NBA players sometimes get smoking hot and then it seems they can't miss a shot. But then again, at other times they "stink up the place" and can't hit an open jumper. And even though an NBA team GM knows that his player's value is at an unreal high at that moment, or that a player slumping on another team can be acquired for one with lower upside, it's not as if he can trade players in an out on a weekly basis. Fortunately for us, we fantasy owners can! And in active leagues with lots of trades, timing can be crucial in acquiring that missing link that will put your team over the edge and into that championship winning groove.
Below are my Week 9 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high candidates. We will talk about a player who's on fire but is probable to cool down, what are the reasons for him not keeping up this pace the rest of the way and who to target in return if his owners decide to sell him high. We will also discuss a player who isn't in an actual fantasy slump to the trained eye, but an untrained one could be willing to sell him at a discount and that is what owners on the prowl should be exploiting.
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Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 9
Are You for Real, Jeff Teague?
Jeff Teague left Atlanta in a trade this offseason to join the Indiana Pacers and it worked wonders for him in real life and fantasy. The change away from the shadows of Paul Millsap and Al Horford, along with no Dennis Schroder to eat into his minutes worked wonders for Teague. He improved his averages in every standard fantasy category, except for FG% and 3PM which are down by 0.9% and half a three-pointer per game. I believe his owners will forgive him for that.
Here is a guy who has been taken at the sixth round in drafts on average but is returning top 50, maybe even top 40 value this season thanks to his averages of 15.9 PTS with 0.9 3PM on 43.0% from the field and 84.3% from the line along with 7.3 AST, 4.1 REB, 1.8 STL, 0.5 BLK and 2.6 TO in 32 minutes per game. This is beating his records in season averages in assists, rebounds and steals. And whereas his percentages, points and assists could be on par with what to expect from Teague the rest of the way, the defensive stats are not. Don't get me wrong, he is going to get those stats, but just not at the level he was getting them so far this season.
Teague is even hotter at the moment. In his last seven, he has averaged 19.6 PTS with 1.0 3PM on 46.7 FG% and 84.6 FG%, 9.1 AST, 5.6 REB, 1.3 STL, 0.4 BLK and just 2.4 TO in 34 minutes. He topped it all of with a 31 point game on Dec. 22. Those stats have him ranked at around the top 20 in that period. But his burst out just happened to coincide with the injury to his backcourt partner Monta Ellis. Teague is getting four more minutes per game in those seven games and his usage percentage, assist percentage and rebounding percentage have all spiked. Although Monta is probable to miss at least a few more weeks of action, with his return it is to be expected for all of those to go back to their previous levels.
Jeff Teague is a good basketball player and a valuable fantasy asset. He has fit in well in Indiana and will be a top 50 guy, maybe better, the rest of the season. But with Monta Ellis's return looming, I just don't see him being on the same level as right now. Keeping him and enjoying the ride doesn't warrant a straitjacket but if you can get a top 25 player in return you probably should. Depending on your needs and what other owners in your fantasy league are willing to give up for Teague you could be looking at Klay Thompson, C.J. McCollum or if you're lucky someone like Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker or Al Horford.
Baller Move: Sell high
Time to Panic on Otto Porter?
Otto Porter is ranked at 20 in my Yahoo! 10 category (nine standard and double double's as the 10th cat) head to head league this season. And while that may be a bit far-fetched, his crazy efficiency and great defensive stats claim otherwise. He is averaging career highs across the board, apart from assists. Porter is scoring 13.4 PTS with 1.5 3PM on 53.0 FG% and 79.5 FT%, grabbing 7.0 rebounds, dishing out 1.4 dimes and topping it all off with 1.7 STL, 0.6 BLK and only 0.8 TO in 34 minutes of action. Now that is some mind blowing shooting and defending!
So what makes Porter a buy low guy? Well in his last nine games he has been slumping a bit. While the efficiency and defensive numbers are still there, his other stats are down. He hit double digit points in just four of those nine games. Before that he didn't score in double digits just four times in 19 games. His averages are down to 10.4 PTS with 1.3 3PM on 50.7% from the field and 80.0% from the line, 4.6 REB, 1.1 AST 1.1 STL, 0.8 BLK and 0.8 TO per game in that period.
And while the scoring and rebounding aren't there at the moment, his other stats didn't take a huge hit, and most importantly his minutes are still there, so his coach must believe he will be back to his former self too. It is necessary to mention that Porter left Washington's last game on Dec. 21 early due to back spasms, but had a heat pack on his back during the game so it seems that the Wizards were hoping he would be able to go back into the game if needed. He didn't and is being listed as questionable for the game against the Bucks on Dec. 23 so before making any rash decisions keep an eye on his situation.
So to a reckless fantasy owner Porter might seem to be slumping hard and he might be willing to "unload" Porter for a smaller piece of your fantasy team puzzle. If so, you wouldn't be unwise to take advantage. Furthermore, if you believe Porter, a guy who missed a total of 15 regular season games in the past two years combined, will be fine following his back injury and a recent drop in his performance you should by any means try to trade for him.
You could be able to get Otto for a guy like Trevor Ariza or someone hot but with a lower upside like Lou Williams or Eric Gordon. And if his owner is in "win now" mode or just panicking about the injury you could try to float an offer of Taj Gibson, Thaddeus Young or even Maurice Harkless.
Baller Move: Hold or buy low