RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~245
CURRENT ADP: 302
ANALYSIS: Fantasy owners are showing a lot more love to Oakland’s other Matt- Olson, natch – in drafts this spring, but don’t forget about Chapman. In his FanGraphs player capsule, Alex Chamberlain referred to Chapman as “a less-extreme Joey Gallo,” which seems an apt comparison. Chapman does not have Gallo’s raw power (hey, few do), but he has enough of it to comfortably project 30 home runs given his extreme fly ball tendencies.
Making his major league debut mid-June, the 24-year-old Chapman impressed with 14 HRs, 39 runs and 40 RBI in 84 games. Although the homer count was acceptable, his 13.9% HR/FB ranked 144th out of 287 hitters with over 300 PAs. Chapman could be your cheap source for power, in 320 career minor league games, he socked 80 HRs. His pace accelerated in Triple-A with 16 dingers in 204 PAs last season prior to his call-up. He's a heavy flyball hitter (50.5%) and his minor league indicators suggests a HR/FB approaching 20%.
At his 28.2% strikeout rate, Chapman's poor .234 average last year appears appropriate. A 16.8% IFFB% also dilutes his extreme flyball pace. However, Chapman's plate approach seems good enough and should improve with experience. There are whispers of Chapman as a Joey Gallo-lite at a 170-pick discount. His ADP is a worthwhile risk for a chance at 30 longballs and 75 runs and RBI.
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