Brook Lopez: Fantasy Basketball's Biggest Bust?

7 years ago by Andre Liu

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Hey guys, I'm new here at RotoBaller. Just a basketball numbers guy trying to make some moves out here. I appreciate any feedback so always hit me up on Twitter @undraliu (especially if you want to nerd out over the NBA or if you want to say nice things to me)

Among the crazy off season moves made this summer, the Brook Lopez trade was somewhat swept under the rug. But Timofey Mozgov's ugly contract and D'Angelo Russell for Brook Lopez and the pick that became MVP candidate Kyle Kuzma was looking pretty good for the Lakers. Brook Lopez was going to be the veteran glue guy, possibly the best actual player on the starting five that would get the young Lakers squad into win mode.

However, Lopez just hasn't put up the numbers that he was expected to, and there are some nights where he barely scrapes by with some points, disappointing fans mightily. Lopez was projected to be drafted between the 3rd and 4th round in fantasy drafts, and, while skimming through the emotional rants of Reddit, I've even seen people drop Lopez off their rosters straight up. Is this "slump" something fans should be worried about? Let's break it down.

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Brook "lyn misses you" Lopez - What's the Deal?

24 games into his 10th season in the NBA, Brook Lopez is currently averaging 13.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists with shooting splits of 44.5%/29.5%/79.1%. For 9 category head to head fantasy league matchups, he's playing 23 minutes per game, averaging 11 shots per game with 4 three-point shots attempted per game. He's going to the line 2.8 times a game with average of 0.4 steals, 1.7 blocks (!!), and 1.7 turnovers. Not exactly impressive for a potential 3rd rounder... Lopez currently has a usage rate of 25.1% which is the lowest he's been used since his sophomore season. He's also playing the lowest number of minutes he's ever played in a season average. SOUND THE ALARMS. Well, not yet.

In his previous season with the Nets (the most accurate comparison stats-wise because he started shooting 3 pointers at a strong clip), he averaged 20.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists with shooting splits of 47.4%/34.6%/81%. He was playing 29.6 minutes per game, taking 15.6 shots per game with 5.2 threes attempted (!!). He shot 4.9 free throws per game with 0.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, and a usage rate of 29%. Granted, he was playing with a much worse team with no direction, so his numbers were a bit elevated. But it's very clear that Lopez has declined in terms of statistics.

Small sample size is key here, especially since we are only a quarter into the regular season. A big discernible difference is the dip in his 3-point shooting percentage. That should pick up, seeing as he's shooting a similar number of 3 pointers a game. Another thing holding Brook back is the jam log of a front court the Lakers currently wield. Kyle Kuzma, Larry Nance Jr., and Julius Randle all play the 4. Randle sometimes slides to center when the Lakers play small. At the center position, Brook Lopez starts and is backed up by Andrew Bogut, Ivica Zubac, and Thomas "Not Kobe" Bryant. Kuzma has been surprisingly good as a rookie, Randle has recently been playing better, and Nance Jr. missed 11 games with a fractured hand. Coach Luke Walton is still figuring out how he wants his crowded front court options to be played, and Lopez has suffered slightly during this period.

An interesting point is that Randle's name has been thrown around in trade theories, and it's very possible that any of the Lakers' centers could be before the trade deadline, freeing Lopez up for less shared minutes.

In Walton's scheme and young roster, Lopez seems to be used more for his defensive discipline and ability to spread the floor rather than his raw scoring ability. The roster is abundant with hot-handed scorers like starting rookies Kuzma and Lonzo Ball. But these freshmen also happen to be black holes on defense. Lopez acting a defensive anchor is much more valuable in real-life play rather than fantasy value.

Looking at two-man lineup data, players have the strongest defensive rating when paired with Lopez. Kuzma and Randle share a 106.7 DEFRating in 352 minutes played together, while Kuzma and Lopez share a 103.9 DEFRating in 282 minutes played together. Most interestingly, Nance Jr. and Lopez share a 100.0 DEFRating in 237 minutes played together. Brook Lopez: Defensive Anchor. Lopez finds himself in a new team scheme where winning actually matters (and is possible). His situation is not unlike Indiana's Myles Turner, who is losing a lot of fantasy value to Victor Oladipo. Turner is providing massive defensive value at the cost of his offensive stats. The same applies for Lopez.

Advice Going Forward

Don't be rash. Don't drop Brook Lopez!

It’s always hard to buy low on a more well-known player, but if you can flip Lopez for mid-round value big man like Enes Kanter or Pau Gasol, I would jump at it.

Brook Lopez’s rebounding was never that high and it's mostly his scoring that has fallen accompanied with poor shooting. Lopez could benefit from a trade later down the line. His upside still exists and he's arguably still the Lakers' best player. Be patient with Lopez and hold on in fantasy leagues for his 3 pointers and consistent blocks with the potential for low quality double doubles.