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Hello everyone once again! We head to Talladega, Alabama for the Geico 500 this week and the tenth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Martin Truex Jr. Under 15.5 Points. This is high-risk only because it is again, Martin Truex Jr. This move was a lot more contentious last week even. This week it has become almost a chic choice. Truex Jr. does not like tracks of the 2.5-mile or longer persuasion. With this low of a number (15.5 points), that means something is going to have to happen to the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. He does start second which helps. One is hoping that he fades early much like he has in the past. With the likelihood he finishes 20th or worse, that will be enough to drop him to single digits. Take the under.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Under 37.5 Points. The reason is the propensity to wreck may be worth our while. His ability to finish anywhere on this track because of the speed he carries is frightening. After all, he has finished second previously but again has two DNF's. The fear that he ends up in these wrecks for a variety of reasons is troubling. He will be hitting the over at a few junctures of this race and then inevitably something will happen much like it did at the Daytona 500. Ride the under.
Aric Almirola Over 36.5 Points. This is one of the more fun numbers to look at on Sunday. Aric Almirola gets faster and faster on super speedway courses and that can only help on Sunday from Talladega. The moderate point total is a risk, no question. However, Almirola begins so far down in 23rd. Any finish close to the top-10 is likely enough to net the driver more than 40 points which easily beats the prop. Again, think smarter not harder here. Several Ford's will dominate as the runs get longer. Be patient.
Chase Elliott Over 45.5 Points. The #9 driver benefits majorly due to place differential this week. His ability to net top-ten results is well documented this season and punctuated by his three over the past six races at Talladega. He can race on any track and has shown the controlled aggression (somewhat controlled) to race at Bristol. The Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver starts 28th so basically anything around the top ten hits the prop. Elliott benefits from the tranquil, warm conditions. Taking the over here is a wise move on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick Over 27.5 Points. This could prove to be one we go too far on. However, Reddick again has been fast and his 10th place start does not take us away from him. Last week, he should have won Bristol and his laps led plus finish were more than enough to save out day, bacon, and give us some extra lunch money. No one would be surprised if Reddick managed to even lead a few laps this week. Expect him to lurk around the top-ten again and that is enough. Take the over here on Sunday for the No. 8 Chevy.
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Kurt Busch (Under 23.5 points) -- The elder Busch starts 6th and may drop a bit more than expected as his Toyota seems to have more problems than not lately on super speedway tracks. Picking the under here carries lots of risk but could pay off later.
Willam Byron (Over 27.5 points) -- Expect another solid week for Byron. After all, he was Mr. Consistent last year. Even starting 8th on Sunday just gives him less margin for error but enough. The Hendricks have looked mostly very good testing wise. Furthermore, Byron finished second here last Spring. That seems to be forgotten for some reason. Take the over here.
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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