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It’s been a long three months since Lebron James and the Cavaliers clawed back from a 3-1 Finals deficit to end Cleveland’s seemingly eternal championship drought. The draft transpired, legends retired, teams shelled out insane amounts of money to acquire, and once-loyal players switched teams out of a championship desire. What else bring the anticipation of the coming season higher? The upcoming fantasy campaign adds fuel to the fire.
Fantasy GMs ooze optimism as they painstakingly construct their prized teams. Sadly, once injuries take their toll and sky-high expectations come crashing down, only one team in each league will remain victorious. Stick with me as I try to help you build that one victorious team by avoiding these three potential fantasy busts.
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Players Who May Not Return Their Draft Day Cost
Otto Porter Jr., Washington Wizards
Preseason Y! ranking: 60
Otto Porter Jr., after lackluster rookie and sophomore campaigns, looked like a sure bust. A former 3rd overall pick out of Georgetown, he had been a nonfactor for the Washington Wizards in his first two seasons with the team, averaging 2.1 and 6.0 PPG, respectively. At this point, Porter could have metaphorically rolled into a ball and played dead. It would have been easy to pocket his rookie contract money and play overseas, but to Porter’s credit, he persevered and stepped into an enlarged role with the Wizards last season.
To be clear, Porter never lacked intangibles, just polished skills. Those appeared to develop last season as he fought and clawed his way to 11.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG on the strength of an improved 3-point shot (36.7%). He proved himself to be one of the league’s top young 3-and-D role players, exciting his fan base and the fantasy owners who added him on the waiver wire.
This year, Yahoo fantasy basketball projects Porter to be the 60th best player. Much of that value must be in his low turnover totals, though, as the rest of his statistical profile leaves much to be desired. He is projected ahead of safe fantasy options like Reggie Jackson, much more useful head to head options like Andre Drummond, and much higher upside risks like Danilo Gallinari.
Don’t get me wrong, Porter may develop into a 3-and-D fantasy stud in the mold of a DeMarre Carroll, but he is not worth taking at this point in drafts. Watch on with a smug expression as one of the other owners in your league, basing his draft on the Y! alone, overvalues Porter.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Preseason Y! ranking: 63
Who doesn’t love Dirk Nowitzki? The man has been doing it forever, and is one of the last of the old guard (along with Vince Carter, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Manu Ginobili, and Paul Pierce) to remain in the league.
He is the only member of the aforementioned ‘old guard’ to meaningfully produce fantasy-wise last season, averaging a stellar 18.3 PPG and 6.5 RPG. Here’s the problem: Father Time is undefeated. Nowitzki, 38, will have to chase stretch fours on the perimeter and bang with the bigs for rebounds, and it is unclear whether his body will withstand the toll.
Nowitzki may start the season well, but as the 82-game slog progresses, do not be surprised to see his production start to slip. It definitely will not be for lack of trying, but as a result the simple facts of physical reality. Many will argue that his game of fade-away jump-shots takes a minimal physical toll, but he will still need to schlep up and down the floor for a good 30 minutes (he averaged 31.5 MPG last year) to maintain his fantasy output.
Expect 13.0 PPG and 4 RPG, from the former superstar, which, while fine fantasy numbers for a late rounder, aren't worth an early-to-mid round pick.
Serge Ibaka, Orlando Magic
Preseason Y! ranking: 27
Jettisoned from the jumbo-lineup-obsessed Oklahoma City Thunder, Serge Ibaka looks to rebound in Orlando from a subpar 2015-16 campaign.
He used to be a fixture in the paint, but the development of his 3-point shot in 2014-15 and 2015-16 has coincided with a decline in his overall statistical production. After posting a career high 15.1 PPG and 8.8 RPG (to go along with 2.7 BPG) in 2013-14, the former Thunder big regressed to 12.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 1.9 BPG last season.
Nonetheless, Yahoo seems to be projecting a big fantasy rebound in production; however, he enters a talented frontcourt as its 2nd or 3rd best option. He will have to compete with minutes and touches with newly-acquired rebound-gobbler Bismack Biyombo, the high-flying Aaron Gordon, and the supremely skilled Nikola Vucevic.
With ball-dominating Elfrid Payton at the helm of the offense and rising star Evan Fournier to feed on the wing, Ibaka is not likely to be featured on many plays, if at all. Therefore, remain wary of his extremely high ranking and instead select a safer bet like Blake Griffin or Derrick Favors (ranked 35th and 28th, respectively).
By popular demand, RotoBaller has aggregated all of our fantasy basketball NBA waiver wire pickups into a running list of NBA waiver options, so bookmark the page and check back often for updates.
