2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part 2 (March)

9 years ago by Bill Dubiel

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1. 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

2. Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

Our starting pitching rankings was split into two parts. Today's edition will examine tiers 5-10, as determined by our staff's composite rankings (which differ a bit from my own evaluations where noted). Using the composite rankings to guide discussion helps to highlight personal preferences while also providing a more balanced view of the players' values. These rankings are for standard 5x5 leagues.

You should adjust these rankings to account for your league-- in shallower leagues or formats with daily transactions, upside pitchers are worth investing in since you can replace high-floor, low-ceiling players from the waiver wire. In deeper leagues or those with very infrequent waivers, high-floor pitchers are more important, as the wire will likely be barren and it'll be a challenge to effectively stream pitchers.

In weekly leagues, so long as they aren't too deep, it often makes sense to target a few elite pitchers to head your rotation and allow the two-start streamers to serve as depth; it makes little sense to carry high-floor pitchers whose value will often be outweighed by streamers. With these tips in mind, we move onto the players themselves.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier Six

Remember when people were arguing whether or not Justin Verlander should be the AL MVP? Those days are gone. I blame Kate Upton. However, Verlander returned from a lenghty triceps injury to surprise fantasy owners with a solid back end last season. Verlander used to throw 99 in the eight inning, but as he's lost his velocity he's been forced to get craftier, and I think he makes a nice comeback in 2016.

I love Carlos Rodon's upside, as the only thing that really killed him last year was his control, and that's something that only gets better with time. He was in the majors less than a year after being drafted, so it's clear the White Sox think of him as a stud. His lefty heat and nasty slider should yield high strikeout numbers, and if he can mature as a pitcher he could be a total steal in drafts.

I seem to like Collin McHugh a bit more than my colleagues, and I'm quite alright with that. Unlike the previously mentioned Rodon, I think McHugh's upside is limited. However, his floor is particularly high, which is why I'm putting my faith in him. He'll keep his ERA below 4.00, strike out around 180 batters, and probably amass 12-14 wins on a very good Astros team. McHugh won't be an ace in 2016, but he should be a very solid SP3/SP4.

Tier Seven

I have to assume Julio Teheran is going to bounce back, only because there is nowhere to go but up. The Braves default ace was destroyed by lefties in 2015, as 18 of the 27 homers he allowed came off the bat of lefties, who also hit .300 (!) over the course of the season. Hopefully Teheran will focus on improving those numbers, and if he does he could evolve back into the SP3 he was drafted as in 2015.

Andrew Cashner is another low-ceiling, high-floor guy. He stayed healthy last year, which allowed him to get his strikeout totals back up. Unfortunately, Cashner seemed to have the worst luck. While none of his peripherals jump off the page, he certainly should not have finished at 6-16, and I expect his record to be much closer or above .500 this year. He also allowed a .337 BABIP, and that is all but guaranteed to regress to the mean.

Tier Eight

I'm excited to see what Aaron Nola can do with a full season. The highly-touted rookie was impressive in his 77.2 innings, posting a 6-2 record with 68 strikeouts and a more-than-respectable 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. With a 90-91 MPH fastball, Nola doesn't blow anyone away, which limits his upside. However, if he can improve his control I think he'll be able to maintain that ERA and WHIP. The Phillies won't do much winning this year, but Nola should give them a chance every time he goes out there.

Kevin Gausman mixed the good and the bad in his 100 innings last season. The 90 strikeouts were very nice, but the 15 homers allowed are incredibly troublesome. I have to think that his HR/9 rate will be much closer to 1.0 than 1.5, and if that's the case there is significant upside here. Playing in Camden Yards doesn't help matters, but with the strikeout ability that Gausman brings to the table I'm definitely taking a flier in 2016.

Tier Nine

Anthony Desclafani, what are you doing down here? I like the young righty's potential in the top half of the Reds' rotation, and I think he'll take another step forward in 2016. His ERA and WHIP were inflated by a disastrous second half last year, but he flashed his potential in the first half with a 3.65 ERA. He won't rack up the strikeouts and I don't see any way he breaks 12 wins, but when you're this far down the draft you're looking for potential, and there's plenty of it in Desclafani.

Trevor Bauer is maddening. He had 17 starts of 6+ innings pitched and two or fewer runs, but he also had 10 starts allowing five runs or more. I'm ranking with the belief (hope?) that Bauer can show a little more positive consistency in 2016. As a former first-round pick, the potential is theoretically there for Bauer, but he'll need to take a big step forward with his control if he's going to become a valid fantasy option.

Tier Ten

Speaking of highly-touted prospects, Jerad Eickhoff should break camp as a member of the Phillies starting rotation. Between his significant strikeout potential (8.6 K/9 during his brief stint in the majors last year) and his consistently low ERA and WHIP history, there is plenty to like about Eickhoff. He does still need some fine-tuning, as he has had trouble with the long ball in the past, but he could be a major fantasy asset down the stretch.

Chris Heston threw a no-hitter last year, remember that? No you didn't, you liar. The reason you might not is because outside of a brief hot streak, Heston was largely unimpressive in 2015. I'm avoiding him for the most part this year in the draft, but keep him on your watch-list in case he gets hot once again during the warmer months.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

Ranking	Tier	Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Harris	Jeff	Bill
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	2	Max Scherzer	2	2	2	2	2	3	4
3	2	Chris Sale	4	3	3	3	3	5	2
4	2	Jake Arrieta	3	4	4	4	12	2	3
5	2	Zack Greinke	6	5	8	7	5	8	5
6	2	David Price	8	6	6	6	4	10	9
7	2	Jacob deGrom	13	7	5	5	10	6	6
8	3	Madison Bumgarner	5	9	9	10	8	11	13
9	3	Jose Fernandez	11	8	18	8	7	4	14
10	3	Dallas Keuchel	7	12	11	9	16	17	7
11	3	Gerrit Cole	17	11	7	15	11	13	12
12	3	Noah Syndergaard	10	13	10	16	15	12	10
13	3	Matt Harvey	16	10	15	17	6	7	17
14	3	Stephen Strasburg	14	19	12	11	9	9	18
15	3	Corey Kluber	9	14	14	13	17	16	16
16	3	Felix Hernandez	12	17	17	14	13	18	8
17	3	Chris Archer	18	15	13	18	14	14	11
18	3	Carlos Carrasco	15	16	16	12	21	15	15
19	4	Jon Lester	19	22	19	20	24	19	20
20	4	Sonny Gray	22	20	24	23	18	26	19
21	4	Johnny Cueto	21	23	20	27	19	20	23
22	4	Cole Hamels	25	21	21	19	23	24	21
23	4	Adam Wainwright	20	18	25	22	26	25	25
24	4	Carlos Martinez	29	24	22	25	28	21	24
25	4	Danny Salazar	23	26	23	21	31	22	28
26	4	Tyson Ross	24	25	30	29	22	23	30
27	4	Marcus Stroman	38	27	26	24	20	31	31
28	4	Francisco Liriano	30	32	28	28	27	27	36
29	5	Yu Darvish	26	33	31	26	36	49	22
30	5	Masahiro Tanaka	35	28	35	30	37	32	29
31	5	Jose Quintana	33	35	29	35	29	46	34
32	5	Jake Odorizzi	27	38	33	44	33	28	39
33	5	Michael Wacha	56	30	32	32	30	34	32
34	5	Jordan Zimmermann	45	31	37	34	25	53	27
35	5	Lance McCullers	39	50	27	36	42	29	40
36	5	Luis Severino	46	29	44	37	39	44	26
37	5	Garrett Richards	47	39	38	40	32	36	37
38	5	Scott Kazmir	61	34	36	39	38	37	33
39	5	Michael Pineda	48	36	43	31	46	40	35
40	5	Jeff Samardzija	31	40	46	47	34	35	49
41	5	Patrick Corbin	44	45	34	33	48	39	42
42	6	Steven Matz	42	42	47	41	45	38	44
43	6	Drew Smyly	36	42	57	43	40	33	60
44	6	Justin Verlander	50	49	51	45	49	30	46
45	6	Raisel Iglesias	41	51	41	46	44	48	51
46	6	John Lackey	34	48	56	48	50	50	55
47	6	Shelby Miller	65	37	54	52	35	61	38
48	6	Taijuan Walker	37	67	45	50	41	51	54
49	6	Yordano Ventura	32	47	53	53	56	58	48
50	6	Gio Gonzalez	63	41	50	51	52	47	45
51	6	Clay Buchholz	43	54	42	49	58	56	56
52	6	James Shields	54	44	58	58	53	41	52
53	6	Hisashi Iwakuma	40	60	39	55	54	60	58
54	6	Hyun-Jin Ryu	51	47	48	56	55	66	64
55	6	Joe Ross	89	43	40	38	51	57	57
56	6	Carlos Rodon	67	57	59	54	43	45	47
57	6	Collin McHugh	68	52	52	57	57	54	50
58	6	Wei-Yin Chen	28	55	73	60	60	52	63
59	6	Alex Cobb	62	46	49	67	59	71	62
60	6	Kyle Hendricks	57	61	55	59	62	42	41
61	6	Jaime Garcia	64	53	64	42	73	67	43
62	7	Eduardo Rodriguez	53	56	61	61	69	59	61
63	7	Julio Teheran	74	58	71	66	47	63	66
64	7	Andrew Cashner	52	59	72	68	65	72	59
65	7	Jason Hammel	59	70	63	74	83	73	53
66	7	Ian Kennedy	60	75	70	63	66	65	77
67	7	Nathan Eovaldi	69	74	60	62	76	70	68
68	8	Kenta Maeda	55	63	100	64	79	55	-
69	8	Aaron Nola	66	62	69	76	72	75	72
70	8	Anibal Sanchez	76	68	67	71	63	74	74
71	8	Andrew Heaney	84	69	65	70	80	68	65
72	8	Mike Fiers	58	79	74	104	61	43	84
73	8	Robbie Ray	73	65	62	69	88	76	71
74	8	Jimmy Nelson	78	66	75	72	75	77	73
75	8	Marco Estrada	75	64	78	78	74	78	76
76	8	Kevin Gausman	87	76	77	88	71	62	70
77	8	Alex Wood	72	83	68	84	68	79	79
78	9	Anthony DeSclafani	83	82	66	73	97	80	69
79	9	Mike Leake	88	78	86	86	64	82	85
80	9	Erasmo Ramirez	71	95	76	65	114	92	83
81	9	Trevor Bauer	99	72	84	85	106	90	67
82	9	Derek Holland	80	71	94	103	-	-	89
83	9	J.A. Happ	-	92	82	80	87	86	102
84	9	Taylor Jungmann	114	88	87	89	-	88	75
85	9	Nate Karns	-	81	79	93	115	93	82
86	9	Henry Owens	93	94	90	75	119	91	80
87	9	Wade Miley	77	98	91	109	95	69	103
88	9	Yovani Gallardo	95	89	101	97	67	115	87
89	9	Edinson Volquez	86	84	97	91	96	111	90
90	9	Jake Peavy	116	97	83	95	99	87	81
91	9	James Paxton	91	103	96	96	90	83	99
92	10	Drew Hutchison	-	111	81	79	-	94	107
93	10	Jerad Eickhoff	85	100	93	77	118	95	95
94	10	Jesse Hahn	110	77	117	81	78	112	88
95	10	Chris Heston	123	86	-	83	91	-	94
96	10	Mat Latos	118	96	80	87	102	96	92
97	10	Ubaldo Jimenez	94	99	92	107	98	-	93
98	10	Tyler Duffey	81	80	107	90	120	109	96
99	10	Ervin Santana	111	87	98	82	112	110	86

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2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part 2 (March)

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier Six

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

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