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Despite being a fantasy friendly franchise, the Atlanta Falcons have suffered through several disappointing NFL seasons in a row. The 2014 campaign ended up being the last they could endure with their long time coach Mike Smith and they ultimately decided to make some coaching changes. With Smith out, new Head Coach Dan Quinn and Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan should turn this team around quickly given the amount of talent they have on offense and their former successes.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Justin Hardy, RB Tevin Coleman, TE Jacob Tamme
No Longer on the Roster: WR Harry Douglas, RB Steven Jackson, RB Jacquizz Rodgers
Coaching Changes: HC Dan Quinn, OC Kyle Shanahan, DC Richard Smith
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Quarterback
If there’s been one constant you can rely on in Atlanta over the course of the last half dozen seasons or so it’s quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan is coming off of his fourth season in a row of over 4,000 passing yards and his fifth with over 25 touchdowns, the key takeaway is that Ryan is nothing but consistent. That consistency is what has established Ryan as a reliable mid-round fantasy quarterback. Last year alone Matty Ice ranked fifth in the NFL with 4,694 passing yards and finished in the top 10 in just about every other category. The point is, he’s definitely worth considering as your fantasy starter in any sized league.
This year’s rankings have him competing with Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton in the six-to-eight range. That’s a fair ranking given the offenses all three of those passers play in and I actually think you can justify putting them in any order. Ryan has the most versatile offensive weapons, Roethlisberger plays with the two best players of the bunch, and Cam Newton possesses the most upside out of the three QBs.
The argument for Ryan also extends into his safety. There’s a slim chance Matt Ryan is going to burn you even if you were take him as the sixth quarterback off the board. His aforementioned consistency combined with his weapons makes him pretty low-risk. Throw in the fact that the Falcons threw the ball the second most times in the NFL last year and it’s pretty clear that Ryan can run an efficient offense. Even if Shanahan's more run-oriented offense takes some opportunities away from Ryan, his increased efficiency and touchdown numbers should make up for that.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones is good. Like, really good. Jones is actually coming off of his best year statistically, racking up 1,593 yards on 104 receptions last season. Both of those numbers were good enough for the third best in the NFL among wide receivers. Jones was one of just four players to average over 100 receiving yards per game with only Odell Beckham Jr. ranking ahead of him in that category. I could rattle off a whole host of stats that tell you just how good Julio Jones has become but there will always be an argument against him due to his health concerns.
The other wide receivers ranked around Jones include the likes of Jordy Nelson, Odell Beckham, and Calvin Johnson. They represent the second tier of fantasy receivers, each of which has a case for and against him. If you were to limit the argument against Julio Jones to health related issues, all three of those other receivers have had similar concerns. Jordy Nelson had offseason hip surgery, Odell Beckham is dealing with hamstring issues on the opposite leg from last year, and Calvin Johnson is the oldest of the bunch coming off of a year riddled with injuries. So in that regard, they’re all basically on the same level. In short, it’s going to come down to your own personal preference, as any analysis you’ll read on these guys will be fairly similar. Personally, I rank them Nelson, Jones, Johnson, Beckham.
That leaves us with longtime Atlanta veteran Roddy White. Roddy has had down years in each of his last two seasons. Granted, his 2013 campaign was much worse than 2014. Roddy was pretty banged up in 2013 so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that his reception total, yardage, and touchdowns all went back up. The problem is, he hasn’t fully bounced back to the Roddy White of old because, well, he IS old. Prior to 2013, Roddy White had played in all 16 games in eight consecutive seasons. Now 33, it’s not all that surprising that his age is catching up to him in regard to health. For a guy who possesses legit WR2 upside, you’re going to be able to draft Roddy White at fantastic value as some rankers have him as low as outside of the top 30 at the position. He’s old, not dead.
Running Backs
The new coaching combo of defensive minded Dan Quinn and offensive guru Kyle Shanahan affects the ground game more than anything else. Quinn was the defensive coordinator for a Seattle team that won a Super Bowl predicated on establishing a superior rushing attack. Kyle Shanahan has shown he can run effective offenses with sub-par rosters in Houston, Washington and Cleveland. This should help whichever running back emerges as the starter in Atlanta.
Prior to the offseason, the expectation was that the Falcons would either run with what they had with Devonta Freeman and look to add another back via the draft. They then selected Tevin Coleman out of Indiana in the NFL Draft. People quickly forgot about Freeman and anointed Coleman the starter. Although this may seem like a streamlined upgrade, I don’t think it’s that simple.
Freeman is currently receiving the bulk of the first team reps in camp while Coleman is being utilized as a third-down back. This could be looked at in a variety of ways. The first is rather simple: Freeman is the incumbent back so it’s essentially his job to lose. He’ll have the first crack at the starting gig but if Coleman outplays him, it’s Coleman’s job. The second analysis is that the Falcons, who have rotated running backs over the last couple years, will continue to utilize a running-back-by-committee approach, thus hindering both of their respective fantasy values. And lastly, the Falcons could very well just be giving Freeman the first team reps in June because he’s the “veteran” of the group. With Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers gone, Freeman would have been the “next man up” had the team not drafted another rusher.
I think this situation will likely turn out to be a combination of all three. Freeman is getting the first team reps because Coleman is a rookie but the team will likely start out as somewhat of a committee until one of them beats out the other. It might be Freeman’s job to lose but I wouldn’t expect him to get a significantly larger bulk of the work than Coleman even if Freeman were announced as the starter. This situation is like a miniature version to what’s developed over the last two seasons in Tampa Bay between the incumbent Doug Martin and the shiny new toy Charles Sims.
The new regime in Atlanta doesn’t owe Freeman anything, as they didn’t draft him. The second Freeman struggles, even in the summer, they have every right to yank him for Coleman. The current depth chart might list Freeman ahead of Coleman but that isn’t exactly set in stone. Coleman is being drafted as a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside while Freeman is buried way outside the top 40 at the position. Rookies tend to go a little early for my taste so if I have to reach to secure Coleman, I’d rather pass. If he falls to me, great. I would, however, consider taking a lottery ticket pick on Freeman in the event he beats Coleman outright- which is still a possibility because of Freeman's better fit into Shanahan's zone running scheme.
Rookies and Tight Ends
We’ve already spoken about the big name rookie in Tevin Coleman but the Falcons also drafted wide receiver Justin Hardy in the fourth round. This is an interesting pick for Atlanta as they needed a replacement for Harry Douglas, a player who was viewed as the non-traditional handcuff to Julio Jones and Roddy White. I don’t expect Hardy to automatically match Douglas as a rookie but he’s an interesting name to monitor as the season progresses. You don’t need to draft him, just don’t ignore him if he starts putting up numbers when the season starts.
The Falcons signed tight end Jacob Tamme as the presumed starter but I wouldn’t read too much into this just yet. There are way too many tight ends who are more talented with greater upside than Tamme in Atlanta.
The Falcons are up there in fantasy relevance alongside teams like the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, and Indianapolis Colts. Their weapons might not be all be as flashy or high profile as those teams but that doesn’t make them any less valuable.
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