Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ) - Fantasy Football Draft Value

BALLER MOVE: Target ~60

CURRENT ADP: ~70

ANALYSIS: Bilal Powell had a solid 2016 campaign even with Matt Forte as the starter. In fact, the only real difference between the two was Forte getting the edge in touchdowns at seven to Powell's three. Powell, however, had a greater presence in the passing game. Throw in two games of over 100 rushing yards over the last four weeks and Powell had himself a severely underrated year. Believe it or not, this was a lot closer to a timeshare than you'd think.

Basing future fantasy success on recency bias can backfire so it's always wiser to too look ahead rather than behind. Matt Forte is already 31 years old, three years older than Bilal Powell. For as tough of a competitor as he is, Forte's days as a lead back are numbered. Now would be the right time to bet on that happening. Even if it ends up being a similar split, there's a good chance Powell ends up as the "starter" based on age, health, and production.

The other key aspect to keep in mind is that Forte is a "big name." Forte will almost certainly go higher than Powell in most fantasy drafts. That alone makes Powell a hot commodity since he'll have better draft day value. Expect the Jets to limit Forte's touches in 2017, leaving plenty of room for Bilal Powell to assume a larger workload.