Tua Tagovailoa: 2022 Breakout Candidate For Fantasy Football

Fantasy football draft season is here, and it’s time to identify and evaluate the top breakout candidates to get an edge on your fellow league-mates. Breakout quarterbacks are always fun to discuss, and Miami Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could be this year’s late-round QB flyer that exceeds expectations.

In traditional single-QB leagues, he’s not given much thought, but at worst, he can be your bench stash with lots of upside. He'll obviously be drafted in two-QB and Superflex leagues, but he could be a quiet second QB1 on your roster.

Ultimately, he’s a polarizing quarterback with a wide range of outcomes, perfect for fantasy football intrigue.

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Tua Tagovailoa 2021 Season Review

In 12 games last season, Tagovailoa charted 2,653 yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions with a 67.8-percent completion percentage. These numbers equated to 14.7 fantasy points per game, and a low-end QB2 finish. He was far from a league-winner, but he did produce four QB1 weeks – including one No. 1 overall week. He finished as a top-18 quarterback in eight of his 12 starts.

When we put the Dolphins’ offense in context, this wasn’t a bad year – at least as bad as most people think. Will Fuller was supposed to be a major upgrade for Tua, but he ultimately played in just two games – catching four passes. DeVante Parker also dealt with injuries, missing seven total games in 2021. Additionally, Miami ranked 30th in rushing yards behind a shaky offensive line, so defenses didn't have to respect the run. The bright spot of the lifeless Miami offense was rookie wideout, Jaylen Waddle. Even so, Waddle was used as a low depth-of-target volume guy, rather than a deep threat Tagovailoa could really push to ball downfield to. All in all, Tua wasn’t set up for success.

To better understand Tagovailoa’s individual performance last year, let’s dive into his key stats and metrics. He ranked No. 1 in deep ball completion percentage (50.0-percent) and red zone completion percentage (64.9-percent), No. 3 in accuracy rating (8.0), No. 4 in play-action completion percentage (69.0-percent), and No. 9 in true completion percentage (72.9-percent). There are completion metrics he excelled in, but put simply – he was accurate. However, he ranked outside the top-20 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, true passer rating, pressured catchable pass rate, and passer rating versus man. 

Overall, he was an effective and accurate shallow passer when his protection held up, but he failed to push the ball downfield and doesn’t excel at throwing balls into tight windows. You can watch Tua play and come to this conclusion, but the numbers back it up.

 

Tua Tagovailoa 2022 Season Outlook

No quarterback received a more significant upgrade to his offense than Tagovailoa. Miami brought in Connor Williams and Terron Armstead, Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, and Alec Ingold to bolster its running game, resigned Mike Gesicki, and signed Cedrick Wilson. Oh and there’s also that Tyreek Hill guy who used to play with Patrick Mahomes. This is a completely revamped offense led by former San Francisco 49ers’ offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel. Some fantasy gamers like to weigh coaching into their fantasy decisions more than others, but it's worth noting the Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay coaching tree isn’t lacking success.

Passes thrown 20+ Yards Downfield since 2020

Tyreek Hill: 10 Rec TD, most in NFL
Tua Tagovailoa: 44.3% Comp pct, 3rd best in NFL pic.twitter.com/JfgUO4ARet

— NFL on CBS ? (@NFLonCBS) May 11, 2022

We can’t know exactly what this offense is going to look like, but we can assume it’ll have a taste of the 49ers’ run-first offense. It would be fun to see Tua air it out 40 times a game with his new weaponry, but that seems doubtful – especially since signing a fullback seemed to be a top priority. However, this doesn’t mean Tua can’t have fantasy success.

The offense will be much more efficient and have splash-play potential. We know Hill and Waddle can take any pass to the end zone at any time. Even Jimmy Garoppolo has had viable fantasy weeks and seasons in the context of the 49ers’ offense, so Tagovailoa can too. Ryan Tannehill is coming off two straight QB1 seasons in one of the most run-heavy attacks, and Tagovailoa’s pass-catchers are superior to the group Tannehill has had. Of course, there’s no Derrick Henry in Miami, but the running-back-by-committee behind an improved offensive line can produce just fine. An improved rushing attack plus an improved skill group equals longer drives, more red zone attempts, and more touchdowns.

Tagovailoa is finally set up for success and has every opportunity to grab the franchise quarterback label by the horns. This might be his last chance, so at his QB16 ADP during the month of August, he feels like a great gamble.

 

Fantasy Football Prediction for Tua Tagovailoa

Thanks to an improved skill group and new coaching staff, Tagovailoa will finish the season as a low-end QB1. He’ll likely carry a boom-or-bust label thanks to his fantasy prospects being built on efficiency in a run-first scheme, but the boom weeks will be fun and fruitful to your fantasy team. Defenses will have to pick their poison between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and both will prove to be deadly.

Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins QB 2021 a thread 2.0#FinsUp

Tua Tagovailoa had the highest clean pocket completion percentage among any NFL starting quarterback in the NFL
76.3%

Tagovailoa was the best red zone quarterback in the NFL he had completion% of 65.4% pic.twitter.com/8zgGtUu1zj

— Tua BradyVailoa ?? (@SkiMaskSzn) June 23, 2022

Again, don’t be surprised when he has underwhelming weeks and Chase Edmonds and company vulture all of the touchdowns, but volatility in fantasy football is a good thing – don’t shy away from it. Tua certainly carries plenty of injury risk, but avoiding all players with some muddy injury history isn’t a good process, and is nearly impossible in the first place.

The highly effective and efficient Tagovailoa we saw at Alabama should be back in 2022.

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