Jimmy Nelson (SP, MIL) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Stream in standard mixed leagues, start as a back of the rotation arm in anything deeper.

CURRENT ADP: 274.8

ANALYSIS: Nelson's middling 11-13 record and 4.11 ERA don't exactly scream out "Draft me!," but there is solid upside here nonetheless. As a pitcher in a hitter's park, the first thing you should look for is a good GB%, and Nelson's was an excellent 50.6% last season.

Nelson also maintained that ground ball rate while throwing his sinker less often. This is good, because the sinker was terrible: .310/.375/.428 triple slash line against with a below average 5.3% whiff rate. It was largely replaced by a knucklecurve, which remains a work in progress but offers strikeout upside if Nelson can master it.

Nelson racks up a few Ks even without the knucklecurve, as his slider is nothing short of deadly. Opposing batters swung at it and missed a whopping 20.2% of the time last year, while chasing it outside of the strike zone 42% of the time. His 93.3 mph fastball also boasts an above average 9.3% whiff rate. One more weapon (like a knucklecurve) and Nelson will really be something.

Nelson's biggest problem in 2015 was left handed bats, who torched him to the tune of .298/.381/.495 last year. That's a problem, but his performance against righties (.198/.275/.293) is mixed league worthy right now. He should be streamed in standard leagues against teams with few left handed sticks. In deeper formats, his strikeout potential and regular slot in the rotation warrant a pick towards the back of your rotation. Give him an extra nudge in formats that don't count victories, as the Brewers project to be pretty bad. Nelson may have a boring name with boring stats, but his potential is anything but.