RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off”! We are here for Gameweek 6 and a quick turnaround!!! We get to continue to cherish the return of our beloved Premier League season for yet another year. This year will be filled with new players, new clubs and just as many upsets and superb victories as every year carries. Today’s slate will feature two favorites, Chelsea -185 and Tottenham -200. This slate will feature many pickem matches and it could end up being one of the lower scoring slates this season. I will guide you through this five-game slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
Please Be Advised: Due to the quick turnaround of gameweeks, there can be an increased risk of rest for players. This write-up does not cover the late game on FanDuel because of the differences in the DraftKings and FanDuel slates.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at bmwvolleyball94@gmail.com or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 6
[H] Brentford (+110) vs [A] Leeds United (+220): Total: u2.5
After starting the season strong with a massive 4-0 win over Manchester United, Brentford has taken a plummet in form. The hosts have lost to Fulham 3-2 and drawn with both Everton and Crystal Palace 1-1. It seems their offense has dried up and the midfield is not generating as many chances compared to before. Leeds are in a similar position as well with three wins out of four matches to start the season and they most recently lost to Brighton 1-0 and just drew 1-1 with Everton at the weekend. This is a race to form for this meeting and it ultimately could end up with both clubs taking a share.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Patrick Bamford-DK $4.9K || FD $16
Still hard to say if Bamford will ultimately start, but if he does, this will be the striker of choosing. Bamford continues to be rattled with his leg injury from last season and it has cost him form early on. However, in the two matches, he has started, he has 4 shots. In the first few matches of the season when Bamford played, Leeds was still trying to figure out chemistry with new roles and new arrivals. It seems that they are clicking on all cylinders now and it is a matter of time until Bamford starts to capitalize on the production.
Midfielders
Jack Harrison-DK $8.4K || FD $17
Harrison is loving his new role at Leeds, taking the majority of set-pieces and tormenting defenders from the left flank. The midfielder has been one of the most consistent players for Leeds thus far. In five appearances, he has 1 goal, 3 assists, 5 shots, 16 created chances, 34 crosses, 16 corners and 10 tackles. Those are impressive numbers and he provides a welcoming floor. With the lack of options on the slate, Harrison could end up eating a vast amount of ownership.
Defenders
Aaron Hickey-DK $4.1K || FD $7
Hickey is becoming a mainstay in this article due to the peripherals that he collects with ease. The defender has 3 shots, 1 created chance, 7 crosses, 10 tackles and 3 interceptions through 5 matches this season. The numbers don’t jump off the page, but he is producing just enough to keep himself relevant at a low cost. You can especially take advantage on FanDuel’s platform, where they value clearances – he has 6 –.
[H] Chelsea (-185) vs [A] West Ham United (+475): Total: o2.5
Chelsea is having one of the club’s worst starts in a few seasons to start the 22/23 campaign. In their last three matches, they have lost twice and been outscored 6-3. Due to the lack of consistency, the team may move to a 4-3-3 in hopes of generating more offense in the final third. However, West Ham has looked rather solid defensively, conceding 2 or more goals just once – 2-0 loss at home to Brighton –. With both clubs struggling to score goals, they could share the spoils, or will Chelsea pull off the win at Stamford Bridge?
Expected Outcome: Chelsea 2-1
Forwards
Raheem Sterling-DK $9K || FD $19
Sterling could finally be finding form with his new club after scoring for the second consecutive match in the 2-1 win over Southampton. The Manchester City transfer has struggled to produce since his arrival to Stamford Bridge. Mainly because of his playstyle and the lack of offensive pressure and press that Chelsea brings. However, they may move to a 4-3-3 for this matchup which could prove pivotal for Sterling’s production, having both Hakim Ziyech and Kei Havertz distributing crosses from either flank. In five appearances, Sterling has 3 goals, 1 assist, 11 shots, 8 created chances and 5 crosses.
Midfielders
Jared Bowen-DK $7.8K || FD $15
Bowen is the perfect player to target on the slate thanks to his dual-eligibility on DraftKings. The midfielder may be slotted into the striker position against Chelsea in a 4-2-2 formation. This would instantly boost Bowen’s value. Not only would he remain on a share of the set-pieces, but now he has the chance to produce a second floor from shot volume and he will be playing in line with teammate Michail Antonio. Chelsea has yet to show defensive dominance and until they do, there is always a chance for goals to be scored against the Blues. Through five matches, Bowen has 9 shots, 3 created chances, 14 crosses, 8 corners, 8 tackles and 4 interceptions.
Defenders
Emerson Palmieri-DK $4.1K || FD $9
This is the ultimate revenge narrative for Palmieri who just transferred from Chelsea to West Ham due to the lack of playing time. Even after his overall good season while on loan to Lyon, Emerson could not crack the Blues’ lineup. West Ham looks to be rolling out a 3-5-2 formation against Chelsea and if they do, Emerson will instantly be valued tenfold thanks to his two-way play. Through 26 matches in all competitions last season for Lyon, Emerson averaged 0.61 shots, 1.19 created chances, 2.2 crosses, 1.48 tackles and 0.8 interceptions per 90 minutes.
[H] Newcastle United (+100) vs [A] Crystal Palace (+275) Total: u2.5
After both clubs had surprising efforts against top clubs – Newcastle tied Manchester City 3-3 and Crystal Palace tied Liverpool 1-1 –, they slowed down drastically. Newcastle were drubbed 4-2 by Liverpool and Crystal Palace lost 2-1 to Manchester City and each respectively had 1-1 draws following the loss. Luckily for the hosts, they have completed the signing of Swedish phenom Alexander Isak to replace Callum Wilson’s production and he scored in his Premier League debut. If Palace cannot create from the flanks in this meeting, they will struggle to produce any sort of offense. The Magpies may have just what they need to be able to squeak out a close win.
Expected Outcome: Newcastle United 1-0
Forwards
Alexander Isak-DK $6.6K || FD $17
The ex-Real Sociedad striker made his presence known during his Premier League debut in the 4-2 loss to Liverpool at the midweek. Isak scored once as well as taking two shots and intercepting once. With new teammate Callum Wilson out for the time being, Isak will be the go to striker for the Magpies. Furthermore, it looks as if Allan Saint-Maximin is out for this meeting with Ryan Fraser replacing him – Fraser looks to pass/cross more than Saint-Maximin – . If that is the case, Isak will be seeing crosses from both Fraser and Miguel Almiron all match.
Midfielders
Ryan Fraser-DK $4.9K || FD $10
Fraser looks to be getting the nod at left-wing in this meeting with Palace on Saturday. As aforementioned, teammate Allan Saint-Maximin looks to be out and Fraser will have a chance to earn more time with a standout performance. The midfielder also has the chance to take a share of the set-pieces from teammate Kieran Trippier which only further boosts Fraser’s value. In two appearances – one start –, he has 1 shot, 2 created chances, 5 crosses and 2 clearances.
Defenders
Kieran Trippier-DK $5.9K || FD $14
We will continue to run the Magpie theme and finish with Trippier. The star wingback for Newcastle is once again thriving in the early stages of the season. Not only is Trippier providing his peripherals from the flank as he is known for, but he also has a goal through five appearances. Along with that, Trippier has 3 shots, 5 created chances, 35 crosses, 21 corners, 6 tackles, 7 interceptions and 14 clearances. Those are solid numbers, especially for his salary on the slate and the lack of supreme defensive options. Trippier has a new target to cross to with the welcome of familiar striker Isak from their days in the La Liga and it will only be a matter of time until those two start linking up.
[H] Nottingham Forest (+100) vs [A] AFC Bournemouth (+280) Total: u2.5
Albeit the offensive threat that Forest poses, the club has yet to see consistency and success. Through five matches, they have been outscored 11-2 – including a match where they lost to Manchester City 6-0 –. The visitors have not seen much of a difference in form either, being outscored 16-2 in their five matches – their biggest loss was a 9-0 defeat to Liverpool –. Luckily for the Cherries, they have responded since with a 0-0 draw against Wolverhampton at the weekend. Neither club has had the friendliest of schedules with their return to the top-flight and it will take an adjustment for each. However, Forest poses a greater offensive threat and has the home crowd to their advantage. The hosts may finally break the losing streak with a tightly-contested win.
Expected Outcome: Nottingham Forest 1-0
Forwards
Emannuel Dennis-DK $6.1K || FD $16
Dennis is coming off a career season where he bagged 10 goals and assisted 6 goals in 33 appearances with Watford last season before they were eventually relegated. Dennis is a physical striker and he will cause chaos through Bournemouth’s backline. Through two appearances off the bench, he has 4 shots, 1 cross and 1 tackle.
Midfielders
Marcus Tavernnier-DK $5.8K || FD $14
There are not many viable options for the midfielder position in this matchup, so we will stay safe and take the set-piece taker for the Cherries, Tavernier. He continues to be the face of the offense for Bournemouth and he is coming off his best performance at the midweek against Wolverhampton where he had 1 shot, 1 created chance, 5 crosses, 2 corners, 6 tackles, 1 interception and 2 clearances. He certainly has the skill set to produce in bunches, but the lack of support in the starting XI is not helping his cause. This is a reliable ‘pay-down’ option if needed.
Defenders
Neco Williams-DK $6.1K || FD $14
Williams will surely be north of 20 percent ownership on the slate and for good reason. The wingback is a focal point of Forest’s offense and his long ball is crucial to their attacking cause. Bournemouth is also dead last in the table for the most crosses against per match – 2.2 –. Williams has only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points once on DraftKings and he has managed to hit it in each match on FanDuel thanks to their defensive-friendly scoring model. In five starts for Williams, he has 11 shots, 9 created chances, 26 crosses, 8 corners, 24 tackles, 10 interceptions and 9 clearances.
[H] Wolverhampton (+115) vs [A] Southampton (+230) Total: u2.5
Albeit, adding offensive help at both the forward positions and midfield positions, Wolverhampton is still struggling to score goals and luckily their defense is bailing them out of fixtures. The Wolves have yet to score more than once in a fixture in the top flight and they have only seen o2.5 goals once through five matches. Southampton is in a similar boat as well, despite beating Chelsea 2-1 at the midweek. This will be a tightly contested match with a low goal count and a potential share of the spoils.
Expected Outcome: 1-1
Forwards
Sasa Kalajdzic-DK $5.7K || FD $16
After multiple rejected bids, Wolverhampton managed to land their prized striker in the summer transfer window. After having a great rookie year in 2020 with VfB Stuttgart of the Bundesliga where Kalajdzic scored 16 goals and assisted 5 goals, he has failed to replicate the same form. Now he makes his way to the Premier League after he assisted 3 goals, took 5 shots, created 6 chances and made 3 tackles in three starts with VfB Stuttgart this season. Kalajdzic brings more speed to Wolverhampton and possesses a slightly different play style compared to new teammate Raul Jimenez and this may be exactly what Wolverhampton needs to kickstart their season.
Midfielders
James Ward-Prowse-DK $8.2K || FD $17
We are back with another dose of Ward-Prowse. The midfielder as stated in prior articles is the face of Southampton and he ultimately controls the pace of play and attack. Ward-Prowse is also in sole control of set-pieces for the Saints and despite Wolverhampton’s successful defense, he will have every chance to at least reach his floor in this meeting at Molineux Stadium. His salary has been adjusted for the strength of the opposition’s defense and playing away, but he remains one of the better options at the position on the slate and he will still garner ownership. In five starts, Ward-Prowse has 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 shots, 13 created chances, 41 crosses, 19 corners, 9 tackles and 7 interceptions.
Defenders
Armel Bella-Kotchap-DK $3.4K || FD $11
Bella-Kotchap has been an instant favorite in the Saint’s defense since his arrival this season. After a successful first season in the Bundesliga, he was a hot target for the Saints in the summer transfer window. Bella-Kotchap brings tremendous situational awareness and strength like his new teammate Mohammed Salisu, but Bella-Kotchap also brings an offensive ability on set-pieces, unlike his counterpart. If Wolverhampton can generate any sort of offense, it will benefit Belle-Kotchap greatly on FanDuel where he has managed to score double-digit fantasy points all but once. In four starts, he has 1 assist, 6 shots, 1 created chance, 1 cross, 6 tackles, 7 interceptions and 20 clearances.
[H] Tottenham Hotspurs (-200) vs [A] Fulham (+500) Total: o2.5
Tottenham has started where they ended last year. The club has won three of its first five matches and is currently undefeated while outscoring its opponents 10-4. The Spurs also have kept a clean sheet in two of their last three matches, despite their opponents being Wolverhampton and Nottingham Forest. Fulham on the other side of the pitch may pose the hardest fixture thus far for Tottenham. Fulham has proven itself time and time again this season with a statement 2-2 draw with Liverpool and wins versus Brentford – 3-2 – and Brighton – 2-1 –. They also managed to lose late in the fixture against Arsenal, 2-1. The only downfall of the club is that the entire offense rests on the shoulders of Aleksandar Mitrovic. If Tottenham can bottle him up, they should win with ease.
Expected Outcome: Tottenham Hotspurs 3-1
Forwards
Harry Kane-DK $10.5K || FD $22
Spurs continue to rely on Kane’s production, despite adding offensive weapons like Dejan Kulusevski, Ryan Sessegnon and Ivan Perisic. In five starts, Kane has 4 goals, 19 shots, 10 created chances, 7 corners and 1 tackle. Fulham has shown that it can handle top-tier clubs, but the club has also shown that they are not impenetrable. If anyone is to score in this matchup, Kane has the best odds of doing so.
Midfielders
Dejan Kulusevski-DK $7.2K || FD $18
Kulusevski has rarely disappointed since his arrival to Tottenham Stadium and he may get a primetime chance against Fulham on Saturday. Expected lineups do not have Son for the Spurs and it may provide a larger role in the starting XI for Kulusevski. However, if he does not get the added value, the winger still sends crosses in bunches to Kane game in and game out. Through five starts, Kulusevski has 1 goal, 2 assists, 8 shots, 11 created chances, 9 crosses, 3 corners and 6 tackles.
Defenders
Ryan Sessegnon-DK $4.9K || FD $10
Sessegnon has a unique opportunity to showcase his offensive abilities in this matchup. If Son does not start for the Spurs, Richarlison will most likely replace him in the starting XI. This could cause a formation shift to make it friendlier for Richarlison and Harry Kane to play alongside each other. That will open the door for Sessegnon to control the entire left side of the pitch himself and open the door to a plethora of crosses. Sessegnon if given the chance, could hit value and some. Through two starts, the defender has 1 goal, 3 shots, 4 crosses, 2 tackles and 4 clearances.
Goalies
Hugo Lloris-DK $5.7K || FD $13
Lloris is expected to be the chalk keeper with the downturn in form from Chelsea’s defense and keeper. However, the only troubling part for Lloris is his ceiling. He has only made a max of 3 saves – twice – this season and the rest of the matches have all been 1 save each. This is concerning in the case that Fulham could get a goal from their star striker. Otherwise, Lloris at least poses some value.
Dean Henderson-DK $5.2K || FD $12
Despite Henderson getting rocked at the midweek against Manchester City, the keeper is still averaging, 5 saves per 90 minutes in all competitions. He will now get the chance to bounce back against a putrid Cherries offense playing at home. To make matters more appealing, Bournemouth has only scored twice and both goals were in their season-debut win at home against Aston Villa. Since then, they have been shut out in four consecutive matches. Henderson has the potential to have the best ceiling on the slate for the goalkeeper position.
Expected Corner Takers:
Brentford: Jensen
Leeds: Harrison
Chelsea: Mount/James
West Ham United: Digne
Newcastle United: Trippier/Fraser
Crystal Palace: Eze
Nottingham Forest: Williams
AFC Bournemouth: Tavernier
Wolverhampton: Neto/Nunes
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Tottenham Hotspurs: Kulusevski
Fulham: Pereira
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
