It's never too early to start preparing for your fantasy football drafts, and Rotoballer is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
Our second article comes from featured writers Kane Green (@NovaKaneSports) and Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Kane defends up-and-comer Blake Bortles in the young and upcoming Jaguars offense, while Ben is on the side of perennial top-five quarterback Drew Brees.
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Blake Bortles vs. Drew Brees
Passing Yards
Kane: When looking for value with your quarterback pick in 2016, look no further than Blake Bortles. Bortles may have thrown for less yards than Brees last season (4,428 to 4,870), but we all know that yards are not where the money is at. So where is the proverbial dinero? Touchdowns, of course, and Bortles threw three more than Brees last season (35 to 32) in only his second full season. The sky’s the limit for Bortles in this offense, and he can be had between picks 70-75, rather than picks 50-55.
Ben: There’s nothing more valuable than knowing exactly what you’ll get with a high pick, and Brees has been exactly that. Brees has eight straight seasons of at least 4,300 yards, and 33 total touchdowns. Over the past 10 seasons, Brees has finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in each season until last year, when he finished sixth. He is being drafted as the sixth quarterback this season, and if he plays all 16 games he will likely finish higher than that.
Rushing Ability
Kane: Not only can Bortles pass, but he can also run. He ran for 310 yards and two scores during his sophomore campaign, with 419 during his rookie season for a total of 729 rushing yards in his first two seasons. To put that into some perspective, during his 16-year career Brees has rushed for 704 yards total. He only ran for 14 and a score last season. For those of us who have been beaten in a close matchup because our quarterback took a fourth quarter sack, elusiveness under center can be extremely valuable. Bortles averaged 19.4 yards rushing per game in 2015, which is good for nearly two extra points per week in most leagues. Brees may pass for more yards, but quarterbacks can rack up fantasy points quicker with the ground game. Bortles clearly has the categorical advantage.
Ben: Even without the run game, Brees is more than capable of putting up big points. Last season he had four games with 340+ passing yards with three passing scores. Two of those games came in weeks 15 & 16, which are the semi-finals and finals in most leagues. Bortles was able to do this only once last season. Brees missed week three last season, but from week four on only one quarterback was able to outscore Brees and that was Cam Newton. Brees plays half his games in a dome, so the conditions for him in those games are perfect for airing it out. He's done it in the past, and he'll do it again at age 38 this season.
Running Backs Threatening Passing Volume
Kane: Why pass, when your team can run? The New Orleans Saints can lean more heavily on their running game with reliable running back Mark Ingram at the helm. Before he went down last season with a shoulder injury, Ingram averaged 4.6 yards per rush, which placed him tied for 12th in the league. The Saints are more than capable of getting ahead early and staying ahead with the run to keep a porous Saints defense off the field. The Jaguars were able to get Chris Ivory in the offseason, but hit between the tackles running style has only allowed him to stay healthy enough for 16 games once during his six-year career. His yards per career last season sat at 4.3, 20th in the league. T.J. Yeldon looked decent as a rookie, but only averaged 4.1 YPC, ranking 26th in the league. If the Jags get down, their running backs may not be able heavily involved, which will put Bortles in the position that he thrives in, throwing at a high volume.
Ben: Granted, the Saints rushing attack should be better than the Jags’ next season. However, this added dimension to the offense can help Brees. Ingram is capable of rushing and taking chunks of yards, so defenses cannot sit back and wait on Brees to throw. By keeping defenders in the box to guard Ingram, this opens up lanes for Brees to pick apart defenses. Ingram is also more than capable of catching passes; last season he caught a career high 50 passes on 60 targets for 405 yards, and only one recordable drop. Ingram can dominate games, but if he keeps doing this through the air then it can only benefit Brees. Ingram also, has only played 16 games once in his career. The main backup, Tim Hightower, came in last season and was fed the rock. His average yards per carry last year? 3.9. If anything happens to Ingram, the Saints will be forced to air the ball out, playing to Brees' strengths. C.J. Spiller is a great pass catching running back when on the field, but cannot be a workhorse back.
Team Defense and Wide Receivers
Kane: The Jaguars proved last season that when they get down in games, they are not afraid to air the ball out. With an unimpressive rushing attack and defense, deficits are more likely, which will lead to Bortles to take matters onto his gun-slinging arm, once again. In 2015, when the Jaguars were trailing, Bortles’ passer rating went up to 92.7 (from 74.0 when winning, and 79.2 when tied), and he threw 29 of his 35 touchdowns. So, when this near-inevitably happens, who does Bortles throw to but two of the best young wide receivers in the league; Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, who combined for 2,430 yards, and 24 TDs last season. Robinson is a top-15 pick in drafts this season after hauling 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs. Hurns was able to grab 64 passes for 1,031 yards and 10 scores. Both of these receivers are only in their second seasons in the league. The Bortles-Robinson-Hurns combo is set to wreak havoc again this season. Brees’ top two targets, Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, combined for only 2,122 yards and 12 scores
Ben: The New Orleans Saints defense allowed the most points in the entire league last season. Even with Brees playing catch-up most games, he still had a completion percentage nearly 10 points higher than Bortles (68.3% vs. 58.6%). While Brees doesn’t have the same talent as Bortles at the wide receiver position, he does have a plethora of reliable options. Brees threw the way of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead a combined 230 times, which led to a microscopic three recorded drops on those targets. The Saints also upgraded at tight end this offseason, going from Benjamin Watson to Coby Fleener. Fleener had 84 targets from Andrew Luck, and drop only three passes. Of those 60 targets Ingram had, he only had one recorded drop. With reliable options around him, it doesn’t matter who Brees throws to, as long as they can catch and gain yardage.
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