RADIO
As we enter June, it definitely is starting to feel like summer. This is when some of the bats start to kick in, although the new dead ball is certainly doing its best to suppress offense (great idea, Manfred!).
Power and average have been harder to find on fantasy waiver wires but it has also made it easier to find viable streamers in favorable matchups. I will break down each potential two-start streamer for the week based on recent and season-long performance as well as provide some insight on their upcoming matchups.
For those new to this recurring column, each week this fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column will identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week, ahead of the Sunday night waiver wire runs for leagues with weekly transactions. This list will be limited to players under 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues and divided into three sections based on recommendation levels: solid starters, risky streamers, and must-avoids.
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Solid Two-Start Pitcher Streamers
Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays - 51% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs STL, @MIN
He's right around the cut-off for this article but I am compelled to mention Springs because he is a high-priority add regardless of schedule. Springs was thought to be a potential candidate for saves early in the season as he impressed and once again when Andrew Kitteredge hit the IL. Instead, the team has locked him into the rotation as he continues to stretch out as a starter. Springs has gone at least five innings in three consecutive starts, allowing no more than five hits or two runs on each occasion.
His command has been impressive, leading to a 24.4% K-BB% over 38 1/3 innings this season. He's always had strikeout stuff but lowering his walk rate to nearly four points below MLB average is a great sign that he's locked in. Not as if the Rays have a history of developing lesser-known pitchers or anything. At the age of 29, this former 30th-round pick of the Rangers is breaking out and should keep it going this week. St. Louis has performed well and has the second-lowest K-rate among team offenses, so temper expectations for his first start a bit. He should stay in fantasy rotations for the long-term; however, I'm guessing he won't qualify for this list beyond Week 9.
Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians - 48% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs TEX, vs OAK
I've finally come around on Quantrill, especially after my recommendation of him last week has paid off so far. He tossed another QS against the Royals, striking out five while walking none. That brought his strikeout rate up to 15.1%, which is not good and still the lowest of his career. It's not bound to get better as he is generating a 7% SwStr% that is also below his 9.2% career mark and well below the league average 11.1%. You're just not getting Ks here, so focus on the positives which are excellent ratios.
Quantrill continues to make a living by avoiding hard contact and relying on a Guardians defense that holds the sixth-best defensive rating on the season. It's surprising that he's fared so well considering his groundball rate has dipped six percent since last year, but again, thank the dead ball. It also helps that Cleveland ranks dead last in HR Park Factor this season. With two home starts against subpar offenses, we might want to get as jazzed up as possible for Quantrill this week.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks - 32% rostered
Scheduled starts: @CIN, @PHI
Bumgarner was predictably roughed up a bit by the Dodgers last week and didn't do great against the Cubs either. He got back to business by limiting the Braves to two runs over six innings in his last outing. The strikeouts have started to come back a bit, as he's gotten 16 K in his last 19 IP. Getting the Reds is always good for a streamer but he'll catch the Phillies now without Jean Segura, who'd been enjoying a great season at the dish, and a banged-up Bryce Harper who is experiencing forearm soreness and is day-to-day, as well as a new manager. Both teams rank among the highest in team K% with Philly seventh and Cincy ninth, so despite the fact he'll be on the road twice, I'm sliding Bumgarner to the solid category this week.
Jose Quintana, Pittsburgh Pirates - 19% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs DET, @ATL
We simply must accept the fact that Quintana has been really solid all season and may continue to do so. He doesn't generate enough enthusiasm to get out of the streamer zone because of his 19.5% K% and 1-2 record. Being a part of the Pirates rotation means he'll be hard-pressed to reach double-digit wins even if he leads the league in ERA (he won't) but he continues to be a strong source of ratio help in two-start weeks, posting a 2.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. There may be regression hitting at some point, however, as he is outperforming a 4.24 SIERA by almost two full runs and his 2.15 ERA-xERA is the worst among all pitchers with at least 100 BBE.
What makes Quintana appealing this week is the schedule. Detroit is up first, so nothing further needs to be said there. The Braves have yet to put it all together despite their immense talent on offense. They've scored more lately with 41 runs in the past week, but that's because they've been beating up on the Diamondbacks. They still lead the league in team strikeout rate. Quintana should be a good, if not exciting, streamer for Week 9.
Risky Two-Start Pitcher Streamer Picks
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds - 41% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs ARI, @STL
High-risk, high-reward potential. That will characterize Greene all year long, it seems. He's either dominant or disastrous. It was the latter in his recent start versus the Red Sox when he lasted just three 2/3 innings while allowing four runs. There is a silver lining as he struck out eight while walking none. His ratios have gone back up with two consecutive bad outings but he has K'd at least six batters in all but one of his 10 starts.
Greene is the antithesis of mostly every other streamer on this list. Strikeouts are almost guaranteed to be high but your ERA could be blown up overnight. He is deserving of a little better, as his ERA is a run and half over his xERA but the risk is always real when he takes the mound. His first matchup with Arizona looks very promising; they've reverted back to their light-hitting ways, scoring just 21 runs in the past week. He's faced the Cardinals already this year, not posting one of his best outings. In fact, it was the one start where he didn't collect at least six K. Greene should absolutely be fired up on Monday but is again a dice roll later in the week so brace yourself.
Michael Wacha, Boston Red Sox - 35% rostered
Scheduled starts: @LAA, @SEA
Wacha is pitching to a career-low 16.8% K% but also a career-best 2.43 ERA. This seems to be a commonality among several pitchers this year, which might be a topic worth exploring for another time.
Wacha has made the changeup to his primary pitch and it's providing superior results (sans high K totals of course). Seattle has struggled mightily against changeups this year, posting a .529 OPS (26th). The Angels have done just fine and will pose a threat to Wacha's numbers although he faced them exactly a month ago and held the Halos scoreless over five 2/3 innings. There is a moderate risk here.
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers - 21% rostered
Scheduled starts: @CLE, @CHW
Post-Coors Gray has been pretty much the same pitcher we saw last year, which is to say not that exciting. He's coming off a very strong outing against the Rays in which he struck out 12 batters and gave up one run over seven innings. That brought his ERA below 5.00 for the first time this season, which is telling.
One tremendous start could be the spark for a string of success or, more likely, it was just one really good game. Gray has always had K potential, but here's the thing: Cleveland and Chicago (AL) are both in the bottom-five in strikeout rate, below 20% on the season. He seems to be getting better as the year goes on and isn't likely to get torched in either game but don't get carried away by his recent success and proceed cautiously.
Cole Irvin, Oakland A's - 16% rostered
Scheduled starts: @ATL, @CLE
Irvin is another pitcher who (wait for it...) won't strike out many batters but could get by on fantasy teams as a source of decent ratios. He is vastly outperforming expected stats, though. His -2.08 ERA-xERA is second-lowest behind only Quintana. Some pitchers are able to continue to outpace their xstats but I'm not sure Irvin is one based on his inability to consistently miss bats.
It's really a split decision for Irvin this week; Atlanta boasts the third-best OPS when facing left-handed pitching and Cleveland is third-worst. The park factor works in his favor when traveling to Cleveland as well. You ideally want to skip his first start and take a chance for the next one, but that wouldn't really make him a two-start streamer, would it?
Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals - 14% rostered
Scheduled starts: @TB, vs CIN
Something has seriously got to give here. Hudson holds a 2.96 ERA after 10 starts but he has an expected ERA of 4.94 and a 5.11 SIERA. He is barely striking out more batters (13%) than he is walking (11.2%). These command issues aren't new either; his career 6% K-BB% would seem to make him unrosterable in fantasy. His Statcast page looks almost as ugly as that of Patrick Corbin this year, which is saying something.
Yet he somehow keeps putting up good starts on a semi-regular basis. He pulled the same voodoo the other day, holding the Padres to one run and four hits over seven innings.
Hudson has one very redeeming quality and that's the ability to keep the ball on the ground with his sinker to induce a 57.1% GB%. He's yet another beneficiary of the way the ball seems to keep finding the infield grass this year. I can't in good faith recommend Hudson as a solid starter because he won't give you enough strikeouts to be satisfying and he's bound to get a string of bad luck at some point. The schedule isn't bad though, so he can be considered a decent alternative to Quantrill that is more widely available.
Graham Ashcraft, Cincinnati Reds - 7% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs ARI, @STL
The Reds keep turning over pitching prospects in the rotation this year and the latest to enter the fray is Ashcraft. A big right-hander with three plus pitches, his development of a sinker has changed his initial projection from that of a bullpen arm to a starter. The 98 MPH cutter is his bread-and-butter but his sinker has induced a ton of grounders and a .125 BAA in his first three major league starts. He has yet to give up hard contact in the sweet-spot zone and keeps hitters living in the negative launch angle zone.
Ashcraft isn't as highly-regarded as Hunter Greene (see above) or Nick Lodolo, who is working his way back from the injured list. He has done well to limit the damage so far and could continue to do so with the way he's working his three-pitch mix to perfect balance.
The downside that we keep seeing with groundball pitchers is the relative lack of strikeouts. Ashcraft has nine in three starts. He had good K stuff in the minors but is not pitching with the intent to generate whiffs at the Major League level. That is probably better for him given the home park factor of GABP. Interestingly, Ashcraft faces the team with the second-highest and second-lowest K% in the league this coming week. We'll see if he can pile up a few Ks against Arizona. He isn't likely to do so in St. Louis so the best hope is that he lasts six frames and maybe ekes out a win this week.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles - 2% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs CHC, @KC
Oh, the joys of rookie pitching. One day, Bradish was striking out 11 Cardinals while walking none over seven innings and looked like the next coming of Jim Palmer. Over the next three starts, he would allow four, five, and six runs while compiling just 11 2/3 innings. Apparently, the book is out on Bradish - sit back on the fastball. He's allowing a .352 average against the four-seamer, a pitch he throws 54% of the time.
The Cubs are hitting fairly well against fastballs this year, posting a top-10 OPS and HR total. The Royals... are the Royals. Bradish could get by with a decent start vs KC but the way he's going lately, he's best left for the deepest of leagues.
Konnor Pilkington, Cleveland Guardians - 1% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs TEX, vs OAK
Lots of Ks and walks in very few innings. That has been Pilkington's debut in a nutshell. He started the season in the bullpen and is still stretching out so we could see him go deeper this week. In his most recent outing, Pilkington was sharp, holding KC scoreless over five frames.
He is a heavy flyball pitcher and relies heavily on his fastball with hardly any breaking pitch usage. It's surprising he is yet to give up a home run, although a small sample size is the likeliest reason along with a power-suppressing park. On paper, he looks like a good bet this week when squaring off with two lesser offenses. I'm not in love with the profile, however. This feels like a trap that you shouldn't fall for.
Ross Stripling, Toronto Blue Jays - 1% rostered
Scheduled starts: @KC, @DET
For the time being, it appears Stripling will return to the rotation to replace Hyun Jin Ryu. He's been unable to recapture his pre-2020 success with the Dodgers and now profiles as a mediocre streamer for plus matchups only. Turns out he's got two excellent ones in Week 9.
Stripling's major issue has been giving up the gopher ball, as he allowed 23 HR in 101 IP last year. That made two straight seasons with an HR/9 over 2.00, which is far above league-average. Both the Royals and Tigers are bottom-five in home runs with no help forthcoming from the minors. Stripling could hold those teams in check but he won't be asked to go more than five innings max, restricting his usefulness for fantasy teams.
Jason Alexander, Milwaukee Brewers - 0% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs PHI, @WAS
Fighting back the impulse to make Seinfeld references, let's look at Alexander's first outing in the majors.
Congratulating @_Jay_Alexander on a very solid MLB debut!
7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 3 K
His 1st inning was rough, but a nice final 6 innings. The seven hits were pretty well scattered.
— The Brewer Nation (@BrewerNation) June 2, 2022
The vaunted Brewer rotation keeps getting banged up, with Brandon Woodruff joining Freddy Peralta on the IL. That means Alexander could be in line for more action beyond this week. Let's take one thing at a time, though. He'll face a free-swinging Philly team that is under new management and a Washington team that is, kind of nondescript to be honest.
The schedule is fine but we have to bear in mind that Alexander is a 29-year-old career minor-leaguer with one MLB start under his belt. Over a whopping 328 minor-league innings, he held a 4.55 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 7.7 K/9. That explains why he was never called up sooner.
He impressed in his first opportunity in Milwaukee but he'll have to work hard to do it again. If not, he might have to endure fans shouting "We have watched you take our beloved Brewers and reduce them to a laughing stock!"
Stay Away from these Two-Start Pitchers
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins - 43% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs NYY, vs TB
Ober's numbers as a sophomore at the MLB level are similar to his rookie season. That means an ERA just above four, a low walk rate, and a middling strikeout rate. Despite a fairly easy schedule in May, Ober has seen his ratios climb after four bouts with division foes Detroit and Kansas City. With the Yankees and Rays on deck, this is a good time to fade him. He's also pitched worse at home in '22 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts at Target Field. There's potential for Ober to develop into a trustworthy arm but not just yet.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies - 32% rostered
Scheduled starts: @SF, @SD
Honestly, a third of fantasy teams still think Marquez is viable in fantasy leagues? Only the prospect of facing two struggling offenses last week kept him out of the red zone but two divisional road starts are enough to put a full stop to the thought of streaming Marquez. He coughed up three homers against the Marlins the other day and was responsible for seven runs (six earned). He's allowed 15 ER and 24 hits over 17 innings in his last three starts. I don't really care what he does in his next outing, I'm staying far away.
Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals - 17% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs TOR, vs BAL
We've covered Keller a couple of times already in this column, but his numbers look very different than they did early in the season. He enjoyed an outstanding April with a 2.19 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. May was not so kind, as he posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 over those five starts. He's finally become what he always has been and it's not particularly good for fantasy with nary a strikeout to fall back on.
Daniel Lynch, Kansas City Royals - 5% rostered
Scheduled starts: vs TOR, vs BAL
Lynch continues to struggle at the pro level, posting a low 25.1% CSW and handing out too many free passes. He has a plus slider but his fastball lacks oomph and his change-of-pace lacks movement. Lynch has shown negligible improvements since his rough rookie campaign. A look at Baltimore late in the week's upcoming schedule is almost tempting but fantasy managers should look elsewhere.
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