BALLER MOVE: Target as OF3
ANALYSIS: Oswaldo Arcia will turn 24 in May, and has yet to play a full season in the majors. Still, in just 723 career AB, he has crushed 34 HR and knocked in 100 runs, including 20 HR and 57 RBI in just 372 AB in 2014. In a full season, these numbers project to roughly 30 HR and 90 RBI, a combination only nine major leaguers managed last year.
Arcia landed 43rd among outfielders on Rotoballer's first composite rankings for 2015, yet only 18 players in all of baseball (min. 400 PA) posted an ISO (Isolated Power) higher than Arcia's .220 mark. Arcia's impressive ISO was well above that of many bigger names, such as Yoenis Cespedes, who was ranked 19th. Fangraphs projects Cespedes for a .268/.319/.467 slash line with 24 HR, 75 R and 86 RBI, and Arcia for a .258/.320/.469 slash line with 24 HR, 65 R and 74 RBI. If the two end up with similar numbers, Arcia would be a much better bet, given the disparity between their perceived values.
Arcia has displayed great power at age 23, and should continue to develop, especially if he can increase his contact percentage. If there really are 40+ OF taken before Arcia in your draft, grab him as quickly as possible.
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