RADIO
If you held onto Aaron Rodgers after Anthony Barr broke his collarbone with a questionable hit in Week 6, congratulations, your stick-to-itiveness is about to pay off handsomely. Thanks to a cake schedule, an improved run-game, and a couple half-decent performances from Brett Hundley, the Packers stayed alive in the NFC playoff race while Rodgers was sidelined.
After their Week 13 win over Tampa, their odds to win Super Bowl 52 were +5400 according to the futures aggregator at sportsbettingdime.com, well ahead of division rival Detroit. Their Week 14 win over Cleveland has only improved their prospects, meaning that there is every reason in the world to put Rodgers back under center in the final three weeks of the season, especially in Week 15, as they face one of the teams they are trying to track down for the second Wild Card spot, Carolina.
Rodgers was playing some of the best football of his career through five weeks, and was averaging over 26 fantasy points per game before his injury, including three straight games with at least 29. Granted, he wasn’t playing the best defenses during that run (Bengals, Bears, Cowboys), but a 117.8 passer rating is uber-impressive no matter who you’re lining up against.
The glass-half-empty folks may be a little pessimistic on Rodgers’ forecast for a couple reasons. First and foremost, he hasn’t played in eight weeks, and it may take a quarter or two to get his timing back. That’s a quarter or two you can’t afford in the fantasy playoffs. Second, he faces a fairly difficult three-game stretch to close the season, visiting the Panthers this week, hosting the Vikings in Week 16, and then travelling to Detroit in Week 17 (for you Neanderthals who play in 17-week leagues).
All three of those teams have been tough on opposing QBs this year, especially the Vikings and Panthers, which are the two teams that 16-week players care about. In ESPN leagues, Carolina is giving up just 14.4 fantasy PPG to quarterbacks (10th overall), and the Vikings are even stingier at 13.2 (6th). (Detroit is 14th at 16.4 PPG.)
But Rodgers’ upside is too high to get away from. “Start your studs” is a tired cliché, and you should never blindly insert anyone into your roster, particularly come playoff time. But Rodgers at his best is matchup-proof, and he tends to be at his best when it matters most. Last season, with the division title still in the balance in Weeks 16 and 17, Rodgers went full neutron bomb on Minnesota and Detroit, throwing for 647 yards and eight touchdowns in the two games combined. As usual, he didn’t toss a single interception, and at the end of the day, rewarded owners with over 70 fantasy points (36 vs Minnesota; 34 vs Detroit on ESPN).
While you can’t expect that level of production against Carolina and Minnesota over the next two Sundays, you can expect a highly motivated Rodgers to be looking for the detonator switch.
