Despite having put together 1,200 plate appearances’ worth of average offensive performance across his age 20 – 22 seasons, Manny Machado wasn’t shown a lot of love in fantasy circles before the 2015 campaign. Multiple knee injuries and what I’ve taken to referring to as the Trout Tax (the undeniable impact that Mike Trout’s ascension has had on how fantasy owners treat young players) led to Machado ranking just 14^th among third basemen in the preseason expert consensus at FantasyPros. That’s exactly where his ADP placed him at the position as well, between Ryan Zimmerman (gag) and Pablo Sandoval (projectile vomit).

In a normal year, Machado’s coming out party would have been a dominant storyline. Some guy named Bryce Harper stole a lot of his breakout thunder, but fantasy owners who bet on a step forward from the Orioles phenom this season were handsomely rewarded. Machado skipped the stairs and took the elevator to superstardom.

Perhaps the most important aspect of Machado’s development was that he stopped chasing pitches low and away. This led to better and more frequent contact with his walk rate more than doubling his previous career mark. That kind of improvement in plate discipline is uncommon even though, intuitively, plate discipline seems like more of a learned skill than, say, power or speed. Basically, the research suggests that most hitters’ tendencies are what they are once they get to the major league level.

However, Machado logged less than two seasons in the minors and skipped Triple-A entirely, and he did post a double-digit walk rate during his brief time on the farm. He also just turned 23, and that’s an age where rapid development can occur. So maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s an outlier. After all, there’s a reason he was a third overall pick and broke into the majors just after exiting his teen years.

When a player doubles his career home run total in a single season, the impulse is to check for any fluky elements. Machado’s 17.6 HR/FB% was a career best, but not too far afield from his 2014 mark of 15%. As you might have guessed, the bulk of the increase in homers came because he started elevating the ball more and hitting it harder. In 2013, Machado’s only other full season so far, he hit 14 homers and 51 doubles. This year, he hit 35 homers and 30 doubles. That’s a nice bit of symmetry, and it suggests that Machado’s power developed exactly as his supporters argued it would. Having recovered the lower body strength he lost due to those leg injuries seems like a sufficient explanation here, especially since his swing hasn’t really changed.

Healthy legs also make it easier to buy the unexpected stolen base total. Machado isn’t known for being a burner or anything, but he posted solid speed scores and swiped 21 bags in his minor league tenure. It might be a bit much to expect 20 steals again, but 10 – 15 seems reasonable enough. Machado was one of only five players to hit 30 homers and steal at least 10 bases this year (the others being Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, and Anthony Rizzo) so even a bit of regression here would leave him in elite company.

Given his pedigree and his success at such a young age, Machado figures to command a hefty price tag in drafts next season. That’s particularly true in Yahoo leagues, where he’s gained eligibility at shortstop. Odds are good that he’ll be worth the investment.

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