RADIO
It's Fantasy Football Playoffs Time - Are You Ready?
Ryan Fitzpatrick. Colt McCoy. The Jacksonville Jaguars Defense. Shaun Hill. Kendall Wright. Donte Moncrief. Deandre Hopkins. That’s the short list of fantasy standouts from Week 13, and I can say with full confidence that that is a list no one anticipated. Sure, plenty of the true stars showed up as well, but when you have Ryan Fitzpatrick out there throwing six touchdowns while Peyton Manning struggles, it’s impossible to ignore.
Kudos to you if you started any of those random players who just happened to have a big day. The likelihood of any of those guys (and the Jacksonville D) remaining key contributors for the fantasy playoffs is pretty slim (except for Hopkins), so it’s not like you should get your waiver wire claims ready. Speaking of which, this late into the season true waiver wire claims are few and far between outside of injuries. Fortunately for you, you’re in the playoffs anyway and can get by on your current roster, assuming you've avoided the injury bug.
Week 14 NFL Injury Update
While we’re on the subject of injuries, I should point out that we have yet to hear about the severity of the ones that occurred this week. DeSean Jackson, Rashad Jennings, Torrey Smith, Andre Ellington and Zach Mettenberger all left their respective games with a variety of ailments. Jackson left the Redskins loss to the colts with what was described as a “fibula contusion,” and it actually looked worse than it sounds. If Jackson were to miss a few weeks, we'd be looking at a return to relevancy for Pierre Garcon.
Rashad Jennings and Andre Ellington should be the least surprising names to get dinged up, considering their injury history. Jennings left with an ankle injury while Ellington exited due to a hip pointer. Andre Williams would be the obvious fill-in for Jennings, but I can’t imagine starting him in any playoff matchup. Williams had been surprisingly awful while filling in for Jennings, so there’s just no way to feel confident about using him with elimination on the line, even with the tasty matchup against Tennessee next week. While the next man up is clear in New York, the Cardinals are the exact opposite. Should Ellington miss any time, we’re looking at a crowded mess with Michael Bush, Stepfan Taylor and Marion Grice vying for playing time. That’s another situation I'd prefer to avoid entirely.
Mettenberger will also be listed as questionable for the Giants/Titans matchup, as he injured his right AC joint. Mettenberger has actually made the Titans offense look better, so I do think it would be a downgrade from him back to Jake Locker should Mettenberger be unable to go. That leaves us with Torrey Smith, who was seen limping after missing the final series for the Ravens. This is another guy whose injury is still murky, at best. We’ll know more as the week progresses, but did you really feel comfortable starting Torrey Smith lately anyway?
Lastly, before we dive into the games, I would like to remind you that if you’ve been fortunate enough to clinch a playoff spot, now is not the time to tinker with your lineup. Don’t get fancy and start overthinking it in Week 14. Dance with who brung ya.
Week 12 Game-by-Game Analysis & Fantasy Playoffs Prep
Bears @ Lions
So Calvin Johnson is back and healthy. Megatron put up big numbers on Thanksgiving with his 146 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions. Golden Tate has actually managed to stay afloat now that Calvin Johnson is back in the lineup, which is pretty surprising. Tate could be a usable WR3 for the playoff push, even with Calvin on the field. Don't you wish the Lions could just come out and say they plan on starting Joique Bell even after Reggie Bush comes back? Bell has proven that he is now the best running back in Detroit, so I'd hate to see his production diminished once Bush returns. Personally, I’m only starting Bell if I absolutely have to, but you can't ignore him getting all 23 rushing attempts and getting into the endzone twice. When he’s the only guy in the backfield he’s clearly usable.
As for the Bears, Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery were this week’s Bears breakouts, with Bennett racking up 109 yards while Jeffery reeled in two touchdowns. I've said for weeks that the Bears pretty much rotate their fantasy points between Bennett, Jeffery, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall. When a team has that many weapons, it’s rare that all four guys go off, so you just have to accept the good with the bad. If you've made it this far starting a Bear every week, be warned that there’s at least a 25% chance you'll be let down in your playoff matchup.
Eagles @ Cowboys
Congratulations to those of you who stuck it out with LeSean McCoy and can now exhale heading into the fantasy postseason. McCoy finally broke out for a big 159-yard game with a touchdown against the Cowboys, while Jeremy Maclin continued his big year with 108 yards. The Eagles remain one of the most potent offenses in the league, so it’s no surprise that rookie Jordan Matthews is also coming around as well. Matthews caught another touchdown in this game, and he's a solid FLEX option the rest of the way. He has far surpassed Riley Cooper as the number two receiver in Philadelphia.
I don't know what to say about DeMarco Murray anymore. I’m still terrified that he’s going to get hurt but it’s way too late to do anything about it. Just rub your lucky rabbit’s foot, suck on a horseshoe and start searching for four-leaf clovers so he doesn't injure himself. There really wasn't much else to report on in this game, other than Tony Romo being extremely disappointing. It’s December folks. Bad Romo is coming to town.
Seahawks @ 49ers
Is there any San Francisco 49er you feel comfortable starting in a playoff matchup? Not me. I've been a big Frank Gore fan and fantasy supporter, but either the 49ers refuse to give him the ball enough to be effective, or he's ineffective when he gets the touches. Gore has lost a step for sure, but the Niners also aren't feeding him enough. 10 rushing attempts just isn't enough for a guy who should be a legit RB2. This is part coaching and part performance, but either way, as a Gore owner in two leagues, I’m nervous heading into the playoffs. No one else in San Francisco is usable or even worth holding on to at this point.
If you've made it this far with Michael Crabtree or Colin Kaepernick, I’m assuming the rest of your roster is stacked, considering how disappointing both guys have been this year. It’s becoming more and more likely that coach John Harbaugh will be leaving San Francisco after this season, so I’m curious to see what the offense looks like in 2015. There’s a decent chance an offensive-minded guy comes in and breathes new life into Kaepernick, Crabtree, Carlos Hyde (I’m assuming Gore is gone as well), Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis, and Anquan Boldin. That’s a lot of household names that are droppable on one team.
As far as Seattle is concerned, you don’t need me to tell you how good Marshawn Lynch is. 104 yards is legit, and the team only needed 19 points to beat San Francisco, so you can’t be too disappointed in the lack of touchdowns for Beast Mode.
Titans @ Texans
Ryan Freakin' Fitzpatrick. Six, SIX touchdowns for Fitzpatrick, with a distribution of two to Hopkins and one apiece for Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Ryan Griffin (who?) and J.J. Watt. With the way Watt has been playing this year, it’s possible he ends up as both the MVP and a fantasy tight end in 2015. I say that half sarcastically, since his usage is nowhere close to eligibility requirements, but it can’t be argued that Watt has had better a better fantasy season at tight end than a good portion of the other available options.
This game wasn't all about Watt, however, with DeAndre Hopkins piling up a massive 238-yard day. Hopkins has emerged tremendously, far surpassing Andre Johnson as Houston’s number one receiver. If you were lucky enough to snag Hopkins in a keeper or dynasty, a tip of the cap to you, my friend. He’s been exceptional this year, and should be a top-20 wide receiver for the playoffs as well as for next season.
As I mentioned earlier, Zach Mettenberger left this game with an injury, leaving us with a 6-for-12 Jake Locker who even managed to throw two interceptions. Kendall Wright ended up having a big day here with 132 yards and a touchdown, but again, can you really trust Wright in a playoff matchup, especially if Locker is back out there? I think not. And of course, the Titans run game continues to be an absolute mess. Avoid, avoid, avoid.
Browns @ Bills
Oh, boy. It appears the Johnny Football era may officially be upon us… maybe? After coming in for a struggling Brian Hoyer, Manziel looked like, well, a solid NFL rookie. He had a flashy run for a touchdown, showing fans why the Browns traded up to draft him in the first place, but he also fumbled later in the game. Manziel may end up being a fine NFL QB in time, but for now, I’m ignoring him for fantasy purposes. Head Coach Mike Pettine declined to name the starter for next week’s game against the Colts, but with Indianapolis potentially missing cornerback Vontae Davis, Josh Gordon might have an absolute field day regardless of who is throwing him the football.
The Bills defense has been stellar when the matchup is right, so it’s no surprise that the team limited the Browns to just 10 points. Gordon still managed to end up with 75 yards while both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West struggled on the ground. You kind of have to just throw away this game from a Browns offense perspective. Crowell remains a low-end RB2 while Gordon is a no brainer WR1. The big plays will come; I’m confident in starting Gordon in the playoffs. Bills wise, it was nice to see my guy Fred Jackson return to form on 21 rushes for 70 yards. He’s a solid RB2 in a league where solid is the new great at running back.
Chargers @ Ravens
This game ended up being a surprising shootout, with the Chargers pulling off the win late in the fourth quarter. Keenan Allen is starting to look like the guy we all hoped he would continue to be after his big breakout rookie campaign last year. Allen has quietly put together two big games in a row, finding the endzone twice here on 11 receptions for 121 yards. Allen has been a WR3 at best, but this could be a sign that he’s starting to heat up at the right time for both real-life and fantasy purposes. The Chargers have a legit shot at making the playoffs, so if they’re smart, they’ll continue to feed Allen rather than spread the ball around so thin that all of the receivers are a crapshoot the way they usually do.
Justin Forsett of the Baltimore Ravens might be the biggest surprise at running back in 2014. Forsett was essentially left for dead as the third man on the depth chart heading into the season prior to Ray Rice’s surprising year-long suspension. This week, Forsett managed to put together yet another big game with 106 yards on 24 carries. He’s another solid RB2, which is a huge surprise. Kudos to you if you managed to pick him up and actually start him consistently.
By the way, if Torrey Smith ends up missing time, that’s a huge boost for Steve Smith. If you've ever read anything I've written about the two Smiths in Baltimore, you know that I’ve always claimed this offense can’t support two fantasy wide receivers, but it certainly can support one. Steve Smith would be an easy top-15 receiver with Torrey Smith sidelined.
Raiders @ Rams
52-0. We’re going to have to make this one quick and painless. The Raiders used up all their good mojo for the year by beating Kansas City on Thursday night two weeks ago, but 52-0 is amazingly bad. It certainly doesn't help when Tre Mason goes off for 157 total yards and three touchdowns. A buddy of mine actually had the guts to start Mason over Arian Foster, a decision that I was against, but he clearly proved me wrong on that one. There honestly isn't much else to talk about in this game. The Raiders are terrible; the Rams are better than they get credit for. Next.
Redskins @ Colts
Want some reassurance that benching Robert Griffin III was the right idea? How about 392 yards and three touchdowns from Colt McCoy of all people? The touchdowns went to DeSean Jackson, Roy Helu, and Logan Paulsen, but the important bit here is the 123 yards from tight end Jordan Reed. McCoy clearly looked for Reed frequently, as evidenced by his team-leading nine receptions. The starting tight end in Washington has consistently held fantasy value under head coach Jay Gruden, so it was nice to see Reed continue that trend. Good tight ends are hard to come by, and practically all of them are touchdown dependent, so Reed is definitely usable on a weekly basis.
As for the Colts, Andrew Luck salvaged his interception and early fumble with five touchdowns, but the fumbles are becoming a thing with him as of late. As an Andrew Luck owner, I am in no way concerned about starting him in the playoffs; it’s just equal parts mind-boggling and frustrating that he’s suddenly become fumble-prone. I hope this is just a fluke and that he manages to hold on to the ball for the next few weeks. Big-name receivers T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne were overlooked for the likes of Coby Fleener and Donte Moncrief. What are you gonna do? Fleener is a legit TE1 with Dwayne Allen out, and Moncrief is a replacement-level WR3 at best.
Giants @ Jaguars
While watching this game, the second I saw them up by 11 but struggling, I turned to a different buddy of mine and bet that the Giants would blow this game. Sure enough, the wheels fell off and the Jags ended up squeaking out the 25-24 victory. A week removed from the greatest catch in NFL history, Odell Beckham ended up with a respectable 90 yards on seven catches. As good as he is, you can’t expect a ridiculous play for a touchdown every week, so 90 yards is nothing to sneeze at. We've already covered how I feel about Andre Williams as a Rashad Jennings replacement, so there’s no need to rehash that.
In a somewhat surprising turn of events, Jacksonville only gave the ball to Denard Robinson 11 times. Robinson has been solid since the midway point of the season, so it's a bit strange to see the Jaguars shy away from the only guy who has been consistent over the last few weeks. That said, though, they did manage to win this game anyway, so what do I know? Guess that’s why I’m not a head coach in the NFL.
Panthers @ Vikings
Essentially every single Carolina Panther was disappointing in this game. Well, there are really only three relevant Panthers anyway in Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, and Kelvin Benjamin. Newton is another guy who, if on your roster this late in the season, you’ve managed to win in spite of his poor play. Benjamin and Olsen are clearly studs, however, so this game is kind of a throwaway performance for them.
The Minnesota defense has quietly developed into one of the more consistent squads in the league. I was lucky enough to start them this week, and in looking at their remaining schedule, the only matchup that scares you is their Week 15 bout with the Detroit Lions. That game is sandwiched between matchups with the Jets and Dolphins, so I feel extremely confident in starting them in the playoffs. Most fantasy leagues only run through Week 16, so I’m not considering their Week 17 game against the Bears, which, like the Lions, would worry me.
Saints @ Steelers
This was the game I watched the most of, and I can tell you with certainty that the final score of 35-32 in favor of the Saints is a lot closer than this game actually looked. Ben Roethlisberger struggled for much of the game, despite salvaging his day with late touchdowns to Antonio Brown. Le'veon Bell, however, put up huge numbers with 254 total yards on 21 carries and eight receptions. It’s amazing what losing some weight in the offseason and facing the most overrated defensive coordinator in the league in Rob Ryan can do for you. Martavis Bryant has finally cooled off as of late, catching just one pass for 23 yards here. Bryant had been a WR3 over the course of a few weeks in the middle of the season, but has since relegated back down to a high-risk/high-reward FLEX play. I still think he’s the number two receiver on the team, despite Markus Wheaton’s five receptions.
Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns here to five different receivers, including Kenny Stills who had a big day with 162 yards. Much like with every Saints player not named Brees or Jimmy Graham, Stills has huge risk attached to him, considering how much the Saints like to spread the ball around. That said, Stills has WR2 potential any given week now that Brandin Cooks is done for the year and Marques Colston has basically evaporated.
I had been saying for weeks to enjoy Mark Ingram while you can, because once Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson return, this is back to being a three-headed monster. As it turns out, Ingram actually rushed 23 times to the tune of 122 yards with Thomas back in the lineup. Maybe this was simply gameflow, strategy, or the Saints have finally decided to stick with one running back. Whatever the case may be, be wary that New Orleans could easily revert to splitting the workload.
Bengals @ Buccaneers
How about this 14-13 barnburner that saw just one scoring play in the fourth quarter? There was absolutely no fantasy value to be had in this game outside of A.J. Green’s lone touchdown. I mean seriously, every fantasy-relevant player disappointed in this game. Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Mohamed Sanu, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and the entire Tampa Bay backfield were letdowns. Yes, I know Doug Martin did get into the endzone, but to that I say, "Who cares?" Martin has been below average up until this point, so I have absolutely no issue with dropping him. He shouldn't be anywhere close to your starting lineup in a playoff matchup, so go ahead and cut him loose.
Cardinals @ Falcons
Roddy White missed this game with an ankle injury, allowing Julio Jones to go off for 189 yards and a touchdown. As expected, Harry Douglas filled in nicely for Roddy with his 116-yard performance. Douglas has always been the non-traditional handcuff to both Roddy White and Julio Jones, so if you decided to wait to see if Roddy was playing, scooping up Douglas at the last minute was probably the wise move. Steven Jackson had himself a day here as well, to the tune of 101 yards on 18 attempts. Jackson has gone under the radar in terms of being a usable RB2/FLEX play as we head to the playoffs.
The Cardinals seem to be imploding after losing Carson Palmer a few weeks ago as the entire offense struggled here. Atlanta won this game 29-18, but it felt a lot more like a blowout in watching Arizona struggle. Larry Fitzgerald was absent for this game, as well, but honestly, I don’t think any Arizona wide receiver is worth owning or starting this late into the year, unless you’re absolutely desperate.
Patriots @ Packers
The game of the year lived up to the hype with the Packers hanging on to their 26-21 lead to win it. Green Bay’s two touchdowns went to Jordy Nelson and Richard Rodgers, while Eddie Lacy put up 98 yards. Lacy has turned into a low-end RB1 these days, but his opportunities for scoring touchdowns are far too great to worry about him. Randall Cobb led the Packers in receptions with seven, while Davante Adams led in yards with 121. The Packers look like the best team in the NFL right now, so it’s no surprise that they’re getting production from several different players at once.
As expected, the Patriots opted for somewhat of a timeshare at running back ,with Blount getting just 10 carries after his big day the week prior. Patriots running backs are an enigma with Bill Belichick shuffling guys like crazy. I’ve never been able to trust any New England running back in the regular season, so there’s just no way I’m going near any of them for the playoffs. They’re all essentially only worth owning for depth purposes in the event one of your starters goes down.
As far as the passing attack is concerned, Brandon LaFell reeled in both of Tom Brady’s touchdowns while Rob Gronkowski led the team in receiving yards at 98. Gronk has managed to put together another stellar year now that he is fully healthy, so I'd expect him to go right back into second-round territory in 2015.
Broncos @ Chiefs
If you had told me that the Kansas City Chiefs would hold Peyton Manning to just 179 yards and two touchdowns, I probably would have taken the Chiefs to beat the spread. Nevertheless, Denver still managed to win by 13 on the heels of C.J. Anderson’s 168 yards on 32 attempts. It’s seriously amazing to me how productive both Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have been in Montee Ball’s absence. Ball had been one of the most disappointing players of 2014 when healthy, especially considering that running backs in a Peyton Manning offense have traditionally held huge value in fantasy. I’m curious to see how the workload ends up splitting once Hillman returns, and even more curious to see what this backfield looks like in 2015.
All three guys are under contract for next season, but you know nothing is guaranteed in today's NFL-- it wouldn't shock me to see Denver cut one or even two of these guys and stick with the one they feel is their running back of the future. If I own any of these guys in a keeper or dynasty league, I’d be selling for whatever I could get in the offseason before the Broncos can make a move. It’s not the production I’m worried about, but the uncertainty as far as not knowing who the starter is going to be.
I realize I just spent a lot of time discussing the Denver run game and haven’t even gotten to the Chiefs yet, but do you really want me to? They were a complete wasteland on offense, with Jamaal Charles continuing to be the only guy you can feel good about starting, though even he had just an okay game by his standards. 59 total yards and one touchdown is disappointing for a guy you spent a first-round pick on.
Ray Rice Wins his Appeal
That wraps up the Week 13 slate, but I do want to briefly touch on the biggest off-the-field story of the week with Ray Rice winning his appeal. Rice is now free to sign with any team in the league, and the first rumor suggests the Colts are showing interest. My advise? Don’t bother adding Ray Rice regardless of where he goes. Do you know how many things would have to go right in order for that to end up being a good move? Rice would have to actually sign with a team that is good enough to utilize him immediately. He'd then have to prove he's better than his 2013 season showed, a year in which he was just dreadful. We don’t even know what kind of shape he’s in in terms of football conditioning.
Unlike Josh Gordon, whom we know was able to practice on his own and stay in football shape, we have no idea what Ray Rice has been doing since his suspension. And Rice has yet to actually sign with a team, so you could be burning a roster spot on a guy who doesn’t even end up with a roster spot anywhere. You could literally be holding on to a free agent for four weeks. It’s the playoffs-- you've gotten this far without him, don’t bother with him now. Don’t tinker, don’t get fancy.
