Player values are constantly moving targets in daily leagues. A high profile player can put together a couple of big games and see his price tag skyrocket. Likewise, a couple of bad games can lead a player's stock to plummet. The correlation isn't always immediate, leading to some discrepancies in value.
Savvy DFS players can take advantage of falling values and avoid inflated prices to find the best value on a given night in the hopes of increased success. In this article, I will identify players whose anticipated value relative to their current price is on the rise, making them desirable targets. I will also name players whose value is dipping below their cost, making them players to fade.
Note: I will only be selecting players who are owned in at least 75% of Yahoo! leagues. Graphs are taken from SportingCharts.com's NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker and are indicative of values on 2/21/17.
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FanDuel Value Risers - Week 18
Kyle Lowry (PG, TOR) - Since his triple-double against Brooklyn, Lowry's FD point totals dropped to 38, 28, and 31 the next three games. This may be a good thing, as his his price has dropped closer to $8,500, yet his value is sure to jump back up with the addition of Serge Ibaka in the front court. His current valuation seems pretty fair, but an expected jump in production makes him a post-break Riser target.
Kemba Walker (PG/SG, CHA) - Aside from one huge spike in salary when it was widely assumed he would go for 50 points against Brooklyn (he only scored 17 on 20% shooting), Walker's value has been depressed due to a recent shooting slump. The good news is he seemed to snap out of it in the two games before the break, scoring 29 and 24 points, giving daily players over five times value. The extra rest will likely do him some good too, making this a perfect time to deploy Walker.
Nikola Vucevic (PF/C, ORL) - As you can see in graph form below, following Vucevic's DFS value this season has truly been a roller-coaster ride. The trade of big man Serge Ibaka should put a bit more offensive responsibility on his shoulders, however. Vucevic has maintained a fairly safe floor since mid-December, staying above 3x value in all but one game. If you're willing to accept moderate risk, peg him as a cheaper option at center.
Julius Randle (PF/C, LAL) - Injuries will always be a concern for the third-year player, but he put together a nice five-game stretch before All-Star festivities began. Randle had missed three of the previous four games, but proceeded to give daily owners at least 3.5x value over the next five. The soft schedule certainly helped; facing OKC and San Antonio this week won't do him any favors, but his cheap price tag make his a desirable add nonetheless. New President of Operations Magic Johnson should push the youth movement forward in a big way the rest of this lost season for the Lakers.
FanDuel Value Fallers - Week 18
Eric Gordon (SG, HOU) - Is the post-three-point-contest shooting slump real? We shall see for this year's winner. Even if you don't believe in jinxes, Gordon has been shooting the ball worse toward the second half of the season and has been out of the lineup several times since 2017 began. Gordon is showing a definite ceiling, breaking 30 FD points just twice in the last 20 games. Don't get carried away by his weekend glory.
Darren Collison (PG, SAC) - The addition of Tyreke Evans could spell the end of Collison's time as the starting point guard in Sacramento. He's reportedly on the trading block as well and could find his way to a backup role for a contender. If he stays, he'll be competing with Evans for minutes, although the two could share the floor at times. His value was already on a downward slide last week, so there is no justifiable reason to think he'll be an asset until things are sorted out by the trade deadline.
Draymond Green (SF/PF, GS) - Green certainly didn't go into the All-Star break on a high note. After a whopping 60 FD-point night against Memphis, he slumped for three straight games, down to 9.9 FD points against the depleted Kings. He should bounce back soon enough, but for now he simply isn't worth the price tag or the headaches.
DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C, NO) - OK, one down game before All-Star weekend shouldn't concern owners, especially now that he is switching jerseys. By all accounts, Cousins joining the Pelicans could make them a playoff team, but if you think he'll put up the same numbers sharing the front court with Anthony Davis as he did all by himself in Sacramento, you're rolling the dice. "Plays well with others" isn't Cousins' mantra, so it's best to take a wait-and-see approach before taking the $11K plunge with him this week.