RADIO
We've talked already about the value of balancing patience and proactivity in the early going. That said, as April draws to a close, it behooves us to reassess the fantasy outlook for some players. The following half-dozen hitters have given fantasy owners reason to question their initial valuations.
Three Trending Up
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
The man they call Moose Tacos was the second overall pick in the 2007 draft and looked every bit the part as he rose through the minors. In his first full major league season back in 2012, he hit 20 homers and played a stellar third base, though his OBP clocked in at a middling .296. Each of the last two seasons has seen that mark decline along with his power. This lack of production came on the heels of Moustakas annihilating baseballs in the spring training. So when he had another excellent showing this March, fantasy owners were justified in their lack of excitement.
Naturally, this time around he’s carried that success over into April, hitting .346/.418/.519 through his first 20 games. The .362 BABIP sets off some alarm bells given that it’s almost 100 points above his career mark. A more thorough analysis, however, reveals that Mousatakas has simply looked like a different hitter this year. He’s using the whole field, hitting more line drives and striking out less. Even in a small sample, those are encouraging trends – and quite possibly signs of a legitimate breakout.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Back in March, I boldly predicted that Votto would finish in the top five at his position. No one else on the RotoBaller staff had him ranked higher than seventh in our preseason rankings, and three writers put him at 14th or lower. Early returns are looking pretty rosy for yours truly. Votto has a .316/.429/.645 line through 20 games, with seven homers and 29 R+RBI. He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone and hitting more fly balls than he has since 2010, the best season of his career. He’s also laying off more pitches outside than zone than ever before. Votto isn’t going to keep up the 50 HR pace all season, but he doesn’t need to in order to provide significant value to your roster.
Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Let's get the obvious out of the way - that .419 BABIP is going to come down, and when it does Pederson will be the batting average liability we expected. He's also been caught on three of his four stolen base attempts to date. But you've gotta love any rookie who shows the ludicrous level of plate discipline that Yung Joc has, with 16 walks in just 73 plate appearances. He hit out of the leadoff spot for the first time on Wednesday night and went deep on the second pitch he saw. Assuming BABIP regression doesn't hit too hard, he'll be a fixture there for a while. Regardless of where he slots in the batting order though, Pederson still has serious 20/20 potential.
Three Trending Down
Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
Every season there are a couple of players you identify as draft targets that, for one reason or another, don't end up on any of your rosters. Gattis was one such player for me this year, and so far that counts as a bullet dodged. While his move to DH has resulted in more at-bats, Gattis hasn't benefited much from the transition to Houston, posting a putrid .162/.197/.294 line. Those numbers are suppressed in part by a .209 BABIP, but he's been a mess across the board. His strikeouts are up, he's hitting a ton of weak grounders, and he's got only two homers. The Astros are off to an excellent start, and you have to wonder how long of a leash Gattis will have if they can maintain the look of a contender. Domingo Santana lurks at Triple-A as a potential replacement.
Victor Martinez, UTIL, Detroit Tigers
Wait, so you're saying a guy who hit more homers than the previous two seasons combined at age 35, has logged a ton of innings at catcher, and had knee surgery in February isn't doing so hot? This is by a wide margin the least likely thing that has ever happened. Seriously though, if you drafted V-Mart, you had to know that things could easily play out this way. He's shown zero power and looks even slower than ever. There's nothing overly alarming in his peripherals otherwise, and the plate discipline is still there. It's entirely possible that Martinez will recover from this lousy start, but a bet on that seems too risky to justify the potential reward.
Danny Santana, 2B/SS, Minnesota Twins
As of this writing, Santana has 22 strikeouts and zero walks. His OPS stands at .575. He's stolen just one base. I tried to dissuade you from rolling the dice on Santana in February, pointing to his lackluster minor league numbers and an unsustainable .405 BABIP last year. His BABIP this year? .383, and he's still been awful. Santana is chasing more and making less contact, and nothing in his profile suggests any reason for optimism. It's early, of course, but this feels like a more accurate picture of what we can expect from the guy than what we saw in 2014. He'll probably still manage to steal 20 bags or so, but at what cost?!?! Every other category, that's what cost. Middle infield wasteland or not, you can almost certainly do better.
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