Rob Kelley (RB, WAS) - Fantasy Football Draft Value

BALLER MOVE: Target ~75

CURRENT ADP: ~87

ANALYSIS: Rob Kelley going in what basically amounts to the ninth round is pretty absurd to me. He's a starting running back on a great offense who has already shown he can produce.

The reason he's being looked over is two-fold. First, folks look at his year-long stat line and dismiss him as being unproductive, overlooking the fact that he wasn't the starter for the first half of the year.

Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Kelley totaled 601 yards and six touchdowns. That's more yards than Devonta Freeman and more touchdowns than Jordan Howard over that span. Extend that line over the course of a full season and you're looking at roughly 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. That's borderline RB1 value in today's NFL. Obviously the TDs are much harder to replicate, but the overall production is there if you think long-term.

The other, more common knock on Kelley is the presence of rookie Samaje Perine. There's a tendency to romanticize rookie running backs as "threats to steal the starting gig," a concept that gets over stated every year. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it's warranted (see: Jordan Howard) sometimes it isn't (see: Derrick Henry.) The truth is, we don't really know. We've already heard that Perine is behind in camp, pretty much assuring that Kelley will have a long leash to start the year.

Expect him to maintain a hold on the position, returning great value in your fantasy football drafts.