Matt Olson (1B/OF, OAK) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~95

CURRENT ADP:  123

ANALYSIS: Prior to Matt Olson’s 2017 debut, Fangraphs slapped a 40 hit tool and a 45 game power tool (with 50 potential) on Olson. He proceeded to make them and just about every other prospect ranking site look absolutely silly. In only 216 PA, Olson triple-slashed .259/.352/.651 with 24 HR! The strikeout rate of 27.8% leaves a little to desire, but the 10.2% walk rate demonstrated the 23-year-old rookie’s advanced plate approach. Plus, if Olson is going to produce at 62% above league average with a .411 wOBA and .392 ISO, he can strike out 40% of the time and you still shouldn’t care.

Olson probably is not going to maintain his 41.4% HR/FB, but a HR/FB around 24-25% seems reasonable. Given that Olson puts the ball in the air nearly half the time (46.0% of his PA), the homers will be there in 2018. He won’t put up a 70-HR pace, but he is basically a lock for 30 big flies with regular playing time and could threaten 40 or even 45 HR. Obviously, in leagues that count average instead of OBP or leagues that penalize for strikeouts, Olson’s stock takes a hit, but a 40-homer first baseman is worth a lot more than a 13th-round pick in 10-team leagues. Scoop up Olson at the back end of the top-100 and sit back as your top-five first baseman does work for your fantasy team.