Player values are constantly moving targets in daily leagues. A high profile player can put together a couple of big games and see his price tag skyrocket. Likewise, a couple of bad games can lead a player's stock to plummet. The correlation isn't always immediate, leading to some discrepancies in value.
Savvy DFS players can take advantage of falling values and avoid inflated prices to find the best value on a given night in the hopes of increased success. In this article, I will identify players whose anticipated value relative to their current price is on the rise, making them desirable targets. I will also name players whose value is dipping below their cost, making them players to fade.
Note: I will only be selecting players who are owned in at least 75% of Yahoo! leagues. Graphs are taken from SportingCharts.com's NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker and are indicative of values on 2/28/17.
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FanDuel Value Risers - Week 19
Chris Paul (PG, LAC) - He's baaaack... If you were playing it slow with Paul after he missed a month's worth of playing time, wait no longer. His near triple-double, including 17 dimes, should help his salary shoot back up to previous levels. In the meantime, he should be worth his pre-injury value for what promises to be a high-scoring game against Houston, followed by easy games against Milwaukee and Chicago.
Nicolas Batum (SG/SF, CHA) - After a rough shooting stretch in the four games following the break, Batum dropped 31 along with eight boards against the Clippers. He's also logged 40+ minutes in two of the last three games. Batum has provided fairly consistent value all season, but with a slate of losing teams on the schedule this week, he could stay at 6x value or higher.
DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF, TOR) - DeRozan has 113 points in the last three games, shooting over 50% in each of them. With Kyle Lowry out for the remainder of the regular season, he is now nearly elevated to the Westbrook/Harden chalk level in daily play. His usage rate is over 40 without Lowry this season, so expect similar point production.
Danilo Gallinari (SF, DEN) - The mere fact that he is playing is noteworthy. Since his latest injury, Gallinari is averaging about 20 points and six boards. Although he was a better play last week when his ownership levels were lower, he is still good for around 30 FD points a night and represents a decent value.
Anthony Davis (PF/C, NO) - Looks like the Boogie/Unibrow combo is working out pretty well so far. Not as far as actually winning games, but we just care about the fantasy aspect here. Davis' production has predictably gone up with Cousins alleviating pressure in the front court, freeing him up for more open looks. He has gone off for almost 40 points twice in a row in road contests, including a matchup at OKC. It's hard to imagine his price not rebounding quickly, but if you don't think he's worth playing for $10K, what do you expect?
FanDuel Value Fallers - Week 19
Eric Bledsoe (PG, PHO) - Bledsoe's triple-double against the Lakers was followed by diminishing returns the next two games (39 and 32 FD points). The larger concern is the talk of losing playing time while the team works toward developing younger players like Tyler Ulis. Bledsoe tends to run hot and cold as it is, so the chances of him seeing a rest day make him an even riskier play, despite the upside.
Otto Porter (SG, WAS) - One of the most pleasant surprises of the season, Porter just doesn't look like the same player post-break. He's averaging eight points a game since the All-Star break, with no more than seven rebounds in a game. It could just be a mini-slump, but Porter doesn't yet have the track record to prove that he can snap out of it quickly. For that same $6300 price point, you're better off going with Gallinari.
Marcin Gortat (C, WAS) - Another Wizard who is sliding downward as February comes to a close, Gortat hasn't returned 4x value over the last two weeks. The rebounding numbers are there (about nine per game), but he has a total of two blocked shots in the last four games. He isn't a must-fade, but with the shaky way the Wiz have been playing, it could be a bad sign for the Wizards' second-level fantasy players.
Pau Gasol (PF/C, SA) - This may seem like a curious pick for someone who just returned from injury, but this situation is far different from Chris Paul's. The Spurs seem to like Dwayne Dedmon in the starting lineup and want to ease Gasol back from injury, so don't expect heavy minutes right away. Gasol looked sharp in his first game back against the Clippers, hitting 5-7 from the field and grabbing 11 rebounds. Here's a reminder that he has been consistently inconsistent all season long and will certainly see the occasional rest day that Coach Pop gives his veterans down the stretch. Approach with caution before inserting him into your DFS lineups.