Carlos Martinez: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Baby Pedro

Carlos Martinez, aka Baby Pedro, has been a touted by prospect analysts for quite some time. Ranked #31 by Baseball America in 2014, he spent last year in the eighth inning role setting up Trevor Rosenthal. This year, he is getting the chance to compete for the fifth spot in the starting rotation with Marcos Gonzales and Jaime Garcia. Gonzales is reportedly a strong candidate for the bullpen, and Garcia cannot stay healthy. Therefore, Martinez is the favorite to hold down the role. It was reported the Cardinals preferred keeping Martinez over Shelby Miller in the Heyward trade, which goes to show they have faith in the youngster.

Martinez's numbers last year were nothing to write home about - he finished with a 4.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts over 89 innings. His 8.46 K/9 was respectable, but his 3.63 BB/9 needs improvement in order to lower that ugly WHIP.

He already has a solid arsenal with a fastball that reached 100 MPH (average is 96.1) and a devastating slider that produced a 23.7 SwStr% (SwStr% = Swings and misses / Total pitches), well above the league average. That's pretty good considering he only started throwing the hard breaker because hitters were able to pick up on his curve.  Check out its damage against Andrew McCutchen.

Martinez is in a great situation to excel for a team that should contend for a World Series title this year. The Cardinals only produced 3.82 runs per game in 2014, 23rd overall, but the addition of Jason Heyward along with Kolton Wong’s progression should help improve the offense. Better run support should help Martinez to win more games.

There’s one main drawback with Martinez: he has been turrible at getting lefties out. Check out his splits last year against both sides of the plate.

This is a definite reason why many fantasy owners are not investing, but he's only 23 with room for improvement. Mike Podhorzer at FanGraphs wrote an excellent article comparing Carlos Martinez to the pre-2014 version of Carrasco. I agree with Podhorzer's analysis that Martinez is unlikely to become this year's Carrasco, but his ceiling is still a top 40 SP for 2015. Martinez is likely to have an innings limit considering he has not exceeded 108 innings in a season, but that's why he comes at a discounted price.

Early reports out of Spring Training have been positive. He's been featuring his changeup and plans to incorporate the pitch into his arsenal more often in 2015 (only thrown 9.3% in 2014).  Another key development is Yadier Molina's request that Martinez's locker be moved next to him. Always a good sign when a seven-time NL Gold Glove winner is in your corner.
 

In Summary

If Martinez’s ADP was not in the upper 250s I would recommend passing on the righty this year. He is a low-risk flier for the back end of your fantasy rotation. Don't be shocked if Martinez cracks the top 40 SP. I'd draft Martinez over the likes of Trevor Bauer, R.A. Dickey, and Nathan Eovaldi, and if he doesn’t pan out it will cost you nothing.