If your guy is playing better than you were expecting him to for no apparent reason, you should count yourself lucky and enjoy it. But if you're unsure about whether of not he will continue to produce on such a level, you should consider not leaving it up to luck this time and try to move him while his stock is at it's highest.
On the other hand, there had to be a period when at least one of your players made you blow steam out your ears by knocking out dud after dud. Those players put our patience and our conception of his future outlook and value to the test. Sometimes holding pays off. Other times, it's worth trading him even for a hot player with lower upside. Especially if the ship goes all the way down and you jumped in the very last second.
Below are my Week 17 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high candidates. Take a look and decide for yourself if they're worth going to the market for.
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Are You for Real, Brook Lopez?
Brook Lopez is hovering around the top-10 in the last week with averages of 27.7 PTS with 2.7 3PM on 52.7 FG% and 77.3 FT%, 5.0 REB, 2.3 AST, 0.7 STL, 3.3 BLK and 1.7 TO in 33 minutes per game in his last three. He topped it all off with an insane performance on Feb. 15 scoring 36 points including six threes, hitting 12 of 20 of his field goals and 6 of 8 of his free throws, grabbing four rebounds, getting an assist and a steal, matching his career-high eight blocks and not turning the ball over a single time in 35 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. I'm not a big fan of those "selected stats" but he did become the first guy in the history of NBA to hit at least six three-pointers and block at least eight shots in a single game.
I actually really like Brook as a player. Heck, I even drafted him with my 27th overall pick to pair him up with Giannis Antetokounmpo in what was supposed to be a punt threes strategy. But then Brook decided he can shoot from beyond the arc. He is hitting 1.8 threes a game this season, which is astonishing if you consider that he only scored three in total over all of his previous (eight) NBA regular seasons.
Furthermore, Lopez has scored 20 or more points in 6 of his last 7 games and blocked a total of 19 shots in that period. Those blocks have him behind only Anthony Davis in that period. Lovely stats from the big man as the fantasy playoffs are approaching. And Brooklyn has four games in each of the three weeks in which most fantasy playoffs take place (Default Playoffs Start: 3/13; Default Playoffs End: 4/2). All those facts point towards Lopez' owners sitting back and enjoying the ride. But it's not that simple. It never is, is it?
There are a few red flags when it comes to Lopez, and even more Brooklyn. First of all his share of injury problems, the biggest one being the broken foot in December of 2013. Luckily, that's not a recurring issue and he hasn't had any major injuries since November of 2015 when he had a sore foot. If Lopez gets even a mildly serious injury scare, Brooklyn might shut down their best player and most valuable trading chip for the season. Moreover, Brooklyn is already resting Lopez on most back-to-back sets and the Nets have one of those in each of the three weeks in which fantasy playoffs take place.
Lopez has also been a subject of fantasy rumors for a long time now, dating back to last season, so he might even get traded before the deadline. That would save him from the rest and shut down scares, but would most probably hurt his fantasy value. He is the go-to guy and the best player in Brooklyn, and it's highly unlikely that he would have the same status in any other team that he is likely to get traded to. New Orleans was mentioned the most so far, and we all know Davis is the superstar there.
There is no question about it, Brook Lopez is a great basketball player and a great fantasy contributor. But I wouldn't blame you if you want to avoid all the uncertainty and the drama surrounding him and the Nets at this time. You should be looking to get someone around the top-30 in return. Gordon Hayward or Kemba Walker could be obtainable in a right situation, and if his owner is tired of his sub-par performances, so could even the hero of our next story Myles Turner. Kristaps Porzingis is also on a cold streak, and it's very debatable who contributes more to their fantasy team between him and Lopez, but Porzingis is a safer bet. Furthermore, in case Carmelo Anthony gets traded his value might skyrocket.
Baller Move: Sell high
Time to Panic on Myles Turner?
Sorry I had you guys read a novel on my man Brook Lopez, I'll try to keep it short on Turner. It's quite simple. Huge upside guy who slowed down a bit in February. Let's compare his stats from before his drop off and after. He came into the month of February with averages of 15.9 PTS with 0.7 3PM on 53.8 FG% and 79.9 FT%, 7.5 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 2.3 BLK and 1.4 TO in 30 minutes a game. Since then those stats came down to 14.0 PTS with 0.4 3PM on 42.3 FG% and 80.0 FT%, 5.4 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 1.3 BLK and 1.3 TO. The only real improvement is in the assist category, but there are substantial decreases in points, FG%, rebounds and blocks.
The good news is that Turner didn't score in double-digits just once in his last 27 games since Dec. 20. He has also picked his offensive game up a bit in his last three with 18.3 points on 45.9 FG% and 2.7 assists. His rebounds and blocks are still down though.
Turner is a great young player with high upside and his game translates to fantasy very well. You should be more than eager to get a player of his capabilities on your roster. An offer of around top-35 could be enough if his owner is getting impatient with him, and you can go even higher if his upside in FG% and blocks is something your team needs. C.J. McCollum, Kemba Walker or Mike Conley could persuade Turner's owner to give him up if he is in need of a guard. Also Nikola Vucevic is on a hot streak, and if your trade partner is riding the "Ibaka is gone" high, he might be willing to make the swap. By the way, Vooch is still being shopped around by the Magic, so it would be wise to deal him now at a right price to avoid that whole situation.
Baller Move: Hold or buy low