Jon Gray (SP, COL) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in desperate situations or in deeper leagues with innings limits.

OWNED IN: 6% of Fleaflicker leagues

ANALYSIS: Allow me to preface this by saying that a certain degree of desperation is required to roll the dice on a Colorado pitcher. That said, there are plenty of fantasy teams that might be able to put off caring more about QBs than SPs for at least a couple more weeks if they throw caution to the wind. If the standings are not your friend, you need loud moves that can undo four months of mediocrity.

Betting on an arm that scouts universally adore is one such move. In a ridiculously small 10 IP sample, Jon Gray has no decisions and an ERA of 2.70 paired with a 4.06 xFIP. The slider has shown itself to be a strikeout pitch with a 38.1% chase rate and 24.1% SwStr%, and the heater averages over 95 mph. 8.1 K/9 so far are only okay while 3.60 BB/9 are simply bad, especially with a hard 75 pitch cap per outing. Still, picking up Gray is betting on upside - you'll be too late if you wait to see elite results.

The Rockies rushed their prized prospect to the High Minors with little Low Minors experience, and his K rate predictably tanked (13.50 K/9 in 24 High A innings, 8.66 in 114.1 Triple A innings before his call-up). He is a bad bet for wins on a terrible team with a worse bullpen, and Coors Field is every pitcher's nightmare come true. But he has upside, and these risks should not bother you if they are only the difference between a distant 5th place finish and an even more distant 8th.

Pitching in the NL West means regular turns in San Francisco, LA, and San Diego - pitcher's havens that could not differ more from Coors. His innings cap may actually help teams that burned through most of their innings already, allowing them to add a few GS with little chance of blowing the rest of their allotted frames. There are certainly compelling reasons to ignore him, but how good would it feel if a hot stretch enabled you to ask your league mates what QB stands for?