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Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count!
This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week, ahead of the Sunday night waiver wire runs for leagues with weekly transactions.
This list will be limited to players under 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues and divided into three sections based on recommendation levels: solid starters, risky streamers, and must-avoids.
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Solid Two-Start Pitcher Streamers
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds - 53% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. BOS, vs. MIL
The lefty has 31 strikeouts in his last three starts with just one walk. That is an astounding ratio. He has thrown six or more innings in four straight and five of his last six. Anybody with this many strikeouts and so few walks coming is going to have success, even in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league.
The matchup with the Red Sox isn't the danger spot it once was, as they have hit about a league-average slash line of .264/.320/.412 against lefties since July began. They have struck out a bunch (26.6%), which is a great sign for Lodolo's prospects. The Brewers are a great matchup for lefties, as they've hit just .209/.298/.337 since July against the southpaw with an astounding 28.7% K%. Lodolo should be started in darn near every league right now.
Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs - 21% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ MIA, @ PIT
He has a mediocre 23% K% since August 1, but a good 6.7% BB% and a nice .263 xwOBA. He got roughed up by the Cardinals recently, a forgivable sin, but other than that he's been pretty clear since August. You cannot ask for better matchups than two starts in Miami and Pittsburgh right now, so I'm all in on streaming Smyly next week.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox - 8% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ CIN, @ NYY
I think this rookie has figured something out in the bigs. He was brutal in his first stint with the Red Sox and then was sent back down to the minors for two outings. Since returning, he has put up some pretty solid numbers in five starts. He has thrown fewer sinkers and has upped the usage of the four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Over these 25.1 innings, he has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with a solid enough 25.2% K% and a 9.3% BB%. That's a good walk number from him, and that was something that absolutely needed to be improved upon if he was going to have major league success.
He's a very talented pitcher with a huge ground-ball rate, giving him huge upside. It's hard to love two starts in Great American Ballpark and Yankee Stadium, but neither of those lineups is overly imposing at this point and the ground-ball rate will help him keep the ball inside of those small parks. I'm in on Bello for the rest of the year.
Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates - 28% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ NYY, vs. CHC
He still isn't getting many strikeouts (17% K% over his last 6), but he's kept hitters off balance (.186 AVG, .281 xwOBA). It has been since August 17 (five starts) since he's given up more than two runs, and over his last five starts, he has a 1.66 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He's probably not your guy in a quality start league, going six or more innings just once in his last four. The Pirates have no reason to push him, and the strikeouts are low as we mentioned, but you could do worse than Roansy if you're really looking for innings next week.
Risky Two-Start Pitcher Streamer Picks
Adrian Sampson, TeamName - 4% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ MIA, @ PIT
Two great matchups for Sampson here, and have seen plenty of good starts from him this year. He's coming off of back-to-back quality starts against the Reds and Mets, giving up just one run over 12 innings. Unfortunately, the strikeouts have come way down as he has just ten strikeouts over his last 23.1 innings. That is not a recipe for success, but the good news is that the Marlins and Pirates can't do much offensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sampson have a couple of quality starts here and help a fantasy team's ratios.
Jose Suarez, Los Angeles Angels - 26% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. SEA, @ MIN
Angels pitchers rarely actually get two starts given their six-man rotation, but for right now Suarez is scheduled to start two games for them next week. He has gone more than five innings in all of his last nine starts and has limited the damage in that time, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of those outings. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with a 22.5% K% and a 4.8% BB% since July 26, covering eight starts.
He won't get many quality starts, and he won't win a ton of games, but he keeps runs off the board and there are certainly worse options hanging around here.
Aaron Civale, Cleveland Guardians - 26% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ CWS, @ TEX
He has kept the strikeout rate above league average in the second half, with a 26% K% in his five starts with a 3.33 ERA and a 0.99 WIHP. The walks are good (7%) as usual, and these matchups could certainly be worse.
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals - 26% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. MIN, vs. SEA
I don't really see any reason to absorb the risk of Greinke given the lack of potential reward. He has three quality starts over his last five starts, but he's killing your strikeout total/rate and never doing a ton for your ratios either. The walk rate is good but not elite, and he gives up plenty of hits with all of the contact he surrenders. I prefer plenty of other two-start pitchers to Greinke, but a couple of quality starts and wins is within the range of outcomes for him here against the Twins and Mariners.
Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins - 15% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ KC, vs. LAA
This is right on the fringe of "risky" and "do not do it", but I elect to put him in "risky" because of the matchups. He hasn't struck out more than six hitters since June 18, and he hasn't reached six innings since June 24. The Twins are very quick to pull him from the game, so he's certainly a "no-go" in quality start leagues.
Stay Away from these Two-Start Pitchers
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles - 13% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. DET, vs. HOU
Chad Kuhl, Colorado Rockies - 13% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. SF, vs. SD
JP Sears, Oakland Athletics - 13% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. SEA, vs. NYM
Austin Voth, Baltimore Orioles - 10% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. DET, vs. HOU
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies - 10% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. SF, vs. SD
Zach Davies, Arizona Diamondbacks - 7% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ LAD, vs. SF
Joey Wentz, Detroit Tigers - 2% Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ BAL, @ CWS
Cole Ragans, Texas Rangers - 1% Rostered
Scheduled starts: vs. LAA, vs. CLE
Cory Abbott, Washington Nationals - % Rostered
Scheduled starts: @ ATL, @ MIA
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