Before we dive too much into the outfield prospect rankings, I just want to give up a quick heads up to the readers on how the remaining prospect rankings lists will go. Because there are so many pitching and outfield prospects, each article will be split up by league and each list will contain 20 names. I know this seems like a lot, but you will see that these positions require that many prospects to be named because otherwise I will hardly get into any sleepers. Even as is, there are not too many deep sleepers on this list like you might find on some of the other dynasty rankings.
But important to note is that I do not know of all dynasty league formats. Some are customized and have varying numbers of keepers. I try to keep my ownership recommendations somewhat broad, but if you have any questions about a specific league, feel free to reach out and ask me on Twitter @Redsguy1869. I will be happy to answer any of your questions!
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National League Outfield Dynasty Rankings
A quick note on how these articles are formatted. They are going to be sorted by who I think is the best option for dynasty owners based on a combination of estimated time of arrival and potential upside. I will include their stats from their current level, their age, their ETA and lastly a talent grade. The talent grade will be an all-encompassing grade designed to inform dynasty owners of how big of a fantasy impact a player will realistically have. It will take into account how long it takes to reach the big leagues and will be on a scale of 1-10.
1. David Dahl (COL, AAA)
Stats: 47 PA, .512/.574/1.024, 5 HR, 1 SB, 10.6% K rate, 12.8% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: September 2016/Early 2017
It should not be too terribly surprising to see the talented Rockies’ outfielder at the top of this list. With one of the best power/speed combination in baseball, David Dahl is given the added bonus of calling Coors Field his future home. Given all of those factors, dynasty owners have to be excited about his future.
Dahl has not hit for extraordinary power in his Minor League career, but scouts know that it is there. Most believe that without Coors Field he would still be able to hit 20+ dingers per season, but Coors Field turns that into 25+ or even as high as 30 if he continues at this current pace. He is one of the fastest guy in the minors and should be able to steal 20 or more bases per season. And though he has had his struggles with plate discipline in the past, he has shown improvements this season as evidenced by his 11.7% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate at Double-A this season. And though that K% is high, owners should not be too concerned. Dahl has a quick enough bat and an ability to spray line drives all over the field, leading many to believe he will hit .280+ in the bigs in spite of possible strikeout problems.
Dahl will likely not see any time this season beyond a cup of coffee in September, but he figures to be their starting center fielder in 2017. With Coors Field being his home, Dahl seems like a virtual lock to be a 20/20 player in the majors with his upside being 30/30. He is an absolutely electric player and warrants owning in all dynasty leagues regardless of depth.
Talent grade: 10
2. Austin Meadows (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 48 PA, .239/.271/.522, 2 HR, 2 SB, 14.6% K rate, 4.2% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017
If you are putting Austin Meadows and David Dahl in a vacuum, Meadows would probably come out as the better prospect. But with the combination of Dahl’s home ballpark and Meadows unclear path to playing time, Meadows had to come in second. Still, you couldn’t go wrong with either of these two toolsy outfielders as both figure to be elite talents in the majors.
Meadows is one of the most talented hitters not just among NL outfield prospects, but among all Minor Leaguers. The sweet-swinging lefty has been viewed by many evaluators to be almost a lock to bat .285+ with a high chance of batting over .300 in the big leagues. He also possesses well above-average plate discipline and has not struck out over 18.5% of the time at a single level since his rookie league debut in 2013 while consistently posting up solid walk rates. Though he has not hit for the power many scouts have envisioned in him, Meadows still figures to be at least a 15 home run guy with the upside being 20-30 home runs in a full season. The 6’3”, 220 pound outfielder works with a strong frame and many evaluators think it will just take a slight adjustment in his swing to get him to hit for more pop. The speed is also well-above average with some viewing him as capable of 20-25 swipes per year.
If Meadows played for just about any other team in the majors, he would be viewed as a guy destined for a starting spot by next season. With Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco all locked in that Pittsburgh outfield and none even remotely close to free agency, a trade will almost certainly have to take place for Meadows to have any sort of value. Whether that means he gets dealt or one of the Pirates’ starters gets dealt is an interesting question, but something will have to change. Make no mistake though, Meadows possesses one of the more tantalizing skill sets in the minors and must be owned in most dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 9.5
3. Manuel Margot (SD, AAA)
Stats: 389 PA, .297/.345/.415, 4 HR, 24 SB, 9.5% K rate, 6.2% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: August 2016
After the Red Sox dealt Anderson Espinoza to the Padres, all it did was invoke memories of the Craig Kimbrel deal in which Red Sox fans saw several of their top prospects dealt for a glorified reliever (granted, a very talented reliever, but a reliever nonetheless). One of those prospects was the very talented Manny Margot. And if you just look at the scouting reports, you will see he certainly is a serious talent.
Margot has everything that fantasy owners want to see in a future center fielder. He has well above-average speed capable of covering plenty of ground defensively and stealing 25+ bases. But just wait, it gets even better. Margot combines advanced discipline at the plate (walk rate consistently around 5-7% and strikes out consistently in low double-digits and upper single-digits) with a very quick swing and an ability to consistently drive the ball. That rock-solid approach at the plate leads many to believe that he should have no problem hitting for a high average in the majors. Though he does possess pop and could reach 10 homers in a season, Margot is unlikely to go too far beyond that just because of the Petco Park effect (sort of the inverse effect of Coors Field).
When you look at the total package of Margot, you see that you have one of the most talented outfield prospects in baseball. His speed-first style plays well in Petco Park where he should be able to rack up plenty of extra-base hits in those gaps. Add in the steals and the ability to hit for a high batting average and you have a guy who should be owned in all dynasty leagues. Plus it is important to add that once Melvin Upton and/or Matt Kemp is dealt away, Margot will likely be promoted to the majors. He is one of the few players on this list to have value in 2016 redraft leagues.
Talent grade: 9
4. Raimel Tapia (COL, AA)
Stats: 381 PA, .330/.372/.449, 6 HR, 16 SB, 10.8% K rate, 5.8% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017
Ah Coors Field. You help the fantasy value of so many. Raimel Tapia, a guy not even in the Rockies’ top five prospects is a top ten NL outfielder on this list just because of how much his value is increased by calling Colorado his home. Though scouts have never been in love with him like they have with some of the other guys on this list, he has always put together outstanding numbers with a batting average above .300 in every season except his 2011 rookie league campaign and has consistently flashed well above-average speed (78 stolen bases since the start of 2014). He could be a major sleeper.
Scouts generally agree that Tapia does not have any one elite tool, but rather has an above-average all-around game. Most agree that he is an easy 15-20 stolen bases type guy who should be able to mash 10-15 home runs (not factoring in the Coors effect). When you consider that Colorado is his home, he could be a 20/20 threat. If you had to pick one area that is slightly better than any other, it would probably be his ability to reach base. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone and he has a very quick bat. Though not as refined of a hitter as Dahl, Tapia still should be expected to bat .270-.290 in the majors.
Tapia will likely finish 2016 in Double-A, but a late promotion to Triple-A should not be completely ruled out. It is highly unlikely that he reaches the big leagues in September, but he could force his way into the starting lineup by June of next season, possibly earlier if the Rockies sell off both Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez between now and the start of next season. With his upside, he warrants owning in most keeper leagues.
Talent grade: 8.5
5. Nick Williams (PHI, AAA)
Stats: 358 PA, .292/.326/.467, 8 HR, 5 SB, 23.2% K rate, 5.0% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: September 2016 / Early 2017
One of many uber-prospects acquired in the Cole Hamels deal with the Texas Rangers last season, Nick Williams has one of the most tantalizing power/speed combinations among prospects. Last season, the lefty hit 17 home runs and swiped 13 bags. Though he has not replicated that same success in 2016, Williams should still be considered one of the higher upside guys on this list.
From a defensive standpoint, Williams is an average to slightly above-average corner outfielder. But from an offensive standpoint, scouts are very excited about his future. He has some serious bat speed which leads many scouts to see him as a future 20 homer type guy who should also hit for a .275+ average. And though he is not the fleetest of foot, he is quick on the bases and could start to steal more bases as he continues to mature. Scouts view him as one of the more likely guys in the minors to be a 20/20 threat. His plate discipline lags behind the rest of his skills and some scouts see that as the highest risk part of his game, but the general consensus is that he has improved since the start of his professional career and that he should continue to improve over time.
Though a bit of a high risk just because of his lack of plate discipline, Williams easily has the upside most dynasty owners look for in a top prospect. Already at Triple-A, he will probably get a look in September with a chance to reach the majors as a starting outfielder in 2017. With his proximity to the majors, he should be owned in all leagues.
Talent grade: 8.5
6. Jesse Winker (CIN, AAA)
Stats: 251 PA, .283/.378/.368, 2 HR, 0 SB, 12.7% K rate, 13.9% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: August/September 2016
The Reds are prepared to deal away right fielder Jay Bruce before next week’s trade deadline which could potentially open up the door for Reds’ top outfield prospect Jesse Winker to reach the big leagues. Winker has dealt with a wrist injury this season and has not flashed much power this season, but in 59 games at Triple-A he has still shown promise. He is slashing .283/.378/.368 with two home runs, a 13.9% walk rate and 12.7% strikeout rate through 251 plate appearances. Those may not be outstanding numbers, but scouts believe he will do more in the majors.
Evaluators almost universally agree that there are few prospects in baseball with better plate discipline than Winker. He can be counted on to walk as much if not more than he strikes out which helps to give him one of the higher floors among prospects. He also has one of the quicker bats and has shown an ability to drive the ball to all fields. And though he has not hit for much pop to this point in the 2016 season, he did hit 13 home runs at Double-A last season and 18 the season prior. And most scouts believe that with a combination of continued maturity and a shift to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, Winker could become a 20 home run type guy.
Winker is not the toolsiest player on this list, but he has an incredibly high floor and is very close to the majors. If he reaches his full potential, his combination of above-average power, elite plate discipline and bat quickness could give him value near Reds first baseman Joey Votto. At his worst, he still reaches the majors and hits for a respectable average, but tops out at 10 home runs or less per season. My guess: he falls somewhere in between those two and bats around .295 with 15-20 home runs per season while batting second in the Reds’ lineup. And with his proximity to reaching the big leagues, he should definitely be owned in most leagues.
Talent grade: 8
7. Brett Phillips (MIL, AA)
Stats: 338 PA, .232/.326/.427, 11 HR, 6 SB, 32.5% K rate, 11.5% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: 2017
The top prospect in the Brewers’ return for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers in the deal with the Astros, Phillips has always shown one of the more promising power/speed combinations throughout his professional career. But he has hit a bit of a rough patch in 2016. Though he has 11 home runs and six stolen bases, he is slashing only .232/.326/.427 with an 11.5% walk rate and 32.5% strikeout rate in 338 plate appearances. But don’t worry, most scouts agree that Phillips will be just fine.
Phillips has one of the more exciting profiles on this list and could have a lot to offer fantasy owners should he reach his potential. He has above-average pop and above-average speed, leading many to believe that he could be a 15/15, possibly even a 20/20 player in the majors. Evaluators believe that Phillips should hit for a high enough average and reach base enough to stay at the top of the order, though he needs to improve in spraying the ball to all fields as he right now is more of a pull hitter.
Dynasty owners should expect to see Phillips patrolling center field in Milwaukee as early as 2017. He will need to turn his season around in the second-half to help prove to the Brew Crew that he does not need any more time in the minors, however, and it is possible that the team opts to keep him in Triple-A for most of 2017. But with his power/speed upside, owners should be willing to wait and should have him stashed in most keeper leagues.
Talent grade: 8
8. Victor Robles (WAS, A+)
Stats: 86 PA, .233/.329/.356, 2 HR, 9 SB, 14.0% K rate, 5.8% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2018
If you want a guy who is going to be a leadoff hitting center fielder, look no further than Victor Robles. This speedy 19-year-old prospect has done nothing but steal bases and hit with a high average throughout his professional career. Though his High-A numbers are rather pedestrian, Robles did hit extremely well at A ball with a .305/.405/.459 slash, five home runs, 19 steals, a 6.3% BB rate and a promisingly low 13.3% strikeout rate.
Scouts believe that there are few outfielders with higher upside than Robles. Though they acknowledge he has not hit for much pop to this point, evaluators believe that he can eventually develop 10-15 home run power. Even if he doesn’t develop the pop, Robles is expected to hit at least .270 in the majors with the potential to hit .300 at the top of the lineup. He has enough plate discipline to keep his strikeout rates low and consistently makes contact, but don’t expect him to take many walks simply because pitchers are liable to attack him rather than pitch around him. Of course he has no tool more promising than his speed. He has 30+ stolen base speed and is going to be a guy consistently among the top base stealers in the league.
Already at High-A, Robles has the chance to reach the majors relatively quickly for someone as young as he is. Give his struggles so far, he will not reach Double-A in 2016, but a second half resurgence could force the Nationals to start him at AA in 2017 with the chance of him finishing the season at Triple-A. With his speed and high ceiling, Robles should be a guy owned in most deeper keeper leagues even if he is still two or more years away from the majors.
Talent grade: 7.5
9. Hunter Renfroe (SD, AAA)
Stats: 386 PA, .334/.360/.609, 22 HR, 3 SB, 18.9% K rate, 3.9% BB rate
Age: 24
ETA: August/September 2016
Hunter Renfroe has put together his best Minor League season by far in Triple-A. His .334 average is a single-season high and his total of 22 home runs is just five shy of his single-season high. And though his plate discipline numbers leave a lot to be desired (3.9% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate), the former 2013 13th overall pick still looks to be a solid bet to produce in the majors.
Power, power and more power with Hunter Renfroe. In terms of pure, raw power, there is no outfield prospect in the National League who has more of it than Renfroe. Unfortunately for him, he will be playing in pitcher-friendly Petco Park which diminishes his value a bit. Scouts view him as an average runner, but don’t expect that speed to translate to anything on the base paths. The biggest downside to Renfroe is his plate discipline where, like many home run hitters, he strikes out way too much. His swing-and-miss tendencies make it unlikely that he will bat over .300 in the majors, but he makes enough solid contact to be able to hit at least .265 in the big leagues.
Though obviously home run hitters are not as happy in Petco Park as they may be in Coors Field, Renfroe has more than enough power to hit 20+ bombs in San Diego. If both Melvin Upton and Matt Kemp are dealt at the deadline, owners should expect to see both Manny Margot and Renfroe reach the majors and should expect to see both of them having serious impacts. Combine his power-hitting ability with his proximity to the majors and you’ve got a guy who should already be owned in most dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 7.5
10. Eloy Jimenez (CHC, A)
Stats: 346 PA, .331/.370/.520, 10 HR, 6 SB, 22.5% K rate, 5.8% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2019
Talk about crushing the minors, look at what Eloy Jimenez has done at A ball this season. After slugging 10 home runs in his past two seasons combined (414 PA), he has already matched that total in roughly 70 fewer PA. And though he is striking out at a slightly concerning 22.5% rate, there is still quite a lot to like about the Dominican outfielder.
Scouts love everything that Jimenez has to offer. He is one of the larger outfielders on this list, standing at 6’4”, 205 pounds and scouts believe he will develop a lot of power from his size. Evaluators see him as a guy who could potentially be a 25-35 home run threat at the majors. He has slightly above-average speed and could potentially swipe 15 bags, but owners should realistically expect somewhere between five and 10. If there is any concern with Jimenez, it is his swing which can get long and pull-happy at times, putting a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. But scouts believe the 19-year-old prospect will start to cut down on the punch outs as he continues to mature.
Jimenez is going to be a major force in the majors, but it will probably take a few years of development. The corner outfielder needs to tone down his aggressiveness and will probably not reach Double-A until later next season at the earliest. But if dynasty owners show patience, they could be rewarded by a perennial All-Star, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup.
Talent grade: 7.5
11. Alex Verdugo (LAD, AA)
Stats: 341 PA, .299/.361/.464, 11 HR, 2 SB, 13.2% K rate, 8.2% BB rate
Age: 20
ETA: 2017
Verdugo has never been viewed as one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, but all he has ever done has hit and prove people wrong. The 2014 62nd overall pick has flashed speed in the past (14 stolen bases last year), he has shown power (11 bombs this season) and he has never shown himself to be susceptible to strikeouts. Not to mention that in his professional career, he has never hit below .295 in a season and owns a .315 career average in the minors.
Scouts have backed up the numbers by what they have seen first hand. Though he does not have any electric tool, Verdugo does everything well. He has above-average power, above-average speed and is well above-average defensively. Evaluators also believe that with his combination of a quick bat and patience at the plate, Verdugo should have no problem batting over .270 at the highest level.
At his ceiling, Verdugo will hit over .300 and be a 20/20 player. Even if he does not reach that ceiling, owners can expect him to hit at least 15 home runs and should swipe double-digit bags. Verdugo stands a very good chance of debuting next season if he keeps hitting at this rate and could be one of the youngest players in the majors at the start of next season (he won’t be 21 until May 15). Verdugo is well worth owning in most dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 7
12. Roman Quinn (PHI, AA)
Stats: 231 PA, .288/.361/.420, 3 HR, 25 SB, 22.9% K rate, 8.7% BB rate
Age: 23
ETA: 2017
The second of four Phillies’ outfielders on this list, Roman Quinn is just a hop, skip and a jump away from reaching the big leagues. The 2012 66th overall pick has already reached Double-A in what has been a relatively quick rise considering the fact that he was just a slap hitting speedster out of high school.
But Quinn has more to love than just his speed. Though he was more of a slap hitter out of high school, Quinn has since refined his approach and now is capable of spraying line drives all over the field. His plate discipline is average and helps solidify him as a future leadoff hitter, though don’t count on him to ever hit above .290 in the majors. Unsurprisingly, owners should never count on him to blast more than five bombs in a season as most evaluators believe that the future centerfielder as a guy with very little pop.
If you want to own a guy like Billy Hamilton if Billy Hamilton could hit, then Roman Quinn is the guy for you. The fastest guy on this list and easily one of the quickest guys in all of baseball, Quinn has already reached Double-A and could be in the majors as early as the start of next season. He would’ve been much higher on this list, but his history of injuries has seen him surpass 100 games played in a season only once (2014) in his professional career. Plus with all of his injuries being centered around the legs, owners have to worry that his speed could lessen if he keeps getting hurt. Even with the injury history, owners in 16+ team leagues should look into taking the risk and stashing this young speedster as he could be poised to have a major impact in dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 7
13. Eddy Julio Martinez (CHC, A)
Stats: 355 PA, .263/.341/.397, 7 HR, 6 SB, 21.4% K rate, 9.9% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
You know you have a talented player when one of the first comparisons thrown out is Andruw Jones. And that is exactly who 21-year-old Eddy Martinez has been compared to by scouts. Before Martinez signed with the Cubs, MLB.com wrote ‘Think a young Andruw Jones.’ That is some high praise.
And Martinez has done everything in his power to warrant such lofty comps. Like Jones, Martinez stands at 6’1” and has flashed a very promising power/speed combination. Though most scouts believe Martinez will not hit for as much power as Jones, they do believe that he can grow more into his frame and develop 15-20 home run power. Even if he does not develop that type of power, Martinez has a quick enough bat and has shown himself to consistently drive the ball to all fields leading many evaluators to believe he will bat at least .270 in the majors. But where scouts believe Martinez will excel beyond Jones is with regards to stolen base production. Evaluators view him as a 25+ steal guy who covers enough ground to stay in center field.
Though he is 21 years old, Martinez is still several years away from the majors. He is only in A ball right now and probably needs at least two more years in the minors before he will be close to reaching the big leagues. But he has a lot of upside and should be a big time producer at the top of the Cubs’ lineup once he reaches the big leagues. He is worth a look in many deep dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 7
14. Harold Ramirez (PIT, AA)
Stats: 367 PA, .307/.363/.406, 2 HR, 7 SB, 15.3% K rate, 5.7% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: Late 2017/Early 2018
Ramirez has spent several years in the minors and dealt with his fair share of injuries, but he is finally healthy and is putting together a very solid season in Double-A. Of course, who can forget his 2015 High-A campaign when he slashed .337/.399/.458 with four home runs, 22 stolen bases, a 7.3% walk are and 14.0% strikeout rate.
Standing at only 5’10” and 220 pounds, the Colombian native is one of the more undersized outfielders available, but as scouts all agree he is not short on talent. He lacks the power of a lot of guys on this list, but he makes up for it with line drives to the gaps and with a very quick bat. Most agree that he is a guy who can eventually develop 10-15 home run pop, but that is definitely his peak. Evaluators agree that he should hit for a high average thanks in large part to that bat speed and to his advanced approach to the plate (has never struck out more than 16.8% of the time and usually walks around 5-7% of the time). His speed is well above-average and should be enough to swipe 15-20 bags, but he will never be an elite base stealer.
Ramirez is not the toolsiest player on this list, but he should be a very solid all-around player when he reaches the majors. He is probably only a year or two away from being ready to have an impact in the big leagues, but just the same as Austin Meadows, he will require a trade to free up space. And unlike Meadows, don’t expect the Pirates to deal away one of their starters to plug him in the lineup. Instead, don’t be surprised if he is dealt away if the Pirates look to make a trade. Ramirez figures to be a guy worth owning in most of the deeper dynasty leagues once he is traded.
Talent grade: 6.5
15. Mickey Moniak (PHI, R)
Stats: 60 PA, .309/.350/.400, 1 HR, 1 SB, 18.3% K rate, 5.0% BB rate
Age: 18
ETA: 2019
Now we get to the two 2015 draftees in back-to-back slots. And just as in the draft, Moniak is the first of the 2015 draft class to appear on this list. The first overall pick has only reached rookie league and is just coming out of high school, but his ceiling is high, as is his floor. And if you listen to scouts, you will hear why he is so coveted.
Moniak is a pure hitter. He makes consistent contact and has proven that he can spray line drives to all fields. And though scouts see him as more of a gap-to-gap type of guy, they believe that there is plenty of room for him to add 15+ home run pop to his 6’2” frame. He also has well above-average speed which leads scouts to believe that he will not only remain in center field, but should also be able to swipe 25+ bags per season. It awaits to be seen whether or not he will maintain a patient approach in the minors, but most believe that he should have no problem adjusting to professional pitching.
Fantasy owners will obviously have to wait a while to reap the rewards of Moniak, but the payoff could be huge. Despite coming out of high school which often comes with plenty of risk, Moniak was viewed as one of the lowest risk players in the draft and should be viewed just the same by dynasty owners. He has the potential to be leading off for the Phillies in just a few seasons and warrants owning in a lot of the deeper dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 6.5
16. Corey Ray (MIL, A+)
Stats: 63 PA, .267/.270/.283, 0 HR, 1 SB, 15.9% K rate, 1.6% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2018
Entering the draft, there were few outfielders with higher upside than Corey Ray and that upside showed in the stats he put up in his junior season. The former Louisville Cardinal slashed .310/.388/.545 with 15 home runs and 44 stolen bases in 268 at-bats. Those numbers were enough to make the Milwaukee Brewers take him with the fifth overall pick in the draft and place him straight in High-A out of the draft.
Standing at only 5’11”, 185 pounds, Ray is not the largest outfielder, but that doesn’t stop him from hitting for double-digit pop. Scouts believe that those 15 home runs he hit at Louisville were no mirage and that he should be able to translate that to MLB success. Scouts love his quick bat and knowledge of the strike zone and view him as a solid lock to hit over .270 in the majors. Of course, it is important not to forget his most promising attribute: his speed. He has 25+ stolen base speed and could possibly reach 40 in the majors. The biggest concern with Ray is his plate discipline. The former Cardinal has never shown a tremendous amount of patience and could be susceptible to strikeouts at the higher level which certainly makes him a higher risk player than others.
Ray has the potential to make quick work of the Minor Leagues. Already at High-A, he could very possibly start next season at Double-A if he performs well enough this year. Dynasty owners should view Ray as a high risk/high reward guy who could be in the majors very soon. He should be worth owning in most deeper dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 6
17. Billy McKinney (CHC, AA)
Stats: 338 PA, .260/.364/.333, 1 HR, 2 SB, 19.8% K rate, 13.6% BB rate
Age: 21
ETA: 2017
Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are loaded at all positions. Their third outfielder to make this list, McKinney has never shown himself to be an explosive player in the minors, but rather he has shown himself to be a reliable guy, always posting high batting averages, limiting his strikeout rates and walking more than the average batter.
And that is about what scouts have always said about McKinney. He neither possesses blazing speed nor does he have explosive power. Evaluators think that he can develop low double-digit dinger power, but they don’t think he will ever be a great base stealer. Instead, he should be a prototypical number two hitter. He has demonstrated patience at the plate and has shown himself to have line drive, gap-to-gap pop. He should be a solid bet to bat over .270 in the majors.
If you are looking for a high-upside, power/speed outfielder, you should probably look elsewhere. But if you want a reliable guy likely to have an impact in the next two seasons, Billy McKinney is your guy. Despite a currently loaded Chicago outfield (that will likely only get more loaded next season when Kyle Schwarber returns), McKinney figures to reach the majors at some point next season. Whether that is as a member of the Cubs or if he is a member of another team after being traded is another story entirely.
Talent grade: 6
18. Cornelius Randolph (PHI, A)
Stats: 92 PA, .272/.359/.358, 1 HR, 4 SB, 23.9% K rate, 8.7% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2019
Another outfielder on this list years away from the bigs but oozing with upside, Cornelius Randolph has always amazed scouts with his talent. The first high school outfielder drafted by the Phillies in two years, Randolph is not very big, but he can really swing the bat. Scouts believe that though he has not really turned his raw tools into on-paper production, he will come around after a few more years of development.
The best tool for Randolph is his bat. The future left fielder of the Phillies is not very fast and will probably never reach double-digit totals in stolen bases, but has one of the sweetest swings of any lefty hitters in the minors. Evaluators see him as a potential 20 homer threat in the majors who could also hit .275-.300 in the majors. On top of that, his advanced approach gives him a relatively high floor.
If everything goes right for the 2015 tenth overall pick, he could be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Phillies. At his worst, he probably still reaches the majors but won’t hit for enough pop to bat in the meat of that lineup and instead probably bats toward the bottom of the order. But rest assured, he looks to be a solid bet to make it to the majors. Owners in deeper keeper leagues with plenty of patience should consider stashing him.
Talent grade: 6
19. Trent Clark (MIL, A)
Stats: 118 PA, .227/.359/.412, 2 HR, 1 SB, 25.4% K rate, 16.9% BB rate
Age: 19
ETA: 2019
Owners looking to stash this guy are going all in for a high upside outfielder. 19-year-old Trent Clark is rated as the fifth best Brewers’ prospect according to MLB.com and third by Baseball America, though he still is only in A Ball. After being drafted 15th overall in last season’s draft, Clark has yet to turn his raw talent into actual statistical production, but scouts view him as a future four tool center fielder with the potential to have a major impact in the majors.
Defensively there are some questions about Clark, but most scouts agree that Clark has one of the highest upside bats out there. Beyond just his ability to hit for a solid average (which most scouts agree is his best tool), the sweet-swinging lefty also has a lot of raw power which leads scouts to believe he should be able to hit double-digit home run totals on a yearly basis. He has plenty of speed and scouts believe that he will turn that into more steals as he matures, but he will probably never be a 25 stolen base type of guy. The most promising aspect of his game is his well above-average plate discipline which helps to give him a relatively high floor for MLB success.
Clark is a medium risk/high reward type players. There is little question that he will reach the majors and play either center or left field and his plate discipline should allow him to bat first or second in any lineup, but he still needs to prove that he can translate his raw power and speed. And with him being at least three years away from the majors, there are other outfielders who would be better to target in the meantime. But Clark should most definitely be owned in the larger dynasty leagues.
Talent grade: 5
20. Dylan Cozens (PHI, AA)
Stats: 395 PA, .281/.367/.577, 24 HR, 16 SB, 29.1% K rate, 12.2% BB rate
Age: 22
ETA: September 2016/Early 2017
You would be very hard pressed to find a more surprising Minor League breakout season than Dylan Cozens. The Phillies’ slugging outfielder hit eight home runs in all of last season and 16 in 132 games at A ball in 2014, and now just past the halfway point of the 2016 season he already has surpassed 20 bombs. He went from a player who may not reach the majors to a prospect who could possibly debut as early as September when rosters expand.
Cozens is a mixed bag, but there is still a lot to like from a scouting perspective. Physically imposing, the 6’6”, 235 pound outfielder is surprisingly quick on the base paths for his size and obviously comes with a lot of power. Though he is not going to steal 20 bases in the majors like he has in the minors, Cozens could potentially swipe 10 bags. Certainly though with Cozens, the big draw is the power. He has plenty of raw power and should be able to blast 20+ dingers per season on a regular basis. His swing tends to get long at times and he has some swing and miss in his games, but evaluators generally like his plate discipline and give him at least a shot at lowering his strikeout rate.
Cozens does not have near the upside of most of the outfielders on this list, but he has provided actual production that you can see. He is also relatively close to the majors. The one thing that has to be somewhat concerning is the Phillies depth of outfielders which could force the slugger to a bench role as their other talented Minor Leaguers reach the bigs. At this point, owners can expect him to produce soon, but they would really like to see him traded to help his long term value.
Talent grade: 4.5
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