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We are less than two weeks away from the kickoff of the NFL season. Fantasy drafts will be in full swing as soon as this weekend, meaning it's time to start fine-tuning the players to target to win your league.
One position that requires a bit of strategy is the quarterback position since a majority of leagues only require one starter. Fantasy managers can gain a distinct edge in their leagues if they can focus their early round, premium picks filling out the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions while waiting to find their starting quarterback.
One player to consider as a “late round” option is third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
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It feels fair to say that Tua Tagovailoa has been a disappointment in the NFL after being the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL draft. The quarterback who went ahead of him (Joe Burrow) has looked amazing with the Bengals and led them to a Super Bowl last season. The quarterback selected a round behind him (Justin Herbert) is widely considered the most exciting young quarterback in the NFL. Meanwhile, Tua has worked his way back from a catastrophic hip injury suffered during his last season with Alabama to become what most would call a "game manager” quarterback.
In 23 career games, Tagovailoa has completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,467 yards and just 27 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. However, the Alabama product showed some encouraging growth in his second season. Tua threw nearly 100 more passes in 2021 compared to 2020 but saw his completion percentage, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt all increase despite a lack of weapons (outside of rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle). He finished his second season averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, which was 21st among quarterbacks with at least 12 starts. However, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Tua will take an even greater leap ahead of his third season.
Miami fired their entire coaching staff after last season and decided to replace them with Mike McDaniel, the former offensive coordinator/genius behind the 49ers' offense. Immediately, the team worked to upgrade the offense alongside Tua to accentuate his strengths. Miami signed Terron Armstead and Connor Williams to bolster the offensive line after an abysmal season. The team franchise tagged tight end Mike Gesicki and signed Cedrick Wilson in free agency. They also signed Chase Edmonds, who will serve as the top pass-catching back. Finally (and most importantly), Miami engineered a surprising off-season trade for elite wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs.
Hill has a reputation for being a deep threat, which doesn’t necessarily match up with the public perception of Tua (weaker arm, better accuracy). However, the way the Chiefs used Hill last year suggests he might be a better fit than we think. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Hill had an average depth of target (ADOT) of 10.7 last year, which was just 43rd amongst wide receivers in 2021 (and down two yards from 2020). Hill was still making big plays, but the coverage he was getting forced him to change the way he made them (and the way Kansas City utilized him).
In 2021, Hill had his second consecutive season with over 400 yards after the catch. Opposing defenses committed to playing Kansas City with two deep safeties to try and limit their big play potential. The result was short to intermediate crossing routes that would get Hill the ball while he was moving and allow him to use his speed to outrace the secondary. Tua doesn’t have the best deep ball, but he is very accurate and will be able to hit Hill in stride on those same routes. McDaniel also has a history of utilizing players with Hill’s skillset (see Deebo Samuel in San Fran) and could use him as a rusher as well.
Ultimately, Tua heads into his third season with an upgraded offensive line and massive receiver upgrades in Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, and Cedrick Wilson (along with Waddle and Mike Gesicki from last season). Tua is going off the board as QB16 in fantasy drafts over the last two weeks. He represents the perfect upside play for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on a late-round QB choice to maximize their skill positions early in fantasy drafts.
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