Drew Smyly (SP, TB) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Target ~160

CURRENT ADP: 183.7

ANALYSIS: Drew Smyly missed most of last season with shoulder problems, but when he did pitch, he stayed true to the breakout hype. While he had issues with the long ball, Smyly also posted a double-digit K/9 and limited walks enough to keep his ratios respectable (3.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). In fact, had he pitched enough innings to qualify, his 20.7 K-BB% would have ranked in the top 10 in baseball, ahead of David Price, Matt Harvey and Gerrit Cole.

Smyly has only thrown more than 100 innings once in his four major league seasons, but to be fair, he spent one of those years as a reliever and another as a swingman. But volume does matter, and as we saw last season, the Rays aren’t shy about pulling their starters early to avoid the times through the order penalty. They’re likely to be even more inclined to give Smyly the kid-gloves treatment considering his shoulder, which would limit his fantasy ceiling. He lands outside the top 40 SP in both Rotoballer's rankings and current ADP, though, so there’s still profit potential to be had.