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Today I'm here to discuss some quarterback fantasy football sleepers and value picks. Identifying undervalued players in the late rounds of fantasy football drafts is one of the best ways to give you a better shot of winning your fantasy leagues year in and year out.
This is especially true with the quarterback position, as we have seen guys like Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Jalen Hurts in 2021 be on many fantasy championship teams.
For those who like to wait on a quarterback, I will be going over three players that I believe can well outperform their current draft price.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
After throwing for 4,804 yards during the 2021 season, Carr will be reunited with his college teammate Davante Adams, who will make his supporting cast one of the best in the NFL.
Despite having Darren Waller for just 11 games and losing his No. 1 deep-threat after seven games, Carr was able to finish fifth in passing yards, seventh in yards per attempt, and 13th in passing touchdowns while leading the Raiders to a playoff appearance.
His 626 pass attempts were good for fifth-most, which we can likely expect to remain similar this year as the Raiders could be in some pass-heavy game scripts going against each of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson twice this season.
Despite setting a career-high in passing yardage by over 700 yards, Carr found himself as the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Much of this had to do with his 3.7% touchdown rate, which was 23rd among quarterbacks.
This was behind Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield, and Teddy Bridgewater. Considering his TD rate for his career is 4.3% and was 5.2% in 2020, it is safe to say that Carr will see some positive regression in this category, especially considering he has three weapons at his disposal that are all threats in the red zone.
When you consider the leap the Raiders' offense can take with arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL added to their team, it is hard to envision Carr throwing just 23 touchdowns once again. He finished with the 10th-most red zone attempts (86) as the Raiders averaged the 11th-most red zone drives per game.
However, per TeamRankings, the Las Vegas offense had a 49.2% touchdown rate in the red zone, which was the fourth-worst in the NFL. Only the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and New York Giants had a worse scoring percentage.
Enter new head coach Josh McDaniels, who led the New England Patriots to the seventh-highest red zone scoring percentage and we should see a significant improvement going into the 2022 season for Carr and company. Adams has 27 touchdowns in the red zone since 2020, while Renfrow finished sixth in touchdowns from inside the 20-yard line during the 2021 season.
The 31-year-old is going to have the green light to air it out this season (fifth-most deep-ball attempts in 2021), so fantasy managers can feel more than confident having him as their starting quarterback.
On average, he is going behind guys like Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers, who he can easily outscore in terms of fantasy points when you consider the new situation the two of those guys are in. Carr is a great value for those who like to wait on drafting a quarterback.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones is heading into a prove-it year as he enters his fourth season in the NFL, now under the direction of Brian Daboll. You know, the guy that helped Josh Allen become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but there is reason to believe that Daboll can take Jones to another level.
The former sixth-overall pick in the NFL Draft has been under the direction of lackluster coaching ever since he arrived in New York, so we will likely be able to truly see the kind of ability the 25-year-old has under the new coaching staff.
Despite a terrible offensive scheme, one of the league’s worst offensive lines, and a depleted group of skill position players, we have seen Jones produce some eye-popping performances.
Sometimes in a good way, but sometimes in a bad way. Before Joe Judge came in as head coach, Jones was the QB15 with 17.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie, where he threw for 24 touchdowns in just 13 games.
Enter Judge as head coach, and Jones throws for just 21 touchdowns over a 25-game span from 2020-2021, finishing as the QB17 in PPG in 2021 and the QB29 in 2020.
Even with such a poor coaching staff and poor offensive line, Jones was the QB6 in fantasy points through the first four weeks of the 2021 season, with a 400-yard passing performance under his belt. Yes, this is a small sample size, but the point is that Jones has shown flashes of his ability, which is exciting when you consider his much-improved situation going into Year 4.
The 6-foot-5, 221-pound Jones should be able to take steps as a passer with Daboll and Mike Kafka, who has the quarterback coach of Mahomes, now leading him. With Andrew Thomas ascending as a very good player and Evan Neal being added to the mix, the Giants' improved offensive line should help Jones be more comfortable in the pocket.
Not to mention, the skill position group of Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Wan’Dale Robinson is the most talented Jones has been surrounded by during his time in New York.
However, the thing that sticks out the most about Jones is his dual-threat ability, which we all know is very valuable in fantasy football land. In 2021, he finished with 27.1 rushing yards per game. Among quarterbacks that started over 10 games, that ranked as the sixth-most. Only Allen, Jackson, Hurts, Justin Fields, and Kyler Murray averaged more.
If Daboll would like to deploy Jones as a rusher in a similar fashion to Allen, we could see him be pretty active with his legs given that he has proved he can be effective with the ball in his hands. Allen finished with the most red zone carries (32), while having the third-most rushing attempts (122), rushing yards (763), and rushing touchdowns (six) among quarterbacks.
Now, I’m not expecting Jones to see this type of volume as a rusher, but we have seen he can handle a significant workload on the ground, as he finished 10th in carries among quarterbacks in just 11 games this season.
This kind of upside is hard to find at the end of drafts, as he is being drafted as a low-end QB2 option, and likely has the most upside out of anyone being drafted around him, which includes players like Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff. When you consider Jones is in a position to succeed as a passer and is one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, that is enough to identify him as a potential fantasy sleeper and great late-round dart throw.
Over the past 3 seasons, Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones each have exactly 6 games with 25 or more fantasy points
Stafford (41) has played in more games during this time period than Jones (38)
Mobility continues to be criminally underrated in fantasy football
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) July 28, 2022
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Winston is recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered in Week 8 of last season, but all signs point toward him being ready to go for the 2022 season opener.
The former first-overall pick in the NFL draft will be armed with all that he needs to find success, which includes former All-Pro Michael Thomas, RB Alvin Kamara, rookie Chris Olave, and former Brown Jarvis Landry.
In his first season as the starter with the Saints, Winston was able to average 17.2 fantasy points per game (14th) despite averaging just 23 pass attempts per game, with a far worse wide receiver core than he has now.
It is hard to believe the Saints will throw the ball at such a low rate once again, as they finished 30th in team pass plays per game during the 2021 season. With a pass-catching group led by Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway, it shouldn't be a surprise that they ranked fourth in run plays. In 2022, we should see a passing attack that finds some more balance given how deep their arsenal of weaponry is at the skill positions.
Still, Winston finished with a 14:3 TD: INT ratio in that depleted offense, which would be a full season pace of 34:7.
Now, that would obviously be hard to keep up over a 17-game season, but the fact that he is surrounded by a group of weapons reminiscent of his days in Tampa Bay is an encouraging sign that he can throw touchdowns at a high rate.
In his last full season as a starter in 2019, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, Winston threw for 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns, and a notorious 30 interceptions. It took him 626 attempts to do this, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves and expect this type of production in 2022.
Despite his astronomical volume, he was actually still very efficient. He ranked fifth in yards per attempt with 8.2 but was down to 7.3 last season. However, 7.3 yards per attempt was good for the 14th most last season. To put it in perspective, Mahomes and Tom Brady averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, and Justin Herbert averaged 7.5.
There is proof that Winston has the ability to produce as a QB1 in fantasy when he is a starting quarterback (QB8 in 2019 and QB11 in 2018) yet he is being drafted as a lower-end QB2. The 28-year-old is a great target in two-QB/SuperFlex leagues, as he may have the best chance at posting low-end QB1 numbers among those drafted around him.
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