Addison Reed (RP, MIN) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~200

CURRENT ADP:  260

ANALYSIS: Reed is currently being drafted right around pick 260. He’s going after at least 25 other relief pitchers, one of whom is teammate Fernando Rodney. This is the same Addison Reed who has posted a 2.29 ERA since going to the Mets in September of 2015. That 2.29 ERA ranks 10th in baseball among relief pitchers with at least 80 IP since September 2015. Reed’s wOBA against of .251 ranks 11th in baseball among that same demographic in the same time frame. The 29-year-old has a K% of 27.5%, a paltry walk rate of 4.9% since September 2015.

In short, Reed has been a completely new pitcher since beginning his tenure in Queens. Most outlets have Fernando Rodney, the elder statesman, as the Twins projected closer, but I do not expect that role to last long for Rodney if he even manages to win the job out of Spring Training. Rodney has blown 14.0% of his 192 save opportunities dating back to 2013. This is not a terrible percentage, but most teams would prefer someone with a better success rate than that. The save rate is not even the worst of it, though. Since the start of 2015, Rodney has a 4.12 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, and a 4.5 BB/9, all pretty middling numbers. Again, not awful, but I’d hardly classify that as closer material. Expect Reed to pick up the closer’s role for a Twins team that will be trying to make the playoffs. Scoop up Reed a few rounds prior to his ADP and reap the rewards once he takes over the ninth inning role for the Twins.