Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX) - 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~136

CURRENT ADP: 159

ANALYSIS: Nomar Mazara was drafted in 2017 with sky-high expectations after a surprisingly effective 2016 season. Unfortunately, the 22-year old largely disappointed, producing a .253/.323.422 triple slash and 20 HR with just 64 runs scored. Mazara’s sophomore season was marred by an inconsistent approach at the plate, sometimes pressing and trying to make something out of nothing, thereby reducing his contact rate to 75.7% from 80.7% in 2016. To top it off, the outfielder posted a .228/.276/.380 line over the last month of the season.

But with all of the pessimism surrounding Mazara, he actually showed overall improvement in his approach across the season, swinging less at pitches outside of the strike zone with a O-Swing% of 32.9% while swinging at more pitches inside the strike zone with a Z-Swing% of 65.4%. He made harder contact, with a .170 ISO overall and a jump in Hard% to 32.6%.

While the vast majority of Mazara’s struggles came against lefties, he excelled against righties in 2017. Of his 20 HR, 19 were against right-handed pitching. Most critically, Mazara struck out far less and walked far more often against righties, to the tune of 0.23 BB/K against lefties vs. 0.49 BB/K against righties.

Nomar Mazara offers a much higher floor than his current ADP suggests. Worst case scenario, he can be deployed as effective platoon bat. Best case scenario, he puts it together a year later than everyone thought he would and produces like the top 20 outfielder he could be. Remember, he’ll be playing all of 2018 at the ripe old age of 23 and is going into his third season in the bigs. Few options around 125^th overall, let alone where he’s currently being drafted at 159, offer that combo of high upside and high floor.