RADIO
The one thing fantasy football players can't help but do after Week 1 is overreact. We all do it.
Except you. You don't overreact; you take advantage of those that do. The next few days leading up to Week 2 represent the best time all season to capitalize on buy opportunities for players who were a disappointment and sell opportunities for players who overachieved.
Let's identify the top targets on both sides so that you can make savvy moves to improve your team going forward.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Breece Hall, New York Jets
By most accounts, Breece Hall's NFL debut was underwhelming, especially for fantasy managers that spent a third or fourth-round draft pick on him. Having Hall as a fantasy RB2 right now can be somewhat uncomfortable given that he appears to be the RB2 on his team.
Let's start with the bad. Michael Carter got the start and saw three more total opportunities than Hall. He had 100 total yards on 50 snaps compared to Hall's 61 yards on 38 snaps. Carter took the field for all three of the team's goal-line opportunities. Quarterback Joe Flacco passed to the running backs often in Week 1, but Zach Wilson may be back as early as Week 4 and we saw that he was much less willing to check down in 2021.
So, what is there to be optimistic about?
Because Carter proved to be a talented receiver last season, there was a concern heading into 2022 that Hall could end up as the first-and-second-down back but cede the passing-down work to Carter. This concern doesn't seem to be valid. Breece Hall led the Jets' offense with 10 targets in Week 1 and ran 27 routes. Carter did see nine targets of his own on 28 routes, but clearly, the Jets are more than happy to involve Hall in the passing game.
Breece Hall debut:
6 carries for 23 yards
6-of-10 targets for 38 yards
1 fumble
10.1 PPR pointsDisappointing result, but you’ve got to be excited about a team-high 17% target share. I still expect him to overtake Michael Carter as the RB1 by midseason.pic.twitter.com/FLSZu6pzHX
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 12, 2022
Hall seeing just six rushing attempts was obviously not ideal, but Carter only saw 10. Flacco had 59 pass attempts in a game in which they trailed the Baltimore Ravens for its duration. Projecting the Jets to trail in most games is reasonable, but projecting Flacco or Wilson for 50-plus passes per game is not. Both backs should see more work on the ground in the coming weeks.
Historically, we have seen rookie running backs increase their snap share as the season goes on. Such was the case for Michael Carter in 2021, who played behind Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman in his professional debut and became progressively more involved throughout the year. Hall figures to do the same as he learns the offense and grows accustomed to playing at the NFL level.
He may not be what fantasy players hoped he would be in his rookie season, but that's what makes Hall a great buy-low candidate. Fantasy managers that drafted Hall to be an every-week starter for their team are likely concerned.
If you can sneak him onto your roster by trading a flex option or depth piece that saw a lot of opportunities in Week 1, he should be well worth the investment. We know Hall is an elite prospect and a second-half-of-season breakout would not be the least bit shocking.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Using an early-round fantasy draft selection on a tight end is always a bold strategy. You pass up on quality players at positions that occupy more roster spots in hopes of landing a difference-maker at a one-off position.
Needless to say, those that drafted Kyle Pitts in the third round are probably scared that this strategy isn't going to pay off. Pitts hauled in just two of seven targets for 19 yards in Atlanta's Week 1 collapse against the New Orleans Saints.
The encouraging number that stands out is seven targets, which was tied for most on the team with rookie receiver Drake London. Why, then, was London able to produce while Pitts was shut down? The answer is the Saints' defense, and specifically, Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
The Saints gave up the eighth-fewest PPR fantasy points to the tight end position last season. In his two games against New Orleans, Pitts scored 9.2 and 2.8 fantasy points, the latter of which came after four straight games of 60-plus receiving yards.
His struggles against the team continued in Week 1 where the aforementioned Lattimore covered him for much of the game. Even when Lattimore was not matched up with Pitts, though, he made sure the Saints kept their focus on him.
Even when the Saints were in zone Marshon Lattimore refused to take his eyes off Kyle Pitts. Big part of winning this game was shutting him down. Just 2 catches for 19 yards on 7 targets. pic.twitter.com/huxcZgaDFL
— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) September 12, 2022
Pitts was not nearly as dominant as Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce last year but still finished as a top-five fantasy tight end. Don't let one down game against a good defense convince you that he won't take a second-year leap and become the force we all know he can be. If the Pitts manager in your league is panicking, go get him while you still can.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
After Cam Akers failed to record a single fantasy point in Week 1's Thursday night matchup, it was fair to question if running backs would unfortunately continue to lose their battle against Achilles tears.
James Robinson, however, had a great showing in his return from the same injury. He averaged six yards per carry on 11 attempts and found the end zone twice.
Robinson has never been a very explosive runner, to begin with, so perhaps the Achilles rupture had less of an effect on his running style as opposed to other backs. We will need a larger sample size to be sure that Robinson is the same player he was prior to the injury, but either way, fantasy managers should look to sell high following this big performance.
Former first-round pick Travis Etienne saw 51% of snaps compared to 49% for Robinson, but even these numbers don't tell the whole story. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence overthrew Etienne in the endzone early in the first quarter for what would have been his first NFL touchdown. In the second quarter, Etienne dropped a walk-in touchdown pass from Lawrence and fumbled a red zone reception on the Jaguars' next drive.
After these mistakes, Robinson out-snapped Etienne 21-12 in the second half, where he recorded both of his touchdowns. Still, Etienne was the primary third-down back and saw the field for the two-minute drill at the end of the game. He was even more efficient than Robinson on his touches, averaging over 10.8 yards on four carries and two receptions.
Travis Etienne Week 1 vs. Commanders
Rushing: 4/47/0
Receiving: 2/18/0 -- 4 targets
Scoring: 8.80 PPRETN looked explosive on his runs and had two missed scoring opportunities down near the end zone. James Robinson will be a thorn, but he could've had 20+ PPR yesterday.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) September 12, 2022
There is no doubt that Robinson and Etienne will be utilized in a timeshare throughout the season. Etienne, however, was used as the preferred receiving option out of the backfield and saw multiple looks inside the 20-yard line. We would be looking at both of these players in a much different light if Etienne had come through on at least one of the two scoring opportunities he had in the first half.
Robinson is a good player, but his fantasy success over the past two seasons has come from seeing the vast majority of running back touches in Jacksonville. This will not happen this year and fantasy managers should look to get value on Robinson from a leaguemate that thinks it will.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Trading Michael Thomas away is a tough move to make because we all know the ceiling he is capable of reaching. Thomas was a true fantasy league-winner back in 2019 but has barely seen the field since.
In his 2022 Week 1 return, he gifted fantasy managers with five receptions for 57 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. This was his first top-12 wide receiver finish since Week 16 of 2019. Admittedly, he looked great.
.@Cantguardmike living up to his handle - another TD! ?
?: #NOvsATL on FOX
?: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qfHpsgO69p pic.twitter.com/F2mH1hTtqc— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2022
Sure, there is a chance that Thomas is back to being his once dominant self. But it's more likely that these types of weeks will come irregularly. Thomas had zero catches at halftime and was actually out-targeted by Jarvis Landry. Both of Thomas' touchdowns came in the fourth quarter of this game in which New Orleans trailed from the first quarter on. Jameis Winston was forced to throw the ball 34 times as Alvin Kamara only saw nine rushing attempts.
There is nothing wrong with holding onto Thomas and starting him in Week 2, but what happens if he struggles to produce against a Tampa Bay defense that just held the Dallas Cowboys to three points? If Thomas posts, for instance, three receptions for 40 scoreless yards, his value will plummet back to what it was before the season started when he was being drafted in the same range as guys like Hunter Renfrow, Elijah Moore, and Rashod Bateman.
Thomas is a perfect sell-high candidate right now because you can combine his huge Week 1 fantasy performance with his name recognition to get one of your leaguemates to pay up. If you could trade Thomas plus an additional usable piece to get a sure-fire WR1, such as Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, or Michael Pittman Jr., now may be your only opportunity to do so.
Maybe Thomas does finish this season as a top-12 wideout, but if you're able to move him for another one, it won't matter anyway.
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