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It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday, May 9th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/9/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have two games starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, and two at 9:30 PM Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
NYR @ PIT || PIT is up 2-1
FLA @ WSH || WSH is up 2-1
COL @ NSH || COL is up 3-0
CGY @ DAL || DAL is up 2-1
These series are very interesting because outside of Colorado, the underdog in the series are all up 2-1 and playing at home for Game 4. Colorado has a great chance to close this one out and get some rest before the next round, but that will be hard to do on road ice. The other home teams have a chance to really swing the series in their favor and it will be interesting to see how many do that vs. get the series tied up at 2-2. Every home team is an underdog today except for Pittsburgh.
NHL DFS Goalies
Jake Oettinger - DK $7.6K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
What I like best about Jake Oettinger is that he is the cheapest of the starting goalies with a chance to win today. He has been unreal this series, allowing three games on 96 shots, singlehandedly putting the Stars in the position to go up 2-1 on the Flames. He really has had seven straight games of double-digit fantasy point-scoring. Chances are he will regress at some point, but generally, Oettinger is someone I have been rostering quite a bit when he is at home.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.0K || FD $8.2K - Alternate Cash Play), Shesterkin (DK $7.9K || FD $8.4K), Kuemper/Francouz (DK $8.3K || FD $8.6K), Domingue (DK $7.7K || FD $7.3K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center, you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below, you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon- DK $9.2K || FD $10.1K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
Nathan MacKinnon has the highest ceiling of the centers on this slate but probably isn't necessary for cash games. He has had four goals and one assist in this series on 20 shots on goal in the three games. With Colorado looking to close out, I am expecting a big game from MacKinnon here.
Elias Lindholm - DK $5.9K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Lindholm is my preferred cash game Center. The Flames should come out with some inspired hockey in hopes they do not go down 3-1 against the Dallas Stars. Lindholm is a point-per-game player averaging 2.85 shots on goal per game. On DraftKings, getting that type of production for under $6K is a value.
Mikael Granlund - DK $3.9K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
Despite Colorado dominating the series, Granlund has had a nice series on an individual level. He has three assists on eight shots on goal, and five blocked shots in the three games. He does not have much upside but on DraftKings, he is a good punt for under $4K if you have to go there to fit in other pieces.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $7.3K || FD $9.0K), Crosby (DK $7.1K || FD $8.8K), Kadri (DK $6.6K || FD $8.4K), Zibanejad (DK $6.2K || FD $7.6K), Malkin (DK $5.6K || FD $7.4K), Hintz (DK $5.1K || FD $6.9K), Kuznetsov (DK $5.0K || FD $6.7K), Bennett (DK $4.4K || FD $6.3K), Carter (DK $3.6K || FD $5.0K), Seguin (DK $4.2K || FD $5.1K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off, I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Alex Ovechkin- DK $7.5K || FD $9.7K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
Ovechkin has been very consistent this series, averaging four shots on goal per game and scoring four points in three games. He is expensive but not prohibitively expensive on DraftKings. If you want someone that has a great chance at taking 4-5 shots on goal, this is a good choice to take. Washington has the opportunity to make life very difficult going forward for Florida and I expect a star player to perform in a spot like this.
Chris Kreider - DK $6.3K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
This is your 50-goal scorer in the regular season in a huge game. He has scored two goals in the series so far, but his shots on goal have been declining from six shots on goal in Game 1 to one in Game 2 and three in Game 3. New York has got to find ways to get him shots, and I think they will, in a game they are going to be desperate to win.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rantanen (DK $7.1K || FD $8.1K), Guentzel (DK $7.0K || FD $8.4K), Huberdeau (DK $6.9K || FD $9.2K), Forsberg (DK $6.4K || FD $8.6K), Tkachuk (DK $5.8K || FD $8.3K), Gaudreau (DK $6.1K || FD $8.7K), Landeskog (DK $5.9K || FD $8.5K), Duchene (DK $5.2K || FD $8.0K), Vatrano (DK $4.2K || FD $4.8K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the second one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $8.0K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
Josi has had a good series from a fantasy point perspective in that he really hasn't put a dud out there. He has one goal, one assist, 13 shots on goal, and six blocked shots in the three games played so far. Facing elimination, I expect Josi to have a good game here.
Devon Toews - DK $5.2K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
Devon Toews is one of my favorite plays if I want Colorado exposure at a discount. He has two goals, two assists, 12 shots on goal, and six blocked shots in the three games played so far. That is a very nice value considering the price tag on Toews.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Makar (DK $8.2K || FD $7.6K - GPP), Fox (DK $6.1K || FD $6.8K), Ekblad (DK $6.0K || FD $6.3K), Letang (DK $5.8K || FD $6.5K), Carlson (DK $5.7K || FD $6.7K), Trouba (DK $4.9K || FD $6.0K), Tanev (DK $3.1K || FD $4.3K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Colorado has the highest implied total and is the strongest favorite on the slate. In a large GPP, it's probably necessary to fade them for example.
If I am choosing a team that is most likely to go off, I am going to look at the teams down in the series: Florida, New York, Calgary, and Nashville. You could make an argument for stacking any of these teams, and in fact, I recommend you do a main stack and value stack with two of the four teams listed if you can. These are the teams that have their backs against the wall and are going to play more inspired (or desperate?) tonight.
Calgary and Florida are the more talented teams with Florida being a little more offensive and Calgary more defensive. I do not want any forwards on New York outside of PP1, and I like the price tag on Nashville's forwards. The Nashville angle here is they are at home and Colorado's goaltending situation is questionable with Kuemper possibly out with the eye injury from Game 3. Francouz is not a bad second goalie, but he still is a second goalie here possibly starting in a close-out game.
