RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, April 14th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/14/22
We have a 12-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern staggered to 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Pavel Francouz - DK $8.6K|| FD $8.7K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
On DraftKings, Francouz is the third most expensive goaltender projected to start. On FanDuel he is the most expensive goaltender on the slate. Considering he is a backup goalie, he has had a nice season. He is 14-3-1 with a .258 GAA, two shutouts, and a .917 SV%. He should get a win and hopefully, something like 23-25 saves with no more than two goals allowed. The goalies are priced up and priced tightly that I would rather take a goaltender that is favored at home and hope it works out in cash.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.8K || FD $8.5K), Andersen (DK $8.7K || FD $8.6K), Swayman (DK $8.5K || FD $7.7K - Better FD play), Markstrom (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Husso (DK $8.2K || FD $8.1K), Saros (DK $7.7K || FD $8.4K - GPP), Varlamov (DK $7.3K || FD $7.7K - GPP), Forsberg (DK $6.9K || FD $7.0K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.5K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
Auston Matthews has the most upside out of all the players on the slate. He averages the most fantasy points per game and he tends to carry his team's offensive load, especially when they struggle. He averages 1.46 points per game and 4.76 shots on goal per game. He is a threat to hit the five-shot on-goal bonus on DraftKings every time he steps on the ice. He recently had a 16-game point-scoring streak going, however, that ended against Buffalo on Tuesday night. I do not think you need to spend up on Matthews in cash, but if you are going to spend up in one spot, this is the spot.
Robert Thomas- DK $5.4K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Over the past 10 games, Robert Thomas has a 10-game point-scoring streak and has scored 18 points over the course of those games. He now averages 1.05 points per game and 1.54 shots on goal per game. Naturally, with him being hot, his price has gone up.... right? Wrong. He has stayed at the mid $5K range making him a cash game staple for many DFS players as of recently. He doesn't shoot on goal enough to warrant rostering in GPPs, he only has 18 goals on the season. But in a cash game, if he is priced where he is and scores a point, he will return value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $8.5K || FD $10.0K), MacKinnon (DK $8.4K || FD $9.9K), Miller (DK $7.5K || FD $8.1K - Winger on FD), Draisaitl (DK $7.3K || FD $9.8K), Stamkos (DK $7.2K || FD $7.7K - Winger on FD), Kuznetov (DK $6.3K || FD $7.5K), Horvat (DK $5.9K || FD $7.7K), Stephenson (DK $3.2K || FD $5.3K), Granlund (DK $2.9K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Timo Meier- DK $6.6K|| FD $8.8K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Timo Meier averages 1.04 points per game and 3.29 shots on goal per game. Recently he has been playing well and his price has continued to drop on DraftKings. He is still expensive on FanDuel and is still a good spend-up option there. Chicago is No. 10 in shots allowed on goal in the league. Meier and the Sharks could have a pretty good showing against them tonight.
Elias Pettersson - DK $5.8K || FD $6.8K - Center on FD
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Elias Pettersson is someone I play somewhat frequently but often does not make the write-up here. He averages just 0.82 points per game and 2.26 shots on goal per game, but he has been shooting the puck more. In each of his last six games, he has three or more shots on goal. During that same time span, he has 23 shots on goal and has hit the five shots on goal bonus on DraftKings twice. Arizona allows the most shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $8.6K || FD $9.5K), Ovechkin (DK $8.4K || FD $9.7K), Kane (DK $7.6K || FD $8.5K), Forsberg (DK $6.7K || FD $8.6K), Duchene (DK $5.7K|| FD $7.4K), Fiala (DK $4.9K || FD $7.0K), Hall (DK $4.1K || FD $5.7K), Boldy (DK $3.6K || FD $6.0K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Seth Jones - DK $6.2K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
This slate is stacked with defense options. We have Roman Josi, Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Kris Letang, and....... I choose Seth Jones? As I have said before, Seth Jones is just a great all-around option and the least expensive out of all the options listed above. He averages 0.68 points per game, 2.50 shots on goal per game, and 2.01 blocked shots per game. Some of the above options are more offensive and I just like having a jack of all trades at a midrange price for a cash game. Guys like Josi, Makar, Hedman, etc., are better for GPPs in my opinion.
Quinn Hughes - DK $4.9K || FD $5.5K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Quinn Hughes averages 0.81 points per game, 1.94 shots on goal per game, and just 0.75 blocked shots per game. He is definitely more of an offensive contributor. Arizona is bad as they allow the most shots on goal per game. Hughes is on the power play and Arizona has the worst penalty kill in the league (73.7%). Additionally, Hughes averages 25 minutes of time on the ice per game too. At this price, he is a good bargain, however, the fact he is point scoring dependent for his points, there is some downside here too.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.6K || FD $7.8K), Carlson (DK $6.8K || FD $7.0K), Letang (DK $6.3K || FD $6.6K), Burns (DK $5.7K || FD $5.6K - Prefer in a PP stack instead of one off), Toews (DK $5.4K || FD $6.2K), Nurse (DK $4.8K || FD $5.8K), Ekholm (DK $4.0K || FD $4.9K), Graves (DK $3.9K || FD $4.2K), Martinez (DK $3.4K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. We have a large, 12-game slate. Instead of digging deep and trying to find those third lines or second power plays that are good leverage points, I think my strategy will be more of focusing on teams that have implied totals that are jumbled in the middle hoping one rises to the top.
The teams with the highest implied totals are Carolina (4.5), Colorado (4.4), Vancouver (4.2), and Tampa Bay (4.1) have the highest implied totals. Depending on where projected ownership goes and how the industry talks these teams up, I am likely to fade all of these teams in a single-entry tournament.
Teams like Saint Louis (3.9 implied), Boston (3.9 implied), Calgary (3.7 implied), and Toronto (3.7 implied) are all interesting to me. I would consider the top two lines and top power-play from each of those teams.
Edmonton (3.3 implied), Nashville (3.3 implied), San Jose (3.2 implied), and Minnesota (3.1 implied) are teams I will want some exposure to as well. I like the top lines for all of these teams and Minnesota 2 from this list.
My approach to building lineups will be to make three lineups that expose me to six stacks (two in each lineup). I won't be able to cover all of my bases but I will have six stacks from the player pool from Saint Louis, Boston, Calgary, Toronto, Edmonton, Nashville, San Jose, and Minnesota.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
