Toby Gerhart proved not to be the answer that the Jaguars were looking for at running back in 2014, and so with their second-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft they selected Alabama standout T.J. Yeldon.
He will be given every opportunity to establish himself as the feature back in Jacksonville, and could make an immediate fantasy impact. With only Gerhart, Denard Robinson and Bernard Pierce pushing him, I don’t see Yeldon having any trouble keeping the job.
Editor’s Note: be sure to also check out Ed's combined 2015 NFL Rookie Rankings piece for fantasy football, and all of RotoBaller's detailed NFL rookies analysis in one easy place.
Yeldon has the build of an NFL running back, standing 6’1” and weighing in at 226 lbs. His 4.52-speed is solid for his size, but his main weapon is his elusiveness. His innate ability to find holes in the defense and make tacklers miss is what drew the Jaguars to him, and his upside has afforded him the inside track at the starting job in 2015. Watch him make this defensive back look foolish:
Yeldon is also above average in short-yardage situations for several reasons. The first is his willingness to throw his body forward in an attempt to pick up the extra yard or two that his team needs, a skill that not all running backs can master. The second you saw in the gif above--his ability to shed would-be tacklers. Yeldon doesn't need to be in space to use that spin move--it works just fine when he needs to beat a linebacker for another yard. He also is capable in the passing game, which is a nice addition to any running back's profile. He's no Shane Vereen or C.J. Spiller, but he handles himself more than adequately, not unlike DeMarco Murray or Frank Gore.
There is significant evidence that Yeldon might not be worth your time in 2015, though. While elusive, he tends to run upright, exposing both his body and the ball to contact. This led to 10 fumbles in 576 collegiate carries, a ratio that will need to improve if he is to be an NFL starter. His power is lacking for a back of his size, but I expect him to bulk up some more over the next couple of years, which should allow him to improve in that regard. Yeldon also has some work to do in pass protection, and has very little time to do it in. Fortunately the problem is with his technique and not his size, meaning that it's something that can be fixed with time and practice. The Jaguars are still one of the worst teams in football, and Yeldon may not be on the field while they try to play catch up in the second half.
Right now Yeldon is being drafted around the fifth or sixth round (the 24th running back off the board), which in my opinion is about right. He’s going to be given the opportunity to lead the Jaguars in carries, and if he’s successful he could develop into a quality RB2 as soon as this year. As the Jaguars improve over the next couple of seasons, Yeldon should improve accordingly, making him a solid dynasty/keeper target.
In rookie drafts I'd take Yeldon towards the end of the first round. He's behind the big names like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah, but I would feel safe taking him ahead of the lower-upside wide receivers like Philip Dorsett and Devin Funchess.
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