RADIO
There is a thing the NFL does that the NBA does not: hand a Comeback Player of the Year award after every season. As the very own NFL defines it, this award is given "to the player who shows perseverance in overcoming adversity, in the form of not being in the NFL the previous year, overcoming a severe injury, or simply a poor performance."
With that in mind, I'm bringing this accolade to the realm of (fantasy) basketball and giving you some names of who should be candidates to have a "Comeback Season" in 2022-23 after missing time of late or straight playing way below their true-talent level in the past few months and/or years. With more than 450 players regularly playing in the NBA, it's understandable that you have forgotten about some of those guys missing time recently and for long periods of time.
Here are a few picks of players with G/F eligibility expected to have bounceback campaigns when the upcoming season tips off that you might draft without other fantasy GMs really noticing those players' presence on the board after they forgot about them!
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Fantasy Basketball Comeback Candidates - Guards and Small Wings
Markelle Fultz, PG/SG - Orlando Magic
When I checked Yahoo's first list of ADP figures in the early draft season earlier this month, I was surprised to find Markelle Fultz making the top-250 cut. I rate him much higher than that, mind you, but that involuntary reaction should let you know how poorly rated Fultz is in most NBA and fantasy basketball corners and how low the expectations and hopes of a revival of his career are.
All of that, though, is pure nonsense. Fultz's getting drafted with around the 140th OVR pick in fantasy leagues at the start of September. He's nearly the 85th guard-eligible player off the board, judging by Yahoo's position assignments. Of course, it's impossible to compare Fultz's ADP to his recent ranks as he's only played eight and 18 games respectively in the last two seasons.
Fultz's proper assessment comes by looking at his underlying, per-game, and efficiency numbers more than his total haul of FP. Fultz averaged 26+ FPPG in the two seasons prior to 2022, and then 24.2 last year (in just 18 games, remember, 15 of them playing 20 MPG off the pine). The truth is that on a finer level of detail, Fultz's performances have improved steadily for four consecutive seasons: Fultz has gone from averaging 0.86 FP/min in 2019 to 0.94, 0.99, and finally 1.21 (!) last year, on par with some superstar players out there.
Of course, Fultz's upside will never be on balance with that of players fully available throughout the season--not until he proves capable of featuring in 72 games once more as he did back in 2020. If he gets there, though, and with Orlando loading on frontcourt players this offseason instead of bolstering an already crowded backcourt, we could see Fultz put on very tasty numbers for fantasy GMs next year.
Fultz was good for a nice 11-2-5-1 line last season in just 20 MPG. He's not going to play 36 MPG any time soon, of course, but even getting some 28 MPG he could easily put up a 14-3-6-1 line without much trouble. Pro-rate that to a 70-games-played season and Fultz could get into the top-50 OVR players of 2023--something comparable to 1999 Darrell Armstrong's season.
Collin Sexton, PG/SG - Utah Jazz
It takes a lot to stay at the top of the NBA game and sustain a longer-than-five-year career at the highest of professional levels. It takes even more to do so while boasting a skill set predicated on scoring and not much more. Ask Sexton, who up until the Donovan Mitchell trade, was about to get a one-year extension from Cleveland after spending four seasons with the Cavs and getting named their new cornerstone and franchise guy not long ago.
Sexton is now in Salt Lake City and attached to a saucy four-year deal extended by Utah. The Jazz are making Sexton the face of the franchise at least until they get some inevitably high-lottery pick in the next draft and all of those coming in future summers. Sexton, if you remember, missed virtually all of last season, appearing in just 11 games after suffering an injury that forced him out of the remainder of the year.
While Sexton is not the ultimate playmaker (as Cleveland wanted to force him into being in his first two seasons with the Cavs), he's a walking bucket with some diming/rebounding/stealing upside. The turnovers are going to hurt all of the time because Sexton is a reckless player, but he makes up for that by scoring points in bunches--although not in the most efficient of ways, mind you.
Sexton's injury might give pause to some GMs out there but should be no real reason for concern. He's played 60+ games in all of his other three seasons as a pro while logging 31.8+ MPG in all of those years. It sounds ridiculous, but looking at NBA history, only 15 players have been able to post a career average through their age-23 seasons reading 20-3-3, Sexton being one of them. The company is insane: LeBron, T-Mac, Melo, Tatum, Kyrie, Iverson, Trae, Doncic, and the very own Donovan Mitchell.
Victor Oladipo, SG - Miami Heat
Oladipo has gone through so much in his NBA career that it's easy to forget that time only goes forward for everybody and that you cannot just sit out there waiting for your moment to come without aging. That's why Dipo is about to play his age-30 (!) season with the Heat in 2022 after having burnt nine seasons of professional play in the NBA.
Sadly, though, he's only topped 70 games played in four of those nine years and it's been now four seasons in a row for Oladipo appearing in fewer than 40 contests. Last season marked the first time Dipo hit another low in his career after starting only one of the eight games he played with Miami, kind of showcasing what might be ahead for him come next season--a limited 21 MPG having played at least 27+ MPG in all seasons before that one.
Dipo, even on a bench role, should have enough fuel and ability in him to keep up with most players on that similar usage. On a per-minute basis, Oladipo has been (and should remain) a machine. He's posted figures above 1.05 in four of the past five seasons (including 2022), and in three of those, he reached marks above 1.10 FP/min. The per-game averages aren't much worse, mind you, with those three aforementioned years hitting 36+ FPPG.
Dipo is a natural scorer and should hit a customary 12-to-14 PPG even on that limited 20 MPG, off-the-pine role next year. Add some assists (3+), rebounds (2+), and steals (1+), and you have a solid rotation player. If he can sustain the shooting he briefly teased last season (47.9/41.7/73.7 splits) on 9+ FGA and 4+ 3PA, then Dipo should be a terrific late-draft pick for any and every fantasy GM out there.
Joe Harris, SG/SF - Brooklyn Nets
Harris can be considered Ben Simmons Lite. in the context of Brooklyn. Obviously, they don't have anything to do with each other in terms of skill set but I was talking about their role in the Nets going forward and following the KD no-trade and the Kyrie Irving ultimate extension to remain in BK for at least one more year. Harris, mind you, played basketball in the borough last year but could only do so for 14 games before getting his run halted due to a season-ending injury.
Going in Harris' Comeback Case favor is the fact that the guard/forward is not really one whose game is predicated on athleticism. He is, in fact, the antithesis of that type of player. Harris has posted playing times above 30 MPG for four consecutive seasons but he finds his mojo in the perimeter and shooting.
Harris has attempted 5.1+ 3PA per game in all of those years while hitting 42.4% of those in all of those seasons. You can count all players that have done that in the history of the NBA since its inception on one hand. Harris (four times), J.J. Redick (four), Kyle Korver (five), and Steph Curry (six). That's it, that's the full list, and there is nothing stopping Harris from getting on the outside part of the three-point zone, waiting for a ball dished out by KD/Kyrie/Simmons, and hitting triples in bunches next season.
The rest of his numbers are going to be limited, but that's reasonable and something you should definitely be able to cope with. And hey, it's not that averaging 4+ RPG, 1.5+ APG, and fewer than 1.5 TOPG is even remotely bad, is it? Assuming a healthy season (that's around 70 games played for Harris given his recent past), Harris can be considered a lock to end the year as a top-50 player with either G/F eligibility.
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