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We're still weeks away from the regular-season tip-off, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies, we still need to reflect on the 2021-2022 campaign and what happened just a few weeks and months ago. Things have finally settled when it comes to the NBA offseason timeline so it's time to do some evaluation of the first (nearly) COVID-free year as we prepare for the 2023 season.
When it comes down to facing a fantasy draft, two numbers are often the most sought after by fantasy GMs: current ADP and overall rank from the prior season. No matter how experienced fantasy players are, those two numbers are thought of as the ultimate all-encompassing representations of every fantasy player's value. Knowing what he did in the league the last year and where he is getting drafted this season should be more than enough to make a reasonably good projection going forward, isn't it?
Turns out, those two numbers can be way misleading. Today, I'm here to focus on last season's stats from players labeled as Centers in order to assess whether those numbers should be seen as real and solid going forward, or just as outliers with slim chances to be there when all is said and done by the end of the 2022-23 season. I'll be focusing on the former group, which is comprised of players whose statistics from last season should be trusted when it comes to drafting them ahead of next year. Let's get to it!
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Centers with legitimate fantasy stats worth chasing in 2022-23
Jakob Poeltl, C - San Antonio Spurs
Last season saw Poeltl establish himself as a legit performer in the NBA even though he was part of a legitimately bad team in the still-to-fully-go-into-rebuild-mode Spurs. Poeltl had been good in the past (from top-40 to top-30, then top-15 in 2021) but his 2020 season was phenomenal and he finished as a top-10 true C in most fantasy leagues. The best of all? The production went up while the opportunities and volume didn't change that much.
Poeltl surely hoisted more shots last year than ever before (9.8 FGA compared to a prior-high of 6.2 in 2021) but he actually improved his percentages and even though he also shot one more free throw per game he still finished with a better TS% (61.3%) than ever before (of course adjusting for volume).
Not only did Poeltl's numbers improve on that front, but he also was able to lower his TOV% to a career-low 12.7% even though his usage rate was his highest ever at 18.3% while also posting his second-best AST% (14%) over a six-year career.
There is a chance Poeltl's stats go down because he's going to be playing basketball in a very toxic and depressing environment tanking for that number one draft pick next season. That comes with the positive of more volume on offense, but also with a higher degree of responsibility and most probably an uptick in playing time entering the 30 MPG realm.
The 1.15 FP/min might prove to be unsustainable on a larger dose of basketball, but it's not that the figure is unreasonable for Poeltl to keep up as he enters his prime in his age-27 campaign. A double-double season might be just around the corner after he finished 2022 with nearly a 13-9-3-1-1 line on just 29 MPG of playing time.
Steven Adams, C - Oklahoma City Thunder
Before discussing Adams' season, it's worth noting how Jaren Jackson Jr.'s injury will keep him on the shelves for a while, opening the door for Adams to rack up many more rebounds and get more dump-and-dunk chances near the rim than he already did last year in his first season in Memphis. JJJ had a high 7.4 BLK% and is also leaving a 25.4 USG% and an 11.2 RBD% open, so Adams will take at least some of those chances and finishing touches for him without a doubt.
The years of getting 30+ MPG are long gone and in Adams' rearview mirror these days, but that has actually helped him finish two of the last three seasons with FP/min averages of 1.09 (2020) and 1.03 (2022). Adams contributed more to winning games last year than he did in the prior two (as PER has it), and he'll remain Memphis's top big man along with JJJ when he's back and Brandon Clarke while JJJ remains out.
Adams, mind you, has fantasy appeal only for those in the look for a specialist. That is because he's no longer employed (nor personally chases) huge numbers for himself but instead plays the role his team asks him to and goes from there.
That translates to lower PPG averages (no more 10+ PPG seasons for him) but also to higher RPG (career-high 10.0 last year), APG (career-high 3.4), and SPG+BPG (1.7) while he doesn't turn the ball over that much even though working on that more "creative" role.
Mitchell Robinson, C - New York Knicks
It's hard to see Mitchell Robinson expanding his game a lot to reach another level, but the truth is that Rob is perfect at what he does best: rebounding, swatting, and dunking the rock. That's why you can legitimately trust Robinson's numbers from one season to the next one and even more now that 1) he seems to have solidified his game – and has re-inked his deal with the Knicks – and 2) he will have a real point guard playing next to him for the next time in his career.
Robinson has finished three of his four seasons with usage rates at-or-below 12.1%, including the past two years. In other words: he dunks the ball, and that's all he does. Don't ask him for more, because he won't be even trying. Not that he thinks to, as he's coming off the absolute best FG% season in the history of the NBA posting a 76.1% field goal percentage on 4.8 FGA per game. Nobody, ever, has reached those two numbers combined while appearing in more than one game (or playing more than 13 total minutes over a season, that is). No, not even Wilt.
No matter how you slice it, Robinson is a very limited player but, once more, one for fantasy GMs hunting for very particular categories to boost their rosters. Mitchell has yet to finish a year averaging fewer than 1.5 BPG, and last season he blocked 1.8 shots per game. Again, he's the only player in history with a career average of 2+ BPG and 70.0+ FG%, and he already has 230 games under his belt. Gobert is the closest comparable and is down to 2.2 and 65.3% respectively.
Those two and DeAndre Jordan are the only three players in history with four or more years of 1.5 BPG and an FG% above 65%, and Robinson has done in each and every single one of his pro campaigns. With such a focus on blocking shots and rebounding balls, it's very probable that he keeps raising his rates on those two categories going forward as there is nothing in New York pointing toward a change of role when it comes to Mitch Rob. Perennial 24+ FPPG average, top-25 center, and legit contributor year after year.
Deandre Ayton, C - Phoenix Suns
Four years in the L, four double-double seasons, four top-25 fantasy finishes at his position, and three top-85 finishes overall. I don't think I need to say anything else to convince you about trusting Ayton's numbers, do I?
Ayton was rock solid last year for Phoenix – for the nth time. Even though he ended the year with fewer games played than in 2021 and logging fewer MPG, Ayton was good to retain his top-15 center value thanks to a fantastic efficiency to the tune of 1.15 FP/min.
The big man bounced back from attempting 10 FGA in 2021 to hoisting 12 FGA last year, hit more of those at a 63.4% clip, and also posted a career-high (by a mile) 36.8% from beyond the arc – albeit on a rather forgettable 0.3 3PA per game.
Ayton was good to lower his TOV% from 2021 and his rookie year but he sustained the 18+ BLK% he's already reached in three of his four seasons as a pro. There aren't many better defensive rebounders in the league, and with Phoenix unable to trade him away until January at the very least – and under his own consent – he should retain most of the value going forward and at least for another year until he gets moved. Forget about the bad-blood storylines infused by the media, it would make zero sense for Phoenix not to exploit Ayton's talents while he's around – and the relationship can still be fixed, mind you – so he is one of the surest things entering the 2023 fantasy season.
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