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Although the NFL and college football seasons are not close to ending, we all want to know what shiny new prospects will be coming by way of the draft for our favorite teams as soon as possible. Can't blame fans for being hopeful!
This mock draft does not bother guesstimating potential trades because of how random they are. Things are kept simple around and clean without three-team trades with picks across the decade moved around. While I do pride myself on my own analysis of most prospects, some info is aggregated from websites like DraftNetwork, PFF, along with Twitter scouts like @MVSScouting or fellow analysts like @SteveNFL who put in a ton of great work.
If you have any questions, concerns, or complaints, shoot them my way on Twitter @Rotosurgeon, I'm used to getting yelled at online so don't hold back.
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1) Jets - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
This marriage has been presumed across the football landscape since the Jets' first few games of the season. With Sam Darnold's lack of progression along with a rookie contract that only has two cheap years on it going forward, the clock is ticking on this era in New York. Most fans are done waiting for Darnold to ascend to even the ranks of a statistically average NFL QB. While Darnold possesses great leadership qualities the proper demeanor in handling rough New York media outlets, the new QB shine has worn off. The burden of blame is not completely on him but at this point, both parties are better off with a split just to start fresh and move forward.
Trevor Lawrence is the most sought-after QB in the draft due to his skill-set and accomplishments at Clemson. He won the National Championship as a true freshman and essentially cemented himself as the top prospect for 2021 from that moment on. While it is fair to say that Justin Fields is as talented, if not more in certain aspects of the position, Lawrence has a longer college track record and more accolades, making him the "sexier" first-overall pick.
Lawrence will take over from Day 1. Given his big arm and mobility, a high fantasy ceiling and floor are present. The Jets' receiving corps moving forward will likely consist of Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, which isn't a bad starting place. Of course, Lawrence could choose to stay in school and blow up the field but for now, we must assume he'll go pro.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
No, Jake Luton is not the answer at quarterback for the Jaguars. We are doing the same thing as last year with Jacksonville seeing a young Day 3 QB flash and getting hopeful that they struck gold at the most valuable position in all of sports. Luton is a career backup at best just like Gardner Minshew.
Justin Fields is the real deal and deserving of the 1B to Trevor Lawrence's 1A in 2021 QB discussions. Fields has better touch on his passes downfield and is much more mobile than Lawrence but, unlike the typical archetype of dual-threat QBs, he is just as great a passer as he is a runner. The Jaguars need a player like Fields who not only elevates the team around him but also can make plays when there is nothing there.
Fields will come in and start from day one and play with a talented receiving corps and franchise RB. If the Jaguars can shore up their protection, they will be a force on the offensive side of the ball with massive fantasy value all around.
3) Dallas Cowboys - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
Some claim that he is the most talented player in the draft and while that may be fair given his level of play since his true freshman year, Sewell is still unlikely to go first-overall or even second. The Cowboys are desperate for a fix across their offensive line given how ravaged they've been by injury at both tackle spots. They lost RT La'el Collins for the year just as the season began due to a hip injury and LT Tyron Smith to a neck injury in early October.
While Tyron Smith does not turn 30 for another month and is under contract for three more seasons, it is evident that his health presents a major risk moving forward. After dealing with a litany of ailments over the past four seasons that held him out from exactly three games in each, he is now to be coming off of a serious injury that is possibly career-threatening.
Sewell can step in at LT from day one and solidify their line for presumably Dak Prescott who displayed elite-level play prior to his first injury-shortened season.
4) New York Giants - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
This pick may be a surprise given that Ja'Marr Chase is often discussed as the WR1 of this class but rest assured to any Giants fans reading, Rashod Bateman is the real deal and would be a perfect fit in the offense. The Giants are desperate for offensive production and where better to find some than an alpha WR who can play all over the field and command a dominant target share?
Bateman possesses prototypical X-WR size at 6'2" 210 lbs, has speed, and can produce in all sectors of the field. He is even used on end-around plays behind the line-of-scrimmage. The Giants's current receiving corps is due for some overturn this coming offseason as Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are set to hit the market. Golden Tate is a dead man walking after his recent benching and is likely to be cut with one year left on his deal. While Tate was productive in 2019, he's been an afterthought throughout 2020.
Daniel Jones flashed as a rookie and has regressed back to college-level Daniel Jones this season. He deserves another year of evaluation to see if an improved environment with a true WR1 can help elevate his play to above-satisfactory levels.
5) Washington Football Team - QB Trey Lance, NDSU
The Dwayne Haskins "era" came to an abrupt halt early in 2020 given his mediocre play along with an allegedly poor work ethic. I, as an outsider, am not in a position to make any judgment decisions based on locker room/practice field issue that may delve deeper into a rabbit hole, as a person who watches football, it is fair to say that Haskins is not good enough to hold around if he's a headache.
A lot of his production in college that made him a first-round pick came by design in an Ohio State offense that relied more on the talent around Haskins than Haskins himself. He was more than capable of making the throws asked of him but there were few plays where you could determine that Haskins was the one elevating the offense himself. He operated rhythmically in the great system and is capable of doing so at the NFL level given his arm but for him to succeed, there will have to be a lot done around him.
Trey Lance is essentially the opposite where he IS the play. Lance is a weapon who can keep defenses honest with his massive arm and then take off with the space available on the field. If he lands in Washington, he will enter a team with a sure-fire WR1 in Terry McLaurin and versatile weapon in Antonio Gibson. The offensive line could surely use some work but there is fantasy value to be reaped all over, specifically from Lance himself.
6) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Patrick Surtain Jr, Alabama
The Chargers Defense has been fairly shoddy these past two seasons and a talented CB like Surtain Jr. could help remedy it. Desmond King was recently traded to bolster the Titans Defense. Casey Hayward only has one year left on his contract and is having the worst season of his career, thus, it is not unlikely that they move on from him in the offseason.
The Chargers' pass-rush may also be losing Melvin Ingram to free agency if they do not re-sign him but at least they have Joey Bosa locked up long-term and Uchenna Nwosu playing well. CB is the bigger need as of right now.
7) Miami Dolphins - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Chase set the SEC record for single-season receiving yards as a true sophomore and was a big reason as to why LSU maintained a historically great offense in 2019. His mix of speed, route-running and the ability to find the ball in the air are highly sought after; pairing him with Tua Tagovailoa would be reminiscent of what Tua had to work with back in Alabama.
The Dolphins fixed their defense over this past offseason, now it is time to take the offense to another level. While Chase did sit out the 2020 season, it would take either an injury or egregiously bad combine performance to drop him out of the first-half of round one. Chase has a solid frame at 6'1" to play outside and will have a chance to shine opposite from recent break-out WR DeVante Parker for the next few seasons.
Chase's fantasy value will be solid for years to come as long as he is paired with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
8) Cincinnati Bengals - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
While the Bengals may be in the market for another wide receiver, that is not the BIGGEST need for them given that Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both playing at high levels and signed long-term. C.J. Uzomah looked promising in the first two games of the season before unfortunately going down with a devastating Achilles tear. Drew Sample is more of a blocker and can take on those duties while Pitts operates as a big-bodied pseudo-WR to help Joe Burrow elevate the Bengals' offense sooner than later.
Pitts is arguably the most dynamic receiver in college football, let alone tight end. His athleticism and catch-radius is tough to match. Had he stayed fully healthy, he would be on the trajectory of a Heisman contender. Nevertheless, with eight TDs in five games and the tape he's put out, Pitts is a sure-fire first-round pick and despite the position he plays, there is a legitimate case as a top-10 pick here.
Pitts can step in as an immediate red-zone threat and safety net in the mid-field for Burrow who is on pace to destroy the rookie passing yard record (partly due to how bad the defense is). Pitts' future fantasy value will be safe with Burrow at the helm regardless.
9) Carolina Panthers - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
Parsons is another player, like Chase, who sat out the 2020 season but again, the talent and college tape is too great to see missing time as a real knock. Parsons is a special, versatile LB who can line up all over the field and attack offenses from the inside linebacker spot or outside. The Panthers are in desperate need of linebacker help after losing Luke Keuchley to retirement this past offseason along with the declining performance of Shaq Thompson.
Parsons would allow this defense to operate with several different looks and maximize the talent already there, namely, Brian Burns who has elevated to the ranks of an elite pass-rusher.
10) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh
Patrick Jones II has a great jump off the line-of-scrimmage along with steady hands to navigate blockers in space. Jones II is arguably the best edge rusher in the 2021 class and can provide an immediate impact to any team. He has roughly as many sacks and tackles-for-loss this season in 8 games as he did in 11 games last year. Jones II is a perfect fit for a Falcons Defense that is sorely lacking at the EDGE and need anyone along the defensive line to help out all-pro DT Grady Jarrett.
The Falcons have tried and failed over the past few years at this position with first-round busts like Vic Beasley Jr. and Takkarist McKinley but that should not sway them from selecting Jones II who is a very good prospect, especially with McKinley off the roster now.
11) Detroit Lions - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Jaylen Waddle had a case to be made as the WR1 of this class prior to an ankle injury that ended his season in late-October. Waddle's speed is extremely valuable and would add a new layer of dynamism for a Lions offense that needs a game-breaker who can attack from all areas of the field. While defense is still a major priority for the Lions, they have invested plenty on that side of the ball and should try and make their offense as fearsome as possible while they have Matthew Stafford, who is only 32!
Waddle's presence would allow the Lions to operate a more effective offense that has been typically focused on taking deep shots. Waddle would take the pressure off of Stafford as he can be utilized on screens and short-throws that could end up as home runs. Marvin Jones Jr. is a free agent at the end of the year and despite weapons like T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift already in-house, there remains a need for a bit more.
Waddle is a dominant player but he may present a more boom-or-bust archetype for fantasy if defenses key in on stopping his big-play ability and forcing the offense elsewhere. He will be an immediate boost to everyone around him if anything.
*fun fact: the last time Detroit selected a wide receiver in round one, they landed a guy by the name of Calvin Johnson*
12) Minnesota Vikings - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
The Vikings can't rush the passer or cover receivers. Whether a DB or DL is selected here will not fix this defense, rather, hopefully plug up one hole. The Vikings selected CB Jeff Gladney in the first round of the 2020 draft but he is still rough around the edges. He could benefit playing next to another skilled CB like Farley who is touted as the best in this class but will be coming into the league missing a year of work and also having had his 2019 season cut short due to a procedure to correct back spasms, there is a slight injury worry.
13) New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr, LSU
While much can be said for how poor the Patriots Defense is and the needs on that side of the ball, one of the biggest issues the team has faced over the past few years is the lack of talent at WR and essentially a lack of dynamics on offense since Rob Gronkowski's unfortunate decline.
N'Keal Harry's ceiling looks to be capped given his troubles creating separation outside and may be better suited as a slot receiver who can play through contact and take on low aDoT passes. Jakobi Meyers is ascending but still limited and Julian Edelman's clock is ticking. Marshall Jr. would be a perfect piece in any offense given his pedigree and production versus top talent.
Marshall's fantasy value is highly dependent on who the Patriots have under-center. If that is Cam Newton, I'm worried the offense will be too run-heavy for much, if anything. If the Patriots look elsewhere for more of a pocket-passer to operate their old offense, Marshall should be an under-valued asset (as long as the QBs arm isn't shot) given that the perception for Patriots weapons will be skewed by their recent history.
14) Denver Broncos - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Do I think Drew Lock is a good quarterback? No.
Does he deserve another season to prove that he can be? Probably not, but John Elway is likely to give his young gunslinger some leeway and blame Courtland Sutton's injury for the lack of offensive production and the injuries on defense for the lack of wins
The Broncos have an extremely odd team that is a Super Bowl contender at full-health with a competent QB under-center. There is not one QB available at this pick REALLY worth taking, which makes the next-best thing just plugging up holes elsewhere. A CB, especially one who has ascended like Jaycee Horn, worth taking a chance on to round-up the secondary so that Von Miller's return net year can elevate this defense to a point where it is capable of winning games once again in spite of their offense.
15) San Francisco 49ers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma
Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind, a big part of how he operates so effectively is the play of his offensive line. Current center Ben Garland is a free agent at the end of the season and is likely to get a larger paycheck elsewhere and Weston Richburg is a cut-candidate in the offseason given his poor play as a 49er and high cap-number.
Humphrey, who is the consensus best interior lineman in the class, can step in and protect whomever their future quarterback is while also creating running lanes. The 49ers are unlikely to retain Jimmy Garoppolo next season and will likely move on via trade rather than draft. Protecting that QB and maintaining their elite running game should be priority number one in the offseason.
16) Chicago Bears - OT Liam Eichenburg, Notre Dame
When there's a Notre Dame offensive lineman rising, who am I to question it? The proof is in the pudding with the talent the Fighting Irish have pumped over to the NFL over the past few years specifically. The Bears are in desperate need of help offensively and given the woes along with the offensive line the past few years. Bobby Massie and Charles Leno can both be cut or moved in the offseason for a relatively low dead cap hit in 2021 but given that Leno's younger and has the higher hit, Massie's probably the one to go (if either is moved).
Would have put a WR here but it is looking like Darnell Mooney has a legit case as their WR2 across from Allen Robinson. There is no valid reason for the Bears to not pay Robinson, so this offense is needy elsewhere.
17) Cleveland Browns - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
With Odell Beckham Jr out for the year with another season-ending surgery, the Browns are left with a pretty mish-mashed set of weapons at WR. Jarvis Landry is doing what he usually does as a possession receiver across the mid-field and Rashard Higgins is occasionally flashing, however, aside from that the position is pretty bleak and with Baker Mayfield's limitations, the Browns need playmakers at WR who can create on their own with the ball in their hands and also away from the play to draw attention.
Moore is exactly that. While he may have some issues with health and drops, his game is electric and worthy of a first-round selection. He can handle a heavy workload and play near the line-of-scrimmage with screens and dump-offs that he can create yardage with. He may not be much of a typical red-zone asset due to his size, but if the Browns can get creative, he should be capable of working there, as well as all along the field.
18) Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
The Colts have a top-five defense in 2020 and they are sustaining that without elite play from their edge rushers. Justin Houston is arguably their best but he is nothing more than average as of now and is getting up there in age. Rousseau adds another layer to this talented group of defenders with his upside and NFL-ready body.
He is a tad over-hyped due to his lack of fluidity but could develop well in the right system to a very good DE for years to come. Rousseau sat out the 2020 season as well due to COVID concerns but could have elevated himself to a sure-fire top-five pick if he had put out a monstrous season. Unfortunately, even despite 2019's production, there is a bit to be desired from what we have seen.
19) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
The Eagles have needs across the board, particularly at offensive line and quarterback, but assuming that a healthy Andre Dillard returns next year and Carson Wentz remains under center, making a need-based pick there does not seem apt. Owusu-Koramoah fills a need on the other side of the ball and offers versatility that could make their defense quite formidable once more.
While he lacks the size to play the part of a prototypical inside LB, Owusu-Koaramoah can play the part of a weak-side LB who monitors TEs/slot receivers and blitzes off of the edge. There may be growing pains early on, and calling him this year's Isaiah Simmons may not sound too appealing but finding hybrid defenders who can operate across the field can unlock opportunities to get creative and throw opposing offenses off.
20) Arizona Cardinals - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
A disruptor like Christian Barmore in the middle of Arizona's defensive line would open up a ton for their edge rushers and fellow DTs. The Cardinals have been sorely lacking on the interior since losing Calais Campbell years ago and would be remiss to pass on Barmore who has unfortunately had a slow start to the 2020 season possibly due to a minor knee injury suffered in September.
Losing Chandler Jones on the year really hurts this Cardinals Defense but at least their outlook for 2021 *should* improve upon his return. Barmore can eat up space along the interior of the DL and effectively stop the run and rush the passer.
21) Miami Dolphins - LB Dylan Moses, Alabama
Dylan Moses has underwhelmed in 2020 after coming off an ACL tear last season but that should not stop a team in the first round from taking a shot on this uber-athletic LB. It's hard to find a better fit than Miami who can utilize Moses from the inside LB spot or outside as a pass-rusher with how versatile they are with their LB corps. Moses is still fairly raw given but worth the shot to see his upside with the second of Miami's first-round picks.
Miami has solidified their defense over this past offseason and jumped from 32nd in DVOA all the way to 11th, however they remain dead-last versus the run which makes investing in a defender here worthwhile.
22) Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas
The Jaguars are last in adjusted sack rate according to FootballOutsiders and in desperate need of a future LT. Cam Robinson is an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and should be allowed to walk as he has been injury-riddled and inconsistent throughout his Jaguars career.
Cosmi is a bit of a project but he presents the upside of a franchise left tackle. The Jaguars will need to protect the blind-side of Justin Fields or whomever they select at QB for the years to come.
23) Las Vegas Raiders - S Jevon Holland, Oregon
Raiders fans are probably SICK of early safeties from recent drafts (Jonathan Abram, Obi Melifonwu, Karl Joseph) but Jevon Holland is versatile and can operate from the deep safety or nickel spot and offer different looks than their current personnel. He is very capable versus the run and pass and has good size at 6'1" to match up with all types of offensive players.
The Raiders' offense looks revamped and while they could benefit from adding an interior offensive lineman given the age of their corps, defense remains the much bigger need.
24) Tennessee Titans - WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
Corey Davis is a free agent in the offseason and even if the Titans decide to franchise tag him, you can never have too many weapons at WR. DeVonta Smith is enjoying a breakout senior season in Alabama with Heisman hopeful Mac Jones and now, with Jaylen Waddle out of commission, Smith is the lone alpha WR soaking up a large chunk of targets. His yards-per-reception on the season is lower than years past but that is mostly due to his utilization all over the field rather than primarily as a deep target.
Smith is not the fastest receiver in the world but he is SMOOTH and capable of making defenders miss in space along with losing them on his routes. He is a perfect complement to a receiver like A.J. Brown who plays like a bruising running back on the outside.
The offense is unfortunately not built to support a massive target share to multiple receivers due to their proclivity to run Derrick Henry down defenses' throats but as long as their weapons (and Tannehill) are healthy, even a lower dosage of targets can sustain fantasy-success given the high-efficiency of the offense.
25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Alex Leatherwood
The Buccaneers offensive line is incredible but it is clear that LT Donovon Smith is the weak link. The main priority for this team, assuming that Tom Brady is around for 2021, is keeping him upright. If Smith can't get that done, someone else should.
Alex Leatherwood has long been discussed as a first-round pick and despite playing a pseudo-LT for lefty QB Tua Tagovailoa for a few years, he has shown the ability to protect in a more traditional sense for Mac Jones. Leatherwood is sturdy and strong but occasionally becomes too aggressive and loses his man. The traits for success are there with some NFL coaching and improved fundamentals. Leatherwood unfortunately does not make Tom Brady's arm any stronger but could improve the run-game for years to come.
26) New York Jets - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State
The Jets have not had a great pass-rush since the days of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson yet even then their edge rushers were fairly average. Jayson Oweh is a threat on the outside as one of the most athletic defenders in college. He is fluid and could make help make up the difference for a pass defense that ranks 31st in the NFL and hasn't been better than 20th in the league since 2015.
Oweh obviously will not improve their shoddy secondary but playing outside with Quinnen Williams inside can make for a formidable pass-rush that forces the ball out of a quarterback's hands faster than they'd typically like.
27) Baltimore Ravens - OG Trey Smith, Tennessee
The Ravens sorely miss perennial all-pro Marshall Yanda and need to repair the interior of their OL which is FINE but not great. For their offense to operate at the level they want it to, they need a great OL that mauls defenders in space and allows for Lamar Jackson and the run game to dominate.
Trey Smith is a behemoth of a man and has taken a step forward in creating space this season with talented RB Eric Gray behind him. If Smith were to be the pick, the Ravens offense as a whole will benefit from the added protection and running lanes. It would make Lamar Jackson a nice pick in the middle of the draft as well after this down year. Don't even get me started on what it would do for J.K. Dobbins assuming that both Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram are elsewhere.
28) Buffalo Bills - S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh
A versatile safety like Ford is perfect for a Bills Defense that has seen a dip in both phases of defense. The Bills rank in the bottom-10 in DVOA against the pass and rush. Ford can line up as a deep safety or in the box and is effective no matter where he plays.
Micah Hyde is having a down year and is getting close to 30. While he could still be capable moving forward, the Bills need some youth at the position, especially with how many teams across the league are transitioning to three-safety looks. The Bills have the most trouble with slot receivers and it would be unwise to select a CB solely for that reason. A hybrid player fits the bill best.
29) Green Bay Packers - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
The Packers Defense has been bleeding points all season. They need to figure something out opposite shut-down CB Jaire Alexander quick because opposing offense mark every other defender in coverage and attack them.
Although the Packers need linebackers more than anything, there are not any available here that would be worth the selection. Stokes has been a workhorse in man coverage and is allowing the lowest yards per cover snap in the SEC among outside CBs according to PFF. Coming into last week's game versus Florida, he only allowed four catches for 50 yards and one TD on 16 targets. He had a pick-six versus Kyle Trask and is looking to improve his draft stock even more down the line.
30) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Carlos Basham Jr, Wake Forest
Boogie Basham is very much-so built to help a team win-now and that is perfect for a Chiefs team that is coming off of a Super Bowl win and in the hunt for another. Basham is a polished defender who has the size and speed to harass offenses consistently. While he may lack upside due to his age, there is little doubt that the impact he makes from Day 1 won't be as valuable.
The Chiefs are desperate for production from the edge to make Chris Jones' life easier on the inside, especially given that high-priced DE Frank Clark has seemingly disappeared this season. Maybe Basham playing opposite Clark could be the spark needed to revamp a pass-rush that is sorely lacking. Teams can't rely on coverage forever.
31) New Orleans Saints - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia
Despite getting bullied versus the Florida Gators' this past week, Campbell is still a very talented CB with great size to play the outside position. He can line up opposite Marshon Lattimore (who has struggled a bit) and ease the load for the Saints CB1. Janoris Jenkins, despite playing well, is getting up there in age and could become a cap-casualty this offseason given how ridiculous the Saints payroll is.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers - QB Mac Jones, Alabama
Jones has a massive arm and is having a breakout season down in Tuscaloosa. Although the hype for Jones was low coming into 2020 given Alabama's commitment from star prospect Bryce Young, he has displayed everything they could desire from a starter. The lack of mobility could be an issue given how valuable scrambling has become in the league but if there's any team that knows how to circumvent that issue, it's the Steelers. They have the necessary weapons at WR and a great offensive game-plan game-in and game-out to create spacing on the field and keep defenses honest.
Ben Roethlisberger is not getting any younger and to be honest has not played much better than a typical game-manager this year. His clock is ticking and his repaired arm is not getting any stronger. Bringing in Jones to sit for a year and learn would be best for both parties.
Jones' presence would be a relief for dynasty owners of the Steelers' WR corps who have serious questions on who will be throwing them the ball very soon.
Where is Zach Wilson??
Well...I'm not exactly his biggest fan. It was @SteveNFL who first made the comp to Baker Mayfield and I cannot stop seeing it every time he throws or runs. He has unlimited space in the pocket and does not really have great arm strength. It is hard to make a true evaluation on Wilson with what is currently around him the same way it is difficult for a QB who has nothing.
I don't rule out that Wilson could put on a show in the latter portion of the season, solidifying his place as a great QB prospect, but as of now, I just have not seen it. He's a fine Day 2 pick and even late first-round given QB value but top-10 discussions surrounding him seem a bit unwarranted.
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