RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! For the third straight year, the Phoenix Open was decided in a playoff. Gary Woodland outlasted Chez Reavie to win is third PGA Tournament and first since 2014. And for the second week in a row, one of my 20 players I picked won the event. I understand give out 20 players, but at least one of them was the winner.
In this article, I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The PGA Tour heads north again to Pebble Beach in Monterey County, CA, two hours south of San Francisco. This tournament will have a three course rotation; Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC, and Monterey Peninsula CC (shore course). There will be two rounds played at Pebble Beach and once at the latter two. Monterey is the easiest course, Pebble is average, and Spyglass the hardest.
All three courses play to under 7,000 yards, are par-72, and feature inarguably the smallest greens on tour (they are also poa annua greens). It could get windy and chilly under and those conditions, can play like a links-style course. Hitting fairways are easy and the rough length is short.
Pebble Beach is also home to one of the most famous holes in the world, the par-3 7th.
We will also see many celebrities take the field in the Pro-Am event such as Wayne Gretzky, Bill Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald, and Steve Young among many others.
My custom stat model will be focusing on SG: Approach (30%), proximity from 100-125 yards (25%), Greens-in-regulation gained (20%), scrambling (15% ), and birdie or better gained (10%). Approach shots are vital here, because the greens are so small. Same goes for proximity and GIR. If you find yourself in the rough off the green, which is likely to happen, you will need to scramble well to save par. The average score here has been -17 the past five years, so that's why I gave 10% towards birdies.
Past winners include, beginning from last year: Jordan Spieth, Vaughn Taylor, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Snedeker, Phil Mickelson, D.A. Points, and Dustin Johnson.
Spieth has the most SG:T at this event followed by Walker, Patrick Reed, Snedeker, and Jason Day.
These rankings account for the last 24 rounds at these three courses and all courses. There is also the possibility for high weekend winds so I factored that into the all courses ranking. I factored poa annual greens into the three courses rankings. I will reference both rankings below.
With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson ($11,700), Jon Rahm ($11,400), Rory McIlroy ($11,100), Jason Day ($10,900), and Jordan Spieth ($10,700).
D.J. is a complete hit-or-miss player. He'll either miss the cut or finish top-5. This is his first tournament since winning the Tournament of Champions the first week of January. The past seven years, he's had four top-5's, including a third last year, and one missed cut. I must add that he gains about two strokes in the wind so if he makes the cut, he'll be firing on all cylinders this weekend. I'm going to pass on his enormous salary.
Rahm has been near or atop the leaderboard the past two weeks, but he's had awful final rounds shooting a 77 two weeks ago and 72 last week. He's another great wind player, but until he gets his final-round jitters out, his salary isn't worth it.
McIlroy will be making his PGA Tour debut. He was T-3 at the ABU Dhabi HSBC Championship and runner-up two weeks ago at the Dubai Desert Classic. This is a links-style course, something Europeans grow up playing so I think there's value here, but be careful. He missed the cut at the 2010 U.S. Open here and this will be his first time competing at this tournament.
Day won two weeks ago and took last week off. He has not missed a cut the past seven years here, including five finishes inside the top-11. I'll throw him in several of my lineups. He's affordable.
Spieth's price dropped $700 after missing the cut last week which was shocking. He's made six consecutive cuts here including four top-10's and winning last year. He's a player I really like especially with ownership expected to drop after last week's performance. I'm a tad nervous about his not-so-strong wind play, but to get the defending champ at this price is too good.
Middle-Priced Players
Phil Mickelson ($9,600) - He's off a vintage Phil performance last week finishing fifth. He has not missed a cut in his five past AT&T's, including winning it and finishing runner-up two years ago. He was also T-4 in 2010 at the U.S. Open. He's number one in proximity 100-125 yards over the course of the past five tournaments. He's a very strong putter on poa surfaces. And we all know Phil can dial up his famous flop-shot whenever he's in trouble.
Paul Casey ($9,400) - This is the first of several European players I'll be going with so get used to it. And him being European makes him a good wind player automatically. His first event of the new year was three weeks ago at Abu Dhabi where he finished T-9. He has never played at this tournament, but did compete at the 2010 U.S. Open finishing T-40.
Matt Kuchar ($8,800) - He was my favorite player last year, and I'm kicking myself for not choosing him last week where he finished T-5. He missed the cut here last year, but did finish T-6 at the 2010 U.S. Open. Kooooch is also a great wind player gaining nearly two strokes in the tough conditions.
Chesson Hadley ($8,500) - He's improved the past three weeks going from T-42, to T-23, to T-5 last week. He'll see an ownership spike. He missed the cut two years ago, but finished 10th both the two years prior. If he makes the cut, he'll be right there considering he gains nearly 1.5 strokes in the wind.
Patrick Reed ($7,900) - Captain America has had a quietly good past two tourneys finishing T-23 at the Farmers and T-17 at Phoenix. He's made seven consecutive cuts at Pebble with two top-10's. I'm not sure how his price went from $8,400 to $7,600 to now $7,900. He may be ranked 57th in my overall rankings, but is 11th in rankings of these three courses.
Kevin Chappell ($7,900) - CBS Sportsline also loves Chappell this week. Number one in my overall rankings. He was T-31 last week after a T-6 at the Career Builder. He's made three of the past four cuts at this tourney with his best finish 18th. He gains around 1,5 strokes in the wind so that's another reason to like him.
Jimmy Walker ($7,700) - He's number one in my three courses rankings probably because of his strong putting on poa surfaces. He's made seven consecutive cuts here and even won in 2014.
Charley Hoffman ($7,300) - The native Californinan had a fine performance at the Farmers two weeks ago finishing T-35 and then another fine showing last week placing T-26. He's good in the wind and on poa. He missed the cut here last year, but that won't be the case this year.
Kevin Streelman ($7,300) - Another good windy player. He's a perfect 3-for-3 in cuts made in 2018, and has placed in the top-20 the past two years here.
Robert Garrigus ($7,100) - He gains about 1.5 strokes when it's windy. He followed up his T-8 at the Farmers with a T-52 last week. He's 4-for-6 in cuts made here since 2012 including a 23rd last year.
Steve Stricker ($7,100) - This will be his third consecutive year competing here; he missed the cut in 2016 and finished 23rd last year.
Low-Priced Players
Jason Kokrak ($6,900) - He's second in my rankings on the three courses for this event. He's 4-for-6 in cuts made with now top-10.
Kelly Kraft ($6,900) - He gains about 1.15 strokes gained in the wind. He is off three straight missed cuts, but is 3-for-3 win cuts made at Pebble including a runner-up last year.
Padraig Harrington ($6,800) - He missed the cut last week, but his European roots will suit him well this week. He's competed here the past six years and alternated making the cut with missing it. Last year he missed it so this year he will make it.
Luke Donald ($6,800) - He gains about a stroke in the wind. He missed the cut at the Farmers last week. but finished 26th two years ago and 23rd last year at Pebble.
Hunter Mahan ($6,800) - He's a good putter on poa surfaces. Although he missed the cut here last week, he made five consecutive cuts until missing it last year.
Graeme McDowell ($6,600) - Another good wind player and it makes sense because he's European. I'll look past his two missed cuts in January on the European Tour because he won the U.S. Open here in 2010 and was seventh in 2014 at this tourney.
Rick Lamb ($6,500) - He played in one event in 2018 and missed the cut at the Career Builder. He was 62nd last year.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
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Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
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