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In order to dominate your fantasy football leagues, you must capitalize on major ADP Values and sleepers being taken too late in drafts. In this article, I’ll walk through five of my favorite ADP Values at the running back position (looking at NFFC ADP over the last two weeks).
Since I’ve already covered each of the rookie running backs earlier this offseason, I’ve decided to remove them from contention on this list. If you’d like to read about any of the rookie RBs, you can check out each of my articles on those names below:
- Round 2-3 Picks: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, James Cook, and more
- Round 4 Picks: Dameon Pierce, Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, and more
- Round 5-7 Picks & UDFAs: Tyler Allgeier, Snoop Conner, and more
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AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers
RB22
The Green Bay Packers recently traded away star WR Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, in turn opening up this offense for others to succeed. Despite being seen by many as Aaron Jones’ handcuff, AJ Dillon has major standalone value, and by far the highest upside of any mid-round running back.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was recently quoted stating “we’ve got to get our best 11 on the field, and it seems those two [Jones & Dillon] are both in the best 11,” and later said, “I think 50 (catches) for both of those guys is realistic.”
Clearly, due to their major lack of depth at the receiver position, the Packers plan to use each Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon heavily. Jones will likely remain as the team’s primary receiving back, but there’s a good chance we see Dillon lead the team in carries this season.
Furthermore, while I do expect the two to see similar red zone production, Dillon’s 6’0", 247 lb frame makes him the perfect goal-line threat for this Packers offense.
While many would rule out the idea of Dillon finishing ahead of Jones without an injury, I wouldn’t rule out that possibility. Last season, over their final five games together, Jones narrowly lead Dillon in snap share (50.8% | 47.6%) but was still just the RB20 over that span, compared to Dillon’s RB17.
Due to his comparative lack of receiving work, I don’t expect Dillon to finish ahead of Jones, but I do think we could see both backs finish within the top-15. Nonetheless, at his cheap price of RB22, Dillon displays the perfect mix of standalone value and handcuff upside in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
RB28
Last season, before getting injured, former Arizona Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds saw 14 opportunities and averaged nearly 80 all-purpose yards per game. However, he only scored one touchdown during that eight-game span, limiting him to 10.4 half-PPR PPG (RB20).
Edmonds also ranked top-10 among all running backs in true yards per carry, yards per touch, yards per route run, target share, and catch rate, proving himself to be one of the most efficient backs in the entire league.
Then, this past offseason, the Miami Dolphins signed Edmonds to a two-year, $12.6 million deal, including $6.1 million guaranteed. This signing came as soon as free agency began, indicating that the team has big plans for this elusive back.
The Dolphins also brought in former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to fill their head coaching vacancy and to help open up their run game on offense.
In Miami, Chase Edmonds will compete with Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel, who each earned a one-year deal worth ~$2 million this past offseason. While the two may have a role in short-yardage situations, Edmonds will resume a similar opportunity share that he earned in Arizona.
If this opportunity share made Edmonds a mid-RB2 with one touchdown last season, we should expect similar production for him this year in Miami, making his current ADP of RB28 an outstanding value.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
RB30
Last season, through his final four regular season and two playoff games, Devin Singletary was being used as the Buffalo Bills’ workhorse running back. During that span, he averaged 19.3 half-PPR PPG while seeing over 20 opportunities per game. Over an entire season, this pace would have Singletary tied with Austin Ekeler for the RB2 overall. Despite Singletary’s outstanding finish to the season, the team still desired more.
During free agency, they were rumored to be in talks with RB J.D. McKissic before he re-signed with Washington. Then, after missing out on a veteran pass-catching specialist, the Bills drafted their own pass-catching back in James Cook as the third running back off the board. While these moves clearly indicate that the team plans to involve Cook heavily in the passing game, this may not impact Devin Singletary as much as it may seem.
During that six-game stretch at the end of last season, most of Singletary’s value came on the ground. In fact, even if you removed all of his receiving work over that span, Singletary averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG, which would still place him within the top-10 at the position.
Clearly, there is enough room for both Singletary and Cook to succeed in one of the best offenses in the league. While both are outstanding values at their current ADPs of RB30 and RB37, respectively, Singletary’s early-down and goal-line role makes him the safer and likely higher-upside bet between the two.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
RB32
For those that may not remember, Rashaad Penny went on an absolute tear over the final five games of last season. During that span, he was the RB1 overall with 21.5 half-PPR PPG, while averaging 134.2 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game.
Then, during the offseason, the Seahawks signed Penny to a one-year deal worth $5.75 million, including nearly 90% guaranteed. However, they also drafted former Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III as the second running back off the board. All this being said, Penny and Walker will likely both play in a committee backfield for the Seahawks offense this season.
However, unfortunately, Ken Walker is already dealing with an injury, as he recently had a hernia procedure done. Head coach Pete Carroll gave no real timetable for Walker’s return, possibly indicating that this could sideline him for Week 1 and/or beyond.
Either way, whether or not Walker will be ready for Week 1, this injury gives Rashaad Penny a massive leg up in entering the season as the team’s primary back. Because of their depth at the position, the Seahawks have no real incentive to rush a rookie like Walker to return to play.
During Kenneth Walker’s probable absence and slow start, Rashaad Penny could easily become a top-15 running back, making him a smash at his current ADP of RB32. As the season progresses, we will begin to see Walker earn more and more work, potentially making Penny a great early sell-high candidate.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
RB40
In 2020, the Indianapolis Colts signed veteran QB Philip Rivers to run their offense. In that one season, Rivers targeted his running backs 25% of the time, with Nyheim Hines earning himself a 14.2% target share. This was the second-highest target share on the team, behind only T.Y. Hilton (17.4%).
Despite earning less than 20% of the team’s total carries, by the end of the season, Hines had finished as the RB20 overall. Then in 2021 after Philip Rivers retired, Carson Wentz was brought in as the replacement.
Obviously, Wentz was a much younger and more mobile QB than Rivers had been the previous year, and he only targeted his RBs at a 22.5% rate. In turn, Hines’ target share dropped to 11.4%, still third-highest on the team behind Michael Pittman Jr. (25.7%) and Zach Pascal (13.8%).
While Jonathan Taylor had a major emergence from the 2020 season to 2021, Nyheim Hines’ total rushing yards only dropped by 100 during that span. Yet, he finished as the RB53 overall due to his major drop-off in receiving work.
Now, heading into 2022, the Colts traded for another veteran in former Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Ryan is coming off a season where he targeted his RBs at a 26.4% rate, even higher than what we saw from Rivers back in 2020.
This is great news for Nyheim Hines, who has never missed a game in his four-year NFL career and is an above-average pass catcher who will play a significant role in the Colts' offense this season.
While he could easily have a top-24 finish, he’s being drafted as the RB40 due to his lack of upside. However, if you start off wide receiver-heavy in your draft, take this discount on a clear-cut plug-and-play RB2 for your fantasy team.
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