots (FGA+FTA) as LaVine, and not coincidentally all of them except Donovan Mitchell and Collin Sexton finished at-or-above LaVine's fantasy-point tally over the full season. The moment LaVine's loses some volume/opportunities next season (and it will happen), his value will go down. The ADP of 17 is crazy high and the Bulls won't be a one-man army for the full year as they were for most of the 2021 campaign when LaVine was active (he missed 13 of the last 15 games, not sharing the court with Vooch that much).
Undervalued: Klay Thompson - Golden State Warriors
Klay should be back this season for the Warriors. I say should because there is nothing guaranteed here: just last November Thompson was this close to getting on the court until a pre-season injury derailed that train. So let's keep calm and hope for the best here. Assuming he's healthy and back as soon as possible (no earlier than December, it seems), Klay would be able to play at least 6o-to-70 games, minute-restriction present or not. That's not bad, and definitely should be making Thompson the 73rd player off draft boards, where his ADP currently sits at.
Same as Kevin Durant's return from Achilles, Thompson shouldn't be affected that much once he's past his recovery period. Remember when Klay hit 60 pops on 11 dribbles? That's what I mean. The last time we saw Thompson doing it he finished as a top-20 player overall in 2019 fantasy leagues averaging exactly 1.00 FP/min while playing 34 MPG. That mark isn't mind-blowing compared to other players at the position, and Klay's underlying numbers and style of play make him a little bit of a shooting specialist (he posted a 21-4-2-1 line back then). The best thing about Klay's stats is that they seem to always be the same with staggering steadiness: in his last five seasons (all of them All-Star worthy) his lines have been 21-3-3-1, 22-4-2-1, 22-4-2-1, 20-4-2-1, and 21-4-2-1. For such a zero-volatility player putting up mighty scoring numbers and locked into a top-30 finish, his ADP is making Klay just a bargain these days.
Overvalued: Stephen Curry - Golden State Warriors
On the other side of the coin, though, Klay Thompson's (read above) teammate Steph is kinda overvalued by fantasy GMs all around the fantasy landscape entering 2022. I don't think there is a truly "overvaluing" process going on here, because you can really overvalue someone as Steph Curry, but if we're looking for ROI and value, then Curry's ADP of 2.5 is wildly high. In fact, it's only topped by Nikola Jokic's 1.2 ADP but even then Jokic's ROI should be higher given his do-it-all style and the simple fact that he's a big man, as simple as that.
Looking at Curry's 2021 numbers isn't going to help build a case against him for next year. Back from injury, playing 63 games and 34 MPG, and without Klay Thompson--nor, let's be honest, any potent offensive threat in GSW--around, last season was all for Chef Curry to cook himself tasty fantasy-meals daily. Thus the career-year he put together: 32-5-6-1 with 48/42/91 shooting splits on nearly 22 FGA and almost 13 3PA per game. Those were mental numbers, as simple as that. Steph has been averaging top-10 fantasy points for as long as we can remember when healthy, and that shouldn't change. But from that to paying such a hefty price as a 1st-overall pick there is a gap (even if it's small). You know what you're getting in Curry, he's a lock to hand you a fantastic production, but you can forget about turning Curry into a value as long as GMs keep drafting him as the bonafide no. 1 player in the Association. I wouldn't bet as high on him with the changes that are coming to GSW (Klay and Wiseman back) and the floating questions about a potential trade for Simmons/Beal/Dame if the opportunity arises.
Undervalued: Jaylen Brown - Boston Celtics
There is no arguing who's the head honcho of the last five years of Celtics basketball in Beantown. That's Jayson Tatum, just in case, though Jaylen Brown hasn't stopped improving since getting into the League and last season was the confirmation of his arrival as a bonafide superstar after getting his first All-Star nod. While Brown didn't double his total fantasy points over the year from his 2020 marks (quite impossible) he actually doubled his fantasy value going from a 60th-overall finish two years ago to a top-30 finish in 2021 to go with a top-15 finish among guard-eligible players.
All of this is now getting valued by fantasy GMs as the 40th-best player in draft boards ahead of next season, which seems a little bit cheap. The distance between that ADP of 40 and last year's near top-30 finish isn't wide, I know, but it still selling Brown short among his peers. Brown was one of only 13 guards (min. 50 games) to put up 1.20+ FP/min last season, and he did so on a huge 34 MPG that boosted his nightly scores even more. Brown won't contribute many assists (3.4 APG last year) but he's one of the best rebounding guards around (6 RPG) and also stole 1.2 balls per game--only Harden, Simmons, and Dejounte Murray equaled or topped those two marks last year among guards, though only Harden could match the scoring volume.
Overvalued: Jrue Holiday - Milwaukee Bucks
Another Finals-involved player, another overpricing spotted. Salute to Jrue, though, because he finally was able to escape NOLA to land in a championship contender and truly help it snatch that chip. Holiday's career arc, though, shows a player that has actually "declined" for the past three seasons and running, going from a top-10 finish in 2018 to a top-20 in 2019, top-30 in 2020, and finally just a top-50 last year. That has definitely to do with the fact that Jrue has gone from 81 to 67, 61, and 59 games played, but that's something to account for in fantasy leagues and fantasy-value assessment.
For someone with a usage rate as low as Jrue's 22%, his production was rather good at 1.15 FP/min while he was one of only four top-50 fantasy players (Chris Paul, Buddy Hield, and Ben Simmons) with USG% marks below 23 percent. The ADP is at around 35th-overall as I'm writing this, which looks a little bit high for my liking. Jrue's shooting was a freakish outlier in his career-long resume: 50/39/78 splits in 2021 compared to 45/36/78 in his career, and his efficiency was off the charts. Can he do it again? Maybe, though given his yearly fall off, odds are he finds it hard to repeat as a top-50 fantasy player ever again for the remainder of his pro days.
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