Back in 2010, the Phillies swept the Reds in the National League Division Series. As a fan of the former, I remember noting similarities between that Cincinnati team and the Phillies of 2007. Both teams ended 14-year playoff droughts on the strength of powerful lineups and found themselves bounced without a win. Each also owed its success in large part to homegrown players. It wasn't hard to imagine the Reds following a similar trajectory to the Phillies.

While the Reds did make the playoffs again in 2012 and 2013, they've ended up at the same place as the Phillies - the bottom of the pile - without the benefit of winning a World Series or pennant. The gap between the Reds and their division winner (the Cardinals) was 36 games, worst in baseball.  With the Pirates and Cubs looking like contenders for the long haul and the Cardinals continuing to dominant via devil magic, Cincy looks to have a tough road back to the postseason for the foreseeable future.

One encouraging sign? Even in arguably the greatest season for rookies ever, the Reds got more value from their rookie starting pitchers than any other team, and it wasn't particularly close:

The bulk of said value was generated by Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias. The Reds also have John Lamb, Brandon Finnegan, Michael Lorenzen, and prospect Robert Stephenson, all under 25. But we'll talk about them another time, perhaps. Right now, we're interested in the two who were most successful in 2015.

DeSclafini

DeSclafani came flying out of the gate last season, with a 1.04 ERA through his first four starts. While he'd posted a solid 15.1 K-BB%, the barely-there ERA was mostly a product of an equally microscopic .174 BABIP. The pendulum quickly swung back the other way. Over the next three months, DeSclafani's BABIP normalized and he also produced much worse strikeout and walk numbers, with just a 6.0 K-BB%.  But then he zigged again, and despite an inflated ERA, his K-BB% was over 20 percent.

Playing with splits like this can be a double-edged sword; any time you decrease your sample size, you're increasing the error bars. But that may not be the case if there's some sort of tangible, relevant event to point to for context, like a mechanical adjustment or change in approach. The smoking gun for DeSclafani's improvement was the increased use and velocity of his curveball. He'd struggled to find an effective third pitch, tinkering with a changeup that didn't produce results. His decision to swap changeups out for the curve - and to start throwing the curve harder - neatly coincides with the jump in whiff and walk rates.

It's possible that we're getting too granular here. Inconsistency from young pitchers isn't exactly a rare occurrence. It just feels like there's growth potential here. DeSclafani's minor league numbers weren't elite and he wasn't a high-profile prospect, but at every stop he showed an ability to limit walks and homers while posting respectable strikeout rates.

Iglesias

Like DeSclafani, Iglesias came to pro ball as a reliever and quickly transitioned to the rotation. The Cuban expat saw only brief time at the big-league level in the first half, sticking only after the Reds shipped out Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake at the trade deadline. In that time, however, he offered an enticing picture of potential, striking out over a batter per inning and posting a 19.8 K-BB%, second only to Noah Syndergaard among rookie pitchers. That's as a first-year player, having never been a starter before 2015 and having only logged six starts in the minors. In a word? Impressive.

Iglesias also does this while maintaining repeatable mechanics out of no less than three different arm slots. He doesn't quite go to the extremes that Cueto does in terms of altering his delivery during games, but the Reds seem less likely than any other team to ask Iglesias to alter his approach. "[I]t's something that has actually worked in my favor, because having three different angles of throwing and four different pitches increases the number of pitches I have. Actually, it's a benefit for me," Iglesias said in an interview with FanGraphs in September.

Who Ya Got?

Both pitchers have upside, but each has a critical area they'll need to focus on to take a leap forward. DeSclafani needs to continue using his curve effectively to set up his other offerings, and Iglesias has to keep improving his endurance. I expect each to return a profit for fantasy owners in 2016, but Iglesias has the higher ceiling and the higher likelihood of reaching it.

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