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2016 Player vs. Player - Ameer Abdullah vs. Frank Gore

Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our next article comes from staff writers Joe Sorensen and Pierre Camus (@pfunk00). They evaluate two mid-round running back options at very different places in their careers. Joe promotes second-year back Ameer Abdullah, whereas Pierre advocates for veteran Frank Gore.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET) - Joe Sorensen

Running backs get very tricky to select the further into the draft you go. At the top of the draft, you could easily come out of the first four rounds with two quality running backs, even if you do not draft one in the first round. But, after that, where do you look? Do you look for an older, proven veteran that has ran for over 1,000 yards for 8 of the 11 years his has been in the league? Do you go for the second-year runner that was expected to break out last year, but failed to reach expectations?
 
The answer to this question is easier than you may think; Ameer Abdullah is the stronger fantasy prospect this season than Frank Gore. Some of you may argue that this is absurd since Abdullah did close to nothing last season. And to those, you are almost correct. The Lions runner finished his rookie season with 597 rushing yards, 183 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. He split carries with Joique Bell and passing down responsibilities with Theo Riddick. Okay, so that makeup is definitely unimpressive from a fantasy point of view, especially since he finished as the 43th-best running back.
 
Looking forward, two key players from last season are gone and this makes Adbullah’s outlook extremely positive. The first piece is Bell. After stealing 90 carries and 22 receptions last season, Bell has been released by the team and most of the carries should be given to the sophomore runner. Riddick should not be an issue in the running game since he played in 470 snaps and only ran the ball 43 times. Additionally, another 149 passing targets will be up for grab since the retirement of All-Pro WR Calvin Johnson. While it is already known that new WR Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin will absorb some of it, there should be extras that could boost Abdullah’s status in the passing game.
 
On the other side, the aging Gore shows no true upside in the team’s offense. While he did manage to finish his 2015 campaign as the 12th-best fantasy running back, it is wild to believe that he could repeat that this season. Remember, the Colts has no choice but to run Gore 260 times, the fourth-most attempts of his career, with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. But, now, the big-money QB Andrew Luck returns under center and it should be expected for the team to return to his shoulders.
 
Last season, Gore did not have much competition for snaps. Ahmad Bradshaw, Dan Herron, and Josh Robinson only stole a combined 62 rushing attempts from Gore. And, even though Gore had 34 receptions last season, there is reason to believe that undrafted free-agent RB Josh Ferguson (168 receptions and eight receiving TDs at University of Illinois) could steal passing-down duties from Gore. This threat could also steal rushing carries away from one of the oldest runners in the league. This will certainly hurt him in both standard and PPR leagues as the season goes on.
Overall, Abdullah appears to have more upside moving into the 2015 season, in real-life and in fantasy. There is certainly the potential to see Abdullah have a much improved sophomore season and break the 1,400 total yard marker. Gore, on the other hand, would have a successful season if he can stay healthy all season, considering he has not missed a game since 2011.

 

Frank Gore (RB, IND) - Pierre Camus

There's a reason 33 year-old running backs don't get much love. In fact, 28 is considered old by RB standards and anything after 30 is practically ancient. The statistics prove this to be true: the average 33 year-old running back scores half as many points as a 27 year-old on a per-game basis. Frank Gore's best years are behind him, not ahead. Ameer Abdullah, a mere 23 entering the 2016 season, should be on the upswing and will surely increase his point totals from last year's disappointing rookie campaign. All of this is indisputable.

That said, I still believe Gore has a good chance to outscore Abdullah straight up in fantasy points this season. Why? Gore isn't a typical running back. People have been trying to write him off for years as being too old, yet he keeps producing. There's a reason he enters the season as the clear starting back for the Colts, a team that many favor to win their division and were even a trendy Super Bowl pick a year ago. Gore actually improved on his numbers from his last season in San Francisco and has not shown any true signs of decline.

Gore finishing as the 12th ranked fantasy RB actually does mark a slightly disappointing year for a player who has held RB1 status for a decade. 2015 marked the first time in his career that he didn't reach 1,000 rushing yards in a season in which he played at least 12 games. 967 is pretty close, however, and when you add in 267 receiving yards and seven total TD, he was far from a bust. If there is something to point to for Gore detractors, it would be the 3.7 Y/A. This isn't a sign of an aging player so much as an unfortunate offensive situation. The entire Colts offense was in shambles as Andrew Luck missed over half the season, Andre Johnson never adjusted to his role in the offense, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired in the middle of the year. With the passing threat minimized, Gore saw more stacked boxes and the Colts were playing from behind more often. Those situations should be remedied this season. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski is promising to bring an attacking style of play calling that will focus on winning match-ups. Gore will not be run into the ground for the sake of trying to establish a running game, nor will he be ignored as the Colts go pass-happy.

In all likelihood, Gore will post another 1,200-1,500 combined yards with 8-10 TD. When you see a player available in the 7th round that is almost assured of that kind of production, you shouldn't just consider it, you should pounce! Abdullah may approach those statistics by his third or fourth year in the league, but Detroit's running offense, or lack thereof, doesn't inspire much hope. Detroit finished dead last with 83.4 rushing yards per game, which might be overlooked if they hadn't also finished 28th the year before. The Lions offensive line still ranks as one of the worst in the league and their off-season moves consisted of losing their best wide receiver to retirement and ditching Abdullah's backups to give him less rest? That doesn't strike me as a recipe for a breakout season for someone who looked lost as a rookie.

The Inconvenient Truth is that Gore is still a reliable running back in the NFL and fantasy leagues alike. Sometimes we confuse young and unproven as being synonymous with "upside." As running back situations get murkier each season and finding a reliable back becomes more difficult, why wouldn't you go with a sure thing? Zero RB theorists should jump at the chance to make Gore their first pick. If you're in a dynasty league, by all means take Abdullah first. He had a tremendous college career and has potential to be the next Frank Gore. For the 2016 season, I prefer the real thing.

 

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