RADIO
Making projections is one of the most fun things about preseason football. You could bet that 99% of them will not be correct, but man it is part of the fantasy and the sports betting world that give us something to cling to at the beginning of the year.
As stated in my team futures article, I'm not a huge futures bettor and that certainly applies to player props, too. All it takes is one snap and your bet is completely wasted, so that's why it is really important to have a bankroll management system in place when placing bets on futures.
I did my best to scour the board and find what looks to be decent value. As we get closer to the season, these can change daily based on injuries, preseason performance, and especially sharp money coming in. All I can say is to shop around at different sportsbooks and make sure you're getting the best price. Here are my favorite four NFL player prop future bets that I think will hit in the 2022 season.
Davis Mills Passing Touchdowns
Line: 21.5 touchdowns
The Texans' third-round pick in 2021 got thrown into a horrendous situation as a rookie and still was able to open some eyes. With no hint of a running game and a depleted offensive line, Mills was able to post 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and over 2,600 yards in 13 games (11 starts).
However, things are ever so slightly more positive for the Stanford product in ‘22. An improved offensive line should keep him on his feet longer with more time to target his top receiver (Brandin Cooks). Make no mistake though, this team is still very bad which will put them in a negative game script almost weekly. For these reasons, I project a slight uptick in touchdown numbers from Mills in 2022, hitting the over 21.5
Pick: Over 21.5
Nick Chubb to lead NFL in rushing yards
Odds: +1000
Nick Chubb has finished second in rushing yards in each of the last three seasons and heads into 2022 as one of the “safest” players in the NFL. Of course, this could all change with one snap, and the Browns’ quarterback situation is a total mess but for now, it’s hard not to look at Chubb as a top 5 running back. Despite missing seven games total in the last two years, he’s still averaged 5 or more yards per rush in each of his four NFL seasons.
Cleveland does boast arguably the best offensive line in the league so as Chubb heads into his age 27 season, he should have plenty of gas left in the tank. Also, it’s fair to consider that regardless of who is the quarterback for the Browns, and even with Kareem Hunt still around (trade talks be damned), Chubb is going to be fed like a workhorse. But what sets him apart is his ability to generate yards after contact, averaging 3.2 yards after contact, which was second best in the NFL for running backs with over 200 carries. With a fully healthy season and behind a stout offensive line, this is going to be the year Chubb finally leads the league in rushing yards.
Pick: Nick Chubb to lead the NFL in rushing yards
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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards
Line: 3,950.5 (Fanduel) / 4,050.5 (DraftKings)
Going into his first season without target hog Davante Adams since 2014, there are a lot of questions about the type of season that the 38-year-old will have. The Packers tried to boost the depth of their receiving corps by adding rookies Christian Watson (who just came off the PUP list in his recovery from knee surgery) and Romeo Doubs (training camp darling) to compliment veterans Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, and tight end Robert Tonyan. There's certainly a large hole left here without Adams and we don't even have a season's worth of evidence of how Rodgers performs without the receiver - just 13 games. His numbers are slightly down without the star wideout, but nothing too glaring that we should be scared to look his way.
The thing here is, Rodgers is a gunslinger. He's a gunslinger who stays healthy (mostly) and doesn't throw a lot of interceptions. He's a gunslinger who has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 10 of the last 14 seasons, and in one of those four seasons, he only played seven games (2017). While there's no doubt the Packers legend preferred to throw to Adams, other Packers receivers had at least 300 yards in a season 18 times since 2018, so there's no question he's very capable of spreading the ball around. Personally, I look for Rodgers to come out and prove that he doesn't need Adams to be successful. The guys to benefit the most from this will be Lazard and Tonyan, but let's not kid ourselves and think that Rodgers will struggle this season.
Pick: Over 3950.5 yards
JuJu Smith-Schuster Touchdowns
Line: 6.5 touchdowns
What a weird ride it has been for JuJu. After missing most of 2021 due to shoulder surgery, the 25-year-old leaves behind Pittsburgh for greener pastures in Kansas City. We have the recent history of the JuJu that has underperformed, but we forget his impressive first two seasons in the NFL when Antonio Brown was the WR1 in Pittsburgh.
Smith-Schuster posted 58 receptions in his rookie year that preceded a career-best 111 catches for over 1400 yards and seven scores in 2018. Then things went haywire with Brown and the Steelers and all of a sudden, JuJu was the WR1 in Pittsburgh leaving him to be targeted as such by opposing defenses. Well, the good news for the USC product is that there’s already a top dog in KC with Travis Kelce. We know that defenses are going to key in on him regularly, leaving open chances for others. Add in a history of red-zone success for the 25-yer-old, who's posted 60 receptions and 15 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line in his career. All of these factors have me watering at the mouth, a little, for what could be a “comeback” year of sorts for JuJu Smith-Schuster. It's important to note that he has missed the last few days of practice with a knee injury, but it seems to be more precautionary than anything.
Pick: Over 6.5 Touchdowns (+100, Draftkings)
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