We’ve previously published an article series analyzing and grading all the NFL defenses, division by division. Now we’re going to look at the strength of schedules of each NFL team, division by division, to help you identify players with the best matchups vs. the league’s weakest defenses.
Today we provide AFC South strength of schedule analysis. For each team, we will identify players that we like and don’t like. You will see four categories: players to target, players to avoid, players to buy and players to sell. Let’s get to it.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to read more about fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) analysis, broken down by division and team, to prepare for your drafts and dominate your leagues.
AFC South – Strength of Schedule Breakdown
AFC South Opponents in 2015: AFC South, NFC South, AFC East
Tennessee Titans – Players to Target and Avoid
The Titans finally got a potential franchise quarterback when the team took Marcus Mariota second overall. Whether or not they put adequate weapons around Mariota, however, is still to be determined. Tennessee did land Harry Douglas, a career backup in Atlanta, via free agency and then added Dorial Green-Beckham through the draft. Both of the two comprise an upgrade to last season’s ailing receiving core, but neither of which will scare defenses this coming year.
Thankfully, the Titan enjoy a relatively easy schedule in 2015. The team starts off against the Buccaneers, Browns and Colts—none of which pose particularly strong defenses—and then goes on to face the Jaguars, Jets and Patriots during the fantasy playoffs.
Players to Reach For
Mariota has enough dual threat ability to make for an interesting prospect in fantasy this season. With a suspect running game and an even more suspect defense on the other side of the ball, a lot of pressure may be put on the young QB’s back—which could equate to solid fantasy production.
Players to Avoid
Bishop Sankey didn’t quite break out last season like some thought he might. Now factor in a few designed runs for Mariota each game, rookie David Cobb in the wings, and a weak defense, well you've got a recipe for Sankey to struggle again in 2015.
Players to Look to Buy Low
Green-Beckham has the physical tools to be a solid WR in fantasy and it’s likely only a matter of time before that potential comes to fruition. If the rookie wide-out struggles out of the gate, he could be a cheap buy that could pay dividends late in the season.
Players to Look to Sell High
If any of the Titans slew of average receivers—minus Green-Beckham—starts off hot, that WR may be worth trading. Even with Hakeem Nicks being cut, there are still many mouths to feed in this passing game and no true go-to guy yet. Things will likely average out by year’s end.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Players to Target and Avoid
Blake Bortles looked overwhelmed in the pocket at times last season, yet also showed flashes of a potential star quarterback. Another full off-season of work should help the young QB take another step forward and the addition of TJ Yeldon at RB should help take some pressure off as well. Julius Thomas, the team’s biggest free agent acquisition, could emerge into a great red-zone threat for Bortles, but beyond Thomas there isn’t much to fear from the Jaguars. All said and done, we’ll likely see an average offense emerge in Jacksonville this coming season.
Like the Titans, the Jaguars’ schedule isn’t terrifying. The team does start off against the Panthers, Dolphins and Patriots, however, which could cause Bortles and company to stumble a bit out of the gate. Week 14 and Week 15 matchups against the Colts and Falcons are promising, though, as Atlanta may very well have one of the worst defenses in the league in 2015.
Players to Reach For
Yeldon has the makeup of a work horse back and has assumed that role thus far in the pre-season. Regardless of the team around him, three-down backs are harder and harder to come by in today’s NFL, which makes Yeldon a potentially valuable pick.
Players to Avoid
Thomas may be Bortles best weapon, but at least some of the star TE’s past success with Denver has to be attributed to Peyton Manning and injuries are always a scare. Thomas remains a good option at TE this season, but not anywhere to close to the Graham's and Gronkowski's of the world.
Players to Look to Buy Low
If Yeldon starts off slow he could be worth grabbing. Even if the offense never clicks this season, pure volume should at least make a solid RB of Yeldon.
Players to Look to Sell High
Bortles showed flashes in 2014, but inconsistency plagued him as well. If the young QB gets off to a strong start in 2015, which may be difficult given the team’s early season schedule, he could be used as a trade chip to upgrade to a higher-tier QB.
Houston Texans – Players to Target and Avoid
The Texans defense should get even better this season if Jadaveon Clowney can return to full health and stay there for any period of time. Without a franchise QB, however, the offense may find itself struggling to improve on last season’s average output. The departure of Andre Johnson does bode well for Deandre Hopkins, who could see countless targets, and recent reports have Arian Foster returning by the end of September. Together the two stars comprise just about the only fantasy prospects on the team, though.
Houston doesn’t enjoy as nice a schedule as the Titans and Jaguars do. The team starts the season against the Chiefs and Panthers, then has a tilt against the Bengals in Week 10 before facing the Bills and Patriots in Week 13 and Week 14. Defenses like those don’t scream production for an already shaky Texans offense.
Players to Reach For
Foster, although somewhat brittle, remains one of the league’s best RBs and could very well be back by Week 3. His groin injury still has him going well later in drafts than he should, though, which makes him a great option to reach a bit for. If he falls far enough, he could be a steal.
Players to Avoid
Brian Hoyer looks to be the starting QB for the Texans heading into the season, and although he has a great weapon in Hopkins, Hoyer simply doesn’t offer enough fantasy appeal to be worth drafting.
Players to Look to Buy Low
If Hopkins and Hoyer can’t get on the same page early, Hopkins should become an excellent option to buy low on. Like Yeldon with Jaguars, sheer volume should keep the talented wide-out well within the mix of the top-10 by season’s end.
Players to Look to Sell High
If Alfred Blue or whoever else replaces Foster for the first couple of weeks comes out strong, they could garner more than they’re worth in a trade. It's not much, but it's something.
Indianapolis Colts – Players to Target and Avoid
An already explosive offense got even better this off-season with the additions of Johnson on the outside and Frank Gore between the tackles. Couple those two with TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief and a host of other offensive weapons, and we could see yet another statistically brilliant year from Andrew Luck. The defense may see some improvement, but isn’t going to scare anyone quite yet—all the better for Luck and company. Of all the teams in the division, the Colts offer the most fantasy appeal.
Opening games against the Bills and Jets would prove a bit daunting for some offenses, but the Colts should fare perfectly fine. The team faces the Broncos near mid-season before taking on the Steelers and Jaguars in Week 13 and Week 14. Any of those match-ups could be potential shoot-outs, making Luck and the rest of the Colts skill positions especially appealing from a SOS perspective.
Players to Reach For
Luck is easily the best QB Johnson has ever had, and reports from the pre-season have the veteran wide-out looking good thus far. He could be a solid WR3, maybe even a WR2.
Players to Avoid
The ageless Gore is likely more than happy to have left rebuilding San Francisco for the Colts, but it’s been a while since Indianapolis had an imposing running game. This offense still runs through Luck’s arm, and this could be the year that father time finally lands a blow on Gore. He’s an RB2 at best.
Players to Look to Buy Low
Hilton’s big play nature leaves the door open for a bust every now and then. If a string of those happen early on in the season, don’t hesitate to buy low on Luck’s most talented weapon.
Players to Look to Sell High
If you do happen to land Gore and the 32-year-old starts off strong, he becomes a valuable trade chip. Gore did finish last season strong, a wonder in its own right given his age, but has seen his numbers decline each of the last four seasons. RBs don’t survive long after turning 30 in today’s NFL.
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