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The Golden Four: Kevin Durant and the Warriors

In case you didn't get the news that shook the NBA world to its foundation, Kevin Durant signed a two-year, $54 million dollar contract with the 2015-2016 Western Conference Champion Golden State Warriors. This places KD in the NBA's best offense, under coach Steve Kerr, and alongside an existing trio of superstars in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.

This means that the NBA's 12th leading scorer Thompson (22.1 points per game), the leagues leading scorer Curry (30.1 points per game), and Green who was second in the NBA in triple-doubles with 13--who all were just on the team that went 73-9 by scoring 114.9 points per game--will now be teaming up with the guy who was third in the NBA in scoring last year with 28.2 points per contest and is a former MVP and scoring champion in his own right.

While Durant's move to Golden State has triggered a lot of emotional and heated reactions, it is also important to focus on the Fantasy Basketball implications of this blockbuster move. How will the Warriors look different without key players like Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, and Festus Ezeli? How will three elite scorers be affected by playing with each other? Will the other Warrior role players be completely marginalized by the star power? Let's dive in and analyze how Kevin Durant's new contract affects Fantasy Basketball for the Golden State Warriors.

 

Kevin Durant's Effect on the Other Golden State Stars

First and foremost, the amount of points that need to be accounted for in 48 minutes is a little overwhelming. As well as leading the NBA in scoring last season the Warriors were first in team assists per game with 28.9.  All this came very efficiently, as they were only third in field goal attempts per contest at 87.3 on average. Last year, Kevin Durant's Thunder also filled up the stat sheet as they scored 110.2 points per game which was second in the league. He led the team in FGA per game at 19.2 and only really shared the scoring load with Russell Westbrook who scored 23.5 points per game in 18.1 shot attempts. Durant accounted for approximately 22% of his team's shot attempts last season and 26% of its points. Last year in Oakland, Curry made up 23% of his team's shot attempts and scored 26.2% of their points while Thompson shot 19.8% of the team's field goals and scored 19.2% of the points.

They might be the "Splash Brothers" but the two superstars on this roster are Durant and Curry. While it is very reasonable for Fantasy Basketball Managers to expect Steph and KD to be the NBA's highest scoring duo and both mostly maintain high scoring averages, it is unrealistic to expect Klay Thompson to finish 12th in scoring again. There are only so many minutes in a game and shot attempts to go around. If one player's scoring is going to suffer noticeably due to Durant signing with Golden State, it will be Klay Thompson.

Draymond Green and Stephen Curry averaged 7.4 and 6.7 assists and combined to produce about 49% of their team's assists each game. With Durant around, Green won't be asked to score as often as he was last season (though he'll still get his share of transition points and wide open looks), but he now has a much greater opportunity for assists. He is a great passer to begin with, now imagine him with Klay Thompson on the wing and two scoring champions on the floor calling for the ball. Every pass he makes is statistically likely to result in a made shot. As for Curry, this means an increase in his assist volume too. When he is running the point, his options for passing are going to look a whole lot nicer -- instead of those wide-open bricks that result from his passes to Harrison Barnes, he's going to be hitting Kevin Durant. It is as simple as that. He is the point guard running a team with yet another fantastic scoring threat that isn't him. That is good news for Fantasy Basketball Managers looking to get more passing figures out of Curry.

Durant was also able to average a career high 5.0 assists per game last season while paired with Russell Westbrook. Durant's assists figures are a little less of a sure thing. On one hand the increased offensive pace and pass-happy company he will be keeping on the floor might cause his assists numbers to rise in ratio with the Warrior's offense. On the other hand, Durant's assists totals may drop solely because he is going to be receiving the ball from Curry who may see his assists sky rocket. The most likely scenario is that his assists drop. Curry and Green will be the ones responsible for dropping dimes, while Durant will focus on scoring when on offense since he is no longer on a team that is so dependent on his 50% share of every possession like the Thunder were.

 

The Rest of the Warriors Roster

The good news is, not a whole lot of other statistics should be too greatly affected. Several Warriors from last season are skipping town like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, and Harrison Barnes. Those three players combined for 24.1 points, 17.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.9 blocks in 68.3 minutes per game. Of course, Durant will be eating the minutes that Barnes played and then some, and grabbing rebounds Barnes would've otherwise had. The Warriors have also signed big men Zaza Pachulia and David West who last year combined for 15.7 points, 13.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and just one block in 44.4 minutes per game between the pair of 6-11 and 6-9 bigs. That makes up for a lot of rebounding that was lost, but leaves a lot to be desired in paint defense where Bogut has been a dominating force his entire 11-year career.

Major role players Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala, who combined for 13.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 46.1 minutes per game, will also be sticking around. They unfortunately also combine for 62.46 years old and were each selected in the 2004 NBA Draft. The veterans may be getting a little bit too far up there in age to count on for consistent fantasy production, as they take it easy in the regular season to save themselves for key roles in the Warriors playoff run. The team has also lost more minor players like Brandon Rush and Leandro Barbosa while Ian Clark juggles offers from several interested clubs. The other two players that have a slight chance of returning to the Bay are Marreese Speights and Anderson Varejao who together only took up 20.1 minutes in their combined 94 games, but still produced some nice averages in those precious few minutes with 5.6 rebounds and 0.7 blocks which is on pace to combine for 20 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes. However, it will be a challenge for the Warriors to resign either.

Even though the Warriors are also letting go of former Tarheel star James Michael McAdoo, the hue roster shakeup could be a huge opportunity for some of the Warriors youngest talent. Kevon Looney is a 6-9, 220 lbs. forward who was drafted by Golden State in 2015 out of UCLA. Last season due to injury he was able to play in just five games and averaged just 1.8 points and 2.0 rebounds in 4.2 minutes per game. In his only season as a Bruin he averaged 11.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game and also shot 41.5% from beyond the arc. With Ezeli, Bogut, Varejao, and Barnes on the way out, this could be a great opportunity for Looney to find a bigger role. The Warriors also acquired three rookies this off-season: Center Damion Jones from Vanderbilt whom they drafted 30th overall, second rounder Patrick McCaw out of UNLV, and undrafted free agent Robert Carter Jr. out of Maryland.

Damian Jones is a 6-10, 248 lbs. stud who performed nicely at Vandy for three years. He averaged 1.7 blocks and 6.4 rebounds in his college career and is a good candidate to take a nice defensive role from the get-go. Patrick McCaw is a big guard at 6-6 who was actually drafted 43rd by the Milwaukee Bucks, but was purchased by Golden State for $2.4 million. In his sophomore season as a Runnin Rebel he averaged 14.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game while shooting 68 for 186 from three-point range for a percentage of 36.6%. Most impressively, he was a defensive menace on the perimeter with 2.5 steals per game. Robert Carter Jr. didn't do much "Warrior Like" scoring in college for Georgia Tech and Maryland; for his career he averaged just 11.2 points per game and shot a mediocre 29.7% from long distance. The 6-9, 240 lbs. forward did however average 7.2 rebounds per game for his career and averaged 1.0 and 1.1 blocks per game as a Yellow Jacket before reaching 1.3 defensive swats per contest in his only year as a Terrapin.

The Warriors were clearly looking to replace size, rebounding, and defense with their moves in this rookie class. Jones can be a key defensive contributor from day one of his rookie season, as Pachulia can be horrendous in that area. McCaw also looks to have some safety in his roster spot given that the Warriors were willing to buy his contract rights for $2.4 million. He looks to be an obvious low key role player who can offer long range shooting and perimeter defense in limited minutes. Carter Jr. has an outside chance to make the team. After all, it's a competitive roster. If he does make the cut, he will also serve as a limited role player with the objective of rebounding and blocking shots, not much else given his poor shooting. Much of whether these players will get a good chance to produce and whether Carter makes the team will depend on whether Golden State is successful in resigning guys like Speights or Varejao.

There have even been juicy rumors that all-time NBA leader in made three-pointers, Ray Allen, would like to make a comeback with the Warriors at age 41. As ridiculous or unlikely as that sounds, it warrants some giddy excitement considering Allen's career 3PT percentage of 45.2%.  While Reggie Miller might disagree, signing Allen would give the Warriors a legitimate claim to having the three greatest three point shooters of all time.

So why go through all of these roster shifts just for Fantasy Basketball? We analyze every move because the Warriors added the 2014 MVP to a lineup that already scores at an unprecedented rate. That signing catalyzed key role players to sign with other teams and leave many statistical categories empty. While KD may eat up some of the rebounds that are up for grabs and block a few of the shots that may have otherwise been blocked by Bogut (it wouldn't surprise me if he was watching LeBron James in the Finals and came away eager to put up his own series of highlight chase-down swats), there is plenty of room for a new crop of category specific role players to emerge. Pachulia and West may be also grabbing rebounds, but they are lousy as far as post-defense goes. While blocked shots aren't necessarily up for grabs, the Warriors will be sitting ducks on defense when Zaza is on the floor which means defensive specialists like Damion Jones could be getting a lot of minutes.

With the reduction in total role players and the addition of a superstar, the statistics may be less evenly spread among the roster. Curry, Green, Iguodala and Livingston with Durant's 1.2 career steals per game means the Warrior perimeter defense will be even more stifling than it was. Durant and Green's combined length at forward may increase the amount of team steals by a noticeable margin. It may take time for the main reserve rebounders and shot blockers to emerge, considering many of them lack NBA experience, but the wait will be worth it for Fantasy Basketball Managers in seeking the more specific categories out.

 

The Greatest Show on Hardwood

In conclusion: This team will be a great show. Think Kurt Warner's "Greatest Show on Turf", and then add a scoring champion to the mix. Though it seems impossible, their offense will only move at a faster pace and will score more points with greater efficiency. Kevin Durant will still be a top-tier scoring threat with some possible hits to his assists, but we can live with that. Steph Curry will be even freer from occupied defenses and will continue to shoot and score in high volume with a good chance that he dishes out more assists to his All-NBA teammates on the wing.

Klay Thompson is the most likely to suffer from the Warriors big plans. There is a high likelihood that he scores less with KD getting so many shots, and that detracts a lot from his value. He produced just 3.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 0.8 steals in 33.3 minutes last season and his playing time could take a hit too to accommodate Durant's 35.8 minutes from last year. Thompson will still score in this historic offense, just probably not at the top-15 level that he did when it was just the "Splash Brothers" running the show. Draymond Green is very safe in his Fantasy Basketball value. Even if he can muster double-digit scoring even just every once and a while; he remains an elite asset due to his production in rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists. His much improved 3PT% of 38.8% means he won't be a fish out of water when trying to fit into this offense.

Those are the four big ones. The new version of the Warriors needs time to adjust to playing with such dominant talent. The good news is that we identified who should be better, who should be just as good, who should be worse, where the statistical gaps are, and who has the potential opportunity to fill them. Kevin Durant shocked the world when he announced his new team and his decision is sure to shake up the NBA and fantasy basketball.  If this new superteam clicks like it is capable of doing, their production could be unprecedented -- there's only so many shots to go around, sure, but does it really matter if you're making even more of the shots you take?

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