RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are FINALLY HERE!!! We get to cherish the return of our beloved Premier League season for yet another year. This year will be filled with new players, new clubs and just as many upsets and superb victories as every year carries. Please welcome Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest back to the Premier League as well as Erling Haaland, the “King of Norway”. Today I will guide you through this four-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST with Tottenham, -275 the biggest favorites.
Please Be Advised: This writeup does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at bmwvolleyball94@gmail.com or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 1
[H] Bournemouth (+275) vs [A] Aston Villa (+100): Total: u2.5
Bournemouth will make their return to the top-flight with a friendly home match to start the 22’ campaign. They are also coming off a rather successful season after just losing out to Fulham for the Championship title. Meanwhile, Aston Villa finished their season on the opposite end of the spectrum with offensive woes paired with plummeting deteriorating form. Bournemouth did not make many big changes to the roster, while Aston Villa revamped a few positions and built chemistry from last season in hopes for a more improved offense this year. It will be interesting to see how successful Villa can be against Bournemouth to start off the season.
Expected Outcome: 1-0 Aston Villa
Forwards
Ollie Watkins-DK $6.4K || FD $17
None of the strikers are very appealing in this matchup, but if we had to choose one, it would be Ollie Watkins. He will have the highest upside and the highest chances of scoring a goal in this tightly contested matchup. He will also benefit from Coutinho and Bailey on either side of him against a soft Bournemouth defense. Watkins finished with 11 goals and 2 assists through 35 appearances last season and he will need to build on that if he wants to keep the starting job for Aston Villa.
Midfielders
Phillip Coutinho-DK $6.8K || FD $19
Coutinho is a ‘no-brainer’ in this matchup against Bournemouth. The midfielder made an instant impact last season when he arrived at Villa. Although he did not have many goals or assists, he opened ample space on the field with his creativity that otherwise would not have happened for the visitors. It looks like he may also have the chance to get a piece of the set-pieces early on and we need to take advantage of his ‘low’ salary while we can.
Defenders
Lucas Digne-DK $5.8K || FD $12
Digne is the fifth-highest salaried defender on the slate and for good reason. If you are not familiar with his history at Everton, he led their defense from the left flank and he provided both offensive and defensive support. He operated on set-pieces which only bolstered his value and he may be called upon once again to help take a portion of the set-pieces for Aston Villa. Bournemouth was also one of the clubs to concede the most crosses per match last season and it looks like that trend will continue this season. Digne is yet another player that we will need to take advantage of his ‘lower’ salary while we can.
[H] Leeds United (+130) vs [A] Wolverhampton (+195): Total: u2.5
Leeds is looking to make waves in the top-flight this season after they barely secured their stay last season. Wolverhampton on the other hand struggled for goals last season and they have done nothing to secure the dreadful offense. They will rely greatly on their superb defensive record for yet another season, but will it stay strong while the rest of the league has upgraded their offense? Leeds will give the Wolves a fit right off the start after they upgraded their roster with big names Brendan Aaronson, Tyler Adams and Luis Sinisterra.
Expected Outcome: 2-0 Leeds
Forwards
Patrick Bamford-DK $6.2K || FD $16
After moving from the Championship to the Premier League, Bamford saw a limited schedule due to injuries. However, in his 9 appearances, he did have 2 goals and 2 assists. Leeds did not have consistent offense last season, but they will now have maestro Aaronson to help control the middle of the pitch. This will provide much more support to Bamford who could finally see his true potential this season. The Wolves have a solid defense, but can it keep back the hungry hosts?
Midfielders
Brendan Aaronson-DK $7.2K || FD $15
Aaronson is not a flashy player, despite some of the plays and vision he has showcased during the pre-season. The midfielder made his name in the MLS playing for Philadelphia Union and has since played in Austria’s Bundesliga and now makes his way to the league of leagues playing for Leeds. He will instantly change the dynamic of Leeds’ attack and the way they play through the midfield. He should also be taking the majority of set-pieces unless things change last minute. Aaronson is a bit higher in salary than expected for his Premier League debut, but he is still worth every penny.
Defenders
Conor Coady-DK $4.6K || FD $10
Coady was a brute last season for the Wolves and nothing should change for this campaign. The defender sits in the heart of the defense for Wolverhampton and his sense and IQ for the game make him a standout defender on the slate, especially when considering FanDuel’s scoring system. Coady racks up interceptions and tackles with ease and if Leeds comes flying out of the gates, Coady will have an eventful day.
[H] Newcastle United (-155) vs [A] Nottingham Forest (+450) Total: o2.5
Despite Newcastle being favored at home, this matchup is much harder to analyze than the rest. Newcastle did not exactly have the transfer window themselves and many others expected them to have after the abundance of chatter involving the club. They only made two impactful signings, Nick Pope from Burnley and Sven Botman from Lille of Ligue One. Otherwise, their offense remains the same and it will continue to flow through Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest has completely revamped their roster, bringing in the likes of Dean Henderson, Moussa Niakhate, Neco Williams, Jesse Lingard and Taiwo Awoniyi. All of the mentioned names should immediately be thrown into the starting XI for Nottingham and this will be the final chance for Jesse Lingard to show he still has what it takes to play in the Premier League.
Expected Outcome: 2-1 Newcastle United
Forwards
Callum Wilson-DK $7.8K || FD $18
Wilson’s salary is less than ideal, but comparing his chances of scoring to Awoniyi’s chances, I will go with the former. Newcastle instantly became a better team when Wilson joined the club from Bournemouth and now they have had a good bit of time to develop chemistry. This should only bolster the chances of Wilson outperforming his 8 goals in 18 appearances last season. The only trouble for him is that he is going up against ex-Manchester United back stopper, Dean Henderson who has proven himself to be a viable starting keeper in the top flight. This is more of a GPP flyer than anything else, but if Newcastle keeps on the gas, they should be able to outlast the promoted Nottingham side.
Midfielders
Jesse Lingard-DK $4.7K || FD $15
Once considered a piece of the future for Manchester United, Lingard has fallen off the rails since his love for social media began. This ultimately saw him grow out of favor at the Theatre of Dreams and then he never got to make his return to West Ham, bringing him to newly promoted Nottingham Forest. Now Lingard not only has the chance to prove himself once again that he can last in the top flight, but he should also be the main catalyst for any and all offense for Nottingham. At his affordable salary, this makes a great play in any contest.
Defenders
Neco Williams-DK $5K || FD $10
This matchup offers a few solid options at defense with Kieran Trippier playing on the other side of the pitch. However, we will focus on the new arrival of Neco Williams from Fulham who is much more affordable than Trippier. Williams shined with Fulham in the Championship last season after leaving Liverpool. The defender now gets yet another chance to shine, but this time for Nottingham Forest. It looks like they will be running a 3-5-2 formation as well to start the season with Williams as a RWB. This gives him a lot of value since he loves to play a more attacking-style game, averaging 1.49 shots and 4.59 crosses last season. This also makes him a great option on both DraftKings and FanDuel platforms.
[H] Tottenham Hotspurs (-275) vs [A] Southampton (+725) Total: o2.5
Both Tottenham and Southampton have been busy during the Summer Transfer Window, however, both clubs made signings for different reasons. Southampton did not make many impactful signings that will vie for a spot in the starting XI right away unless they play on rolling out a squad of 18 and 19-year-olds. While Tottenham brought in two more CBs in Cristian Romero from Atalanta of Serie A and Clement Lenglet from Barcelona of La Liga. They also made an upgrade in midfield with Yves Bissouma from Brighton and Ivan Perisic from Inter Milan. The biggest acquisition of the off-season though has been Richarlison from Everton and it remains to be seen how he will be utilized in the squad. The Spurs are the heaviest favorite on the slate to start off the season and it is for good reason. Plan for a rather easy victory for the hosts.
Expected Outcome: 3-0 Tottenham
Forwards
Harry Kane-DK $11.2K || FD $21
Kane struggled at times last season, but once Dejan Kulusevski arrived from Juventus, things look a whole lot better for the striker. He finished the season with 17 goals and 9 assists in 37 appearances, which is something he could easily outproduce this season. After rumors on rumors with the star Tottenham striker leaving to replace Lewandowski at Bayern Munich, he has stayed and looks to lead the line for the Spurs once again. If you are playing cash lineups, he is a must-add.
Midfielders
Son Heung-Min-DK $11.9K || FD $22
If paying for two of the highest salaried players from the same club worries you, then you can always pivot to Kulusevski who is cheaper than Son. However, Son takes the majority if not all of the set-pieces for Tottenham and he will once again be the main catalyst to the offense. Southampton is looking to improve on last season’s performance, but they will not have what it takes to hold this winger down. Son finished the season with 23 goals and 7 assists in 35 appearances.
Defenders
Ryan Sessegnon-DK $5.5K || FD $8
Sticking with the hosts, Sessegnon already has a decent chance to get closer to his ceiling thanks to the odds of his team keeping a clean sheet. However, the main reason to play him is to pivot off Son if he is too high of a salary and because he and Son will work together on the left-flank causing a ton of chaos for Southampton. Sessegnon is an offensively-minded defender and he will look to make his way into the box as much as he can.
Goalies
Hugo Lloris-DK $5.9K || FD $14
Lloris immediately takes the cake for the highest-owned keeper on the slate for tomorrow. Thanks to his team’s overall odds of winning and his chances of keeping a clean sheet, Lloris makes for the ultimate choice at keeper. Last season he struggled at times along with teammate Harry Kane, but he still managed to have an overall successful season. He ended last year’s campaign just above 1.0 goals conceded per match.
Illan Meslier-DK $5.1K || FD $10
Unless things take a massive turn for the worst, Meslier should have a great chance at winning Leeds’ home debut against the offensively-lacking Wolves. Wolverhampton struggled for shots and goals last, ranking almost dead last for total goals. However, with the lack of shots can come a lack of ceiling for Meslier as well. Luckily, his salary is not as high, but he does come with a slight risk.
Expected Corner Takers:
Bournemouth: Christie
Aston Villa: Digne/McGinn
Leeds United: Aaronson
Wolverhampton: Moutinho
Newcastle United: Trippier
Nottingham Forest: Lingard
Tottenham Hotspurs: Son
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
